It's the Boris sausage machine for sure ...
Hang on to your apron strings ... Boris Johnson is set walk into Number Ten as the next Prime Minister of Great Britain.
Johnson is set for a landslide victory according to the latest poll numbers. He is backed by 74% of Tory voters. Jeremy Hunt, is supported by just 26% according to a YouGov/Times poll.
Significantly, 90% of believe Boris Johnson will force through a no-deal Brexit. Just 27% think My Hunt would push through the no deal resolution. "Boris and Brexit" is emerging as the second greatest threat to the world economy. We have "Trump and Tariffs" in top spot despite the sound bites and photo ops emerging from the President's visit to the East last week.
The race to find a personality for Hunt just ran out of time, despite the substantial resources committed to the project. The candidate declared last week, he was "happy" for people to hunt foxes with horse and hound. The Hunt campaign position on cock fighting, bear baiting and bare knuckle fighting was not revealed.
What is it about the Tories and fox hunting? You may recall Theresa May decided to include a review in the Tory manifesto in 2017. Hardly a vote winner, the Hunt campaign team appear to have forgotten completely the irrelevance of this anachronistic pastime, to the majority of voters.
Boris Johnson is on a winning rampage. So proud to have a sausage named after him this week, the "Boris sausage" man has put his weight behind plans to erect an enormous sausage overlooking the AI(M). It could dwarf the angel of the North, it is said. It would be a firm, long lasting, commitment to the Northern Powerhouse at least.
The New Prime Minister, promises to make Great Britain Great again, unify the country and deliver a no deal Brexit. In office on the 22nd of this month, the one hundred day honeymoon, would continue until the 30th of October. Just one day, then remaining to deliver the deal, well good luck with all that ...
Not being taken for suckers ...
Trump declared in Osaka last week, the US is not "being taken for suckers anymore", a great transition since he entered the Oval Office as president. Not being taken for suckers? The world is perplexed by the mixed messages from inside the Oval Office.
This week, the President enjoyed his military parade. The 4th July celebrations, were high jacked by the White House. The Trump speech included a reference to the great success of the American soldier in the revolutionary wars of 1775 to 1783. A success most heroic augmented by the President's claim "Our army, manned the air, it rammed the ramparts, it took over the airports, it did everything it had to do." Yeah like taking over airports, flying planes, great planes and things ... history never a strong point for the 45th President of the United States.
Trump and Tariffs, trade wars are weighing on the world economy. Mark Carney Governor of the Bank of England warned this week, trade tensions triggered by Donald Trump’s tariff policies could “shipwreck” the global economy. "They are having a chilling effect on growth."
World leaders are confused. Kim Jong-un received an invitation to the White House last week. This week the North Korean leader warned the U.S. is hell bent on hostile acts. How else to explain the invitation to the White House coinciding with the call to the U.N to implement tougher sanctions on Pyongyang.
China made the position clear this week, the U.S. must remove all the tariffs placed on Chinese goods as a condition for reaching a trade deal. “If the two sides are to reach a deal, all imposed tariffs must be removed,” Ministry of Commerce Spokesman Gao Feng said on Thursday. “China’s attitude is clear and consistent.”
Korea, China in confusion, Trump turned on Vietnam. The President expressed displeasure when asked about unfair trading practices, calling Vietnam “almost the single worst abuser of everybody.” The U.S. Commerce Department imposed duties of more than 400% on steel imports from the South East Asian country in response.
The Trump administration took a shot at Scotch whiskey in the latest trade spat with the E.U. A $4 billion catalogue of European goods is now threatened with tariffs on products including Scotch whisky and Edam cheese.
The latest world trade data confirms volume growth has stalled in the first quarter of 2019 compared to a 3.4% growth last year. The slowdown became evident through the year as manufacturing growth slowed around the word. Trump and Tariffs, Boris and Brexit, the two biggest threats to world growth. Lessons from history, so true, self imposed injuries are always the worst ...
E.U. open for business ...
Job growth in the U.S. this week confirmed the economy will continue to enjoy the ten year plus period of economic expansion. The trade deficit increased in May, despite the imposition of tariffs.
The President continued his assault on the Federal Reserve."If we had a Fed that would lower interest rates, we would be like a rocket ship".
A rocket ship overheating and heading for a crash. The President's grasp of macro economics is as well grounded as his grasp of aeronautical history.
The European Union on the other hand has decided to just "get on with it". While the Trump administration walks away from trade deals and throws up ever more barriers to free trade, the rest of the world is racing headlong to deepen globalization, according to Foreign Policy magazine. U.S. consumers are paying higher prices at home, and U.S. producers are facing greater obstacles for their exports.
“We reinforce multilateral agreements whilst others rip them up,” EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom said on Twitter Wednesday.
After 20 years, the EU and four Latin American countries making up the Mercosur customs union finally completed a sweeping trade deal covering almost $100 billion worth of bilateral trade a year. Days later, as the Trump administration sanctioned Vietnam, the EU and Vietnam announced a new free trade deal.
The Mercosur countries of Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay, together with the EU, are set to become the world's biggest trade bloc by the end of the year, dwarfing the free trade area between, the E.U and Japan.
China will look to Europe as a great trading partner. The world is not dependent on the U.S. The period of adjustment may be a little painful in the short term.
The E.U. has an ambitious free trade agenda. The U.K would benefit from a Brexit deal which includes membership of the single market and the customs union ... no need then for the Northern Ireland back stop ... The UK needs more than a free trade deal with the Faroe Islands ...
That's all for this week, have a great weekend. We will be back with more news and updates next week!
The Saturday Economist
John Ashcroft publishes the Saturday Economist. Join the mailing list for updates on the UK and World Economy.
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