![]() This week the ONS released the latest data on Public Sector Borrowing. Good news for the government and for the Chancellor, January's budget surplus was £9.4 billion, the highest recorded for seventeen years. Borrowing for the year to January fell by £13.6 billion, down to £49.3 billion compared to the same period last year. For the year as a whole, the out turn for the year could be some £12 billion below the £68 billion forecast in the Autumn statement. Revisions to the year as a whole have improved the outlook. The January actual was just £0.3 billion compared to January 2016. The budget, just days away, the Chancellor has the option to reduce borrowing more quickly, increase spending or reduce taxes. The Copeland win has left Labour in disarray. Analysts will be advising Theresa May a landslide victory could be on the agenda. No need to pay for a landslide or a lead in the polls for that matter. The Chancellor will exercise caution. Modest spending increases in the Red Box, some savings banked, as the numbers add up for spreadsheet Phil. Economic news this week ... GDP second estimate ... The second estimate of GDP in the final quarter of the year was released this week. Growth in 2016 is now estimated to be 1.8% compared to preliminary estimates of 2% growth. Household spending is supporting the recovery, with spending up by 3.1%. Investment fell. Business investment was down by -1.5%. Overall investment was up by just 0.5%. Exports were up by 1.4% as imports increased by 2.5%. The trade deficit increased from £45.4 billion to £52.2 billion. Growth data slightly disappointing, the data will provide some reassurance for the Chancellor. Caution will be the guideline for the Budget statement. This week, Bank of England MPC members were in front of the Treasury Select Committee, a review of the February Inflation Report. Andy Haldane talked about weather forecasting, Gertjan Vlieghe discussed doubts about the forecasts and their inability to predict the next recession. Ian McCafferty talked about his reluctance to accept the new estimate of U*, the now preferred term for the meandering NAIRU. U* had been revised down to 4.5% from 5.1%. McCafferty would have preferred 4.75%. The Bank has been under pressure for consistently over forecasting a growth in earnings. It is understandable. Our chart analyses the relationship between earnings and pressure in the jobs market. (We use the ratio of vacancies to jobs by sector as the measure). Construction is the outlier. Health, social care, financial and professional services under perform. Low skilled sectors, wholesale, retail, transport, distribution out perform. A conundrum. Adjusting the meandering NAIRU will not help. Pinning the tail on the donkey may provide a better forecasting technique ... West Wing ... Whisky Tango Foxtrot ... Steve Bannon appeared at CPAC 2017 this week. In an unusual public appearance, the grand plan to "Deconstruct Washington" was explained to the American Conservative Union annual conference. On stage with Bannon was White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus. The orchestrators of the fine tuned machine, explained how the best buddy duo worked together. They couldn't stop touching! How touching! Priebus keeps the trains running on time, according to Bannon, Bannon does the big ideas, according to Priebus. No one decides where the trains run apparently. The CNN described the show as a "buddy schtick" of sorts. Ying and Yang in the White House, without the Feng Shui perhaps. A new political order is being formed said Bannon. National Security, Economic Nationalism and Deconstruction of the Administrative State are the three buckets of policy. Big Buckets with fries. Illegal immigrants, currency manipulators and LBGTs will feel the heat. The media was denounced as the opposition party. No longer the enemy of the people? Bannon expects relationships with the press to deteriorate in the years ahead. Can it really get any worse? President Trump has a maniacally focused obsession with the campaign policy agenda, explained the white House chief strategist. So now we know, the White House is full of maniacs, ensuring the trains run on time, with an obsession for economic nationalism! We have been through this West Wing episode before, with Italian subtitles. It didn't end well. We can only hope that more grown ups arrive in the White House soon. Another grown up did arrive this week. Truth to Power received a boost with news that General H.R McMaster had been appointed to replace Mike Flynn as National Security Adviser. War veteran and author of "Dereliction of Duty" McMaster had written the critique of the Vietnam war in which the failures of the generals to speak openly and honestly to government led to the extension of the disastrous war in South East Asia. Promising! Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson and Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly were in Mexico City this week, meeting with government officials including President Enrique Peña Nieto. Border security and deportation were on the agenda. Who pays for the wall, was not discussed. It will be a tough trip, advised the President. It was. Sean Spicer described relationships with Mexico as phenomenal. The Southern response was much less effusive. The trip to Europe had been much more fun. The Russians will be held to account. We all love NATO, The Germans had agreed to recruit 20,000 more soldiers. Result! Who said international diplomacy was difficult. The Trump administration had started the week with the usual chaos. Mike Flynn was asked to resign by the President for doing what the President would have asked had he only known what Flynn was doing in the first place. Yes, a peace deal with that nice autocrat Putin. The real crime was lying to Vice President Pence, keeping him out of the loop apparently. The whole world was out of the loop as Trump continued to devastate international tourism with the shock news that something happened in Sweden "last night". Well he had seen something on TV. Fox and Friends had reported on immigration, an increase in crime and the break up of Abba. Sad. KellyAnne Conway, counselor to the President was taken off air following a ban from MNSBC, problems with the Bowling Green Massacre and confusion over the Flynn resignation to blame. Known as the "Rolling Mascara Massacre", an early morning Conway had assured the media, Flynn had the "full support of the President". Hours later Flynn was fired. KellyAnne had authored the term "Alternative Facts" relating to Shaun Spicer's statements about the size of the inauguration crowd and developed the euphemism "facts no longer sustainable" about the stream of "misstatements" emanating from the administration. [The Washington Post has logged 134 false or misleading White House claims in the first 34 days of the new administration.] The Counselor was subject to a complaint about professional misconduct (lying) by a group of law professors from around the U.S.A. A "truth to media" complaint about a White House spokesperson. What would CJ have made of it all. By the end of the week, Conway was back on air, Trump was on message, denouncing anti semetic incidents as "horrible". He was also tweeting about Black people, "Very much enjoyed my tour of The Smithsonians National Museum of African American History and Culture a great job done by amazing People." Excellent. Double entendre abounds . We can't be sure if this was a reference to Museum Staff, African Americans or the slave traders who brought them to the USA in the first place. Trump does live (part time) in the Southern White House after all. Back in Washington by the end of the week, it was all too much. Trump denounced the lying Fake News Media, railed against the leaking FBI. CNN, New York Times and others were excluded from a White House briefing to end the week .... Bannon had advised relationships were going to get worse ... they did ... this cannot end well! That's all for this week from the West Wing Whisky Tango Foxtrot ... So what happened to Markets? Markets, were mixed, the Dow closed at 20,775 from 20,555. The FTSE closed at 7,243 from 7,299. Sterling was up against the Dollar to $1.249 from $1.242 and was up against the Euro to €1.179 from €1.169. The Euro moved down against the Dollar at 1.059 from 1.062. Oil Price Brent Crude closed at $56.21 from $55.52 The average price in February last year was $32.18. UK Gilts - yields moved down. UK Ten year gilt yields closed at 1.09 from 1.21. US Treasury yields slipped to 2.34 from 2.41. Gold closed at $1,256 from $1,237. John That's all for this week. Don't miss the pro-manchester Business Conference in March. We focus on Digital Disruption and the Smart City Challenge. Sponsors Samsung will be demonstrating the latest in virtual rally, plus we have the latest on robotics, AI and autonomous vehicles. © 2017 John Ashcroft, Economics, Strategy and Social Media, experience worth sharing. ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The material is based upon information which we consider to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or omissions of opinion or fact. In particular, no reliance should be placed on the comments on trends in financial markets. The receipt of this email should not be construed as the giving of advice relating to finance or investment.. ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ If you do not wish to receive any further Saturday Economist updates, please unsubscribe using the buttons below or drop me an email at [email protected]. If you enjoy the content, why not forward to a friend, they can sign up here ... _______________________________________________________________________________________ For details of our Privacy Policy and our Terms and Conditions check out our main web site. John Ashcroft and Company.com _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Copyright © 2017 The Saturday Economist, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email as a member of the Saturday Economist Mailing List. You may have joined the list from Linkedin, Facebook Google+ or one of the related web sites. Our mailing address is: The Saturday Economist, Tower 12, Spinningfields, Manchester, M3 3BZ, United Kingdom
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![]() Inflation CPI basis increased to 1.8% in January. The main contributors to the increase were motor fuels and food. Clothing and footwear costs fell, reducing the overall inflation impact in the start to the year. Transport, Education and the Leisure sector continue to push prices higher. The figure was slightly lower than analysts expected. They won't have long to wait. Service sector inflation increased by 2.6% from 2.5% in December. Goods inflation, increased by 1.1% up from 0.7%. Last year the comparison figure was negative minus 1%. Such is the swing in just twelve months. Price inflation is exacerbated by the depreciation of Sterling and the effect of rising commodity prices, especially oil. Oil price Brent Crude basis closed at $55.52 last week. The average price in January last year was $32.18. Inflation is set to spike over the next few months. Manufacturing prices are on the rise. Output prices in the manufacturing sector increased by 3.5% in January. Input costs by over 20%. The inflationary impact of oil price rises adjusted for currency is set to double the cost denominated in sterling. We expect producer input costs to increase by over 30%, output costs to rise by over 5%. The inflation spike will push retail prices to over 3%, well above the MPC target. CPIH, including a measure of housing costs will become the favoured measure of reporting from next month. CPIH increased by 2% in January. In the U.S. Janet Yellen has affirmed U.S. rates may rise again in March. In the U.K. interest rates at just 0.25% are incompatible with inflation on the rise and widening U.S. spreads. The latest employment data confirms a further fall in unemployment and an unemployment rate of 4.8%. Remember forward guidance? When an unemployment rate of 7% was the perceived trigger level for a rate rise ... Economic news this week .. Full Employment ? The latest employment data released by the ONS, confirm the strong growth in the jobs market is continuing. December unemployment fell to just under 1.6 million, a rate of 4.8%. The January claimant count fell to 750,000, a rate of 2.1%. The levels are lower than experienced prior to the downturn in 2008. Vacancies increased to 748,000 in January. The pre recession peak in February 2008 was 704,000. In January the number of vacancies was equal to the claimant count. So is there a skills mismatch? Service sector recruitment is most difficult, especially in wholesale, retail, distribution, accommodation, restaurants, food, the health sector and social care. We measure the vacancies against employment in the sector. In construction, the ratio is 1.3%. In manufacturing, the ratio is 2.0%. In the service sector overall the ratio is 2.3%. In health and social care the ratio is almost 3.0%. In accommodation and food, the ratio is almost 4%. It is too easy to talk of a skills gap but many high vacancy sectors are relatively low skilled. The jobs market is near full employment. Filling vacancies is difficult. No time to be sending foreign workers home from within the E.U. or without ... So what of earnings? Despite low unemployment and a high vacancy rate, for the moment, earnings remain subdued. Earnings, in the three months to December, increased by 2.5%. In the construction sector, pay increased by 6.5%. A stark contrast to public sector wage increases of just 1.5%. Once inflation starts to rise, will earnings respond given a tight jobs market? Probably. Then perhaps the MPC will make a move ... West Wing ... Whisky Tango Foxtrot ... Best show in town is Saturday Night live "Life in the White House", bettered only by White House life itself. Last week, "Mad Dog" Mattis was out soothing nerves in Japan and South Korea. This week Mattis and Tillerson were deployed to Europe, assuaging fears about the U.S. commitment to NATO and Europe. Fair warnings were offered to the Russians about expansionist ambitions in the Crimea, Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltic States. The U.S. is committed to NATO as long as the subs are paid by all member states. "Pay up or the marines might not turn up", the message in the event of Russian invasion. American diplomacy at it's best. It was never overly nuanced. While the grown ups were out of the country, President Trump held a News Conference. The first as President of the U.S.A. The President made it clear he had inherited a "mess". Mess in the White House, mess in the U.S.A, mess in the world. A mess. A terrible, catastrophic, chaotic, disastrous, mess. Chicago, well parts of Chicago, were worse than danger zones in the Middle East. How the tourist board and inward investment teams would love that. www.choosechicago.com? Not at the moment thanks. The good news, the White House is running like a "fine tuned machine" said the President, I "inherited a mess but I am going to fix it, all of it". Excellent. Aware of the risk of nuclear war and basic elements, the President explained "a nuclear holocaust would be like no other". Of uranium? "Uranium the stuff that makes nuclear weapons and you can do some bad things with". Reassuring. Is the President coping with the rôle? Trump explained he is having a great time. Loved by the people of America, hated by the press, the dishonest press with the false, horrible, fake reporting and fake news. CNN and the failing New York Times were singled out for treatment, along with NBC, ABC, CBS. Even the BBC took a bashing at the news conference. The President was thrown by a question about the CBC, obviously a news station he hadn't heard of. CBC stands for The Congressional Black Caucus, explained April Ryan of American Urban Radio Networks. "Do you know them" asked the President "Are they friends of yours" It's a fair question, April Ryan is a black American after all. "Do you want to set up a meeting?" asked the most powerful man in the Western World running a fine tuned White House machine. Diary management not a strong point perhaps. The White House is leaking like a BP oil well in the gulf of Mexico. "The leaks are real the news is false", the President explained, in inexplicable conundrum. "The tone is hatred, anti Trump hatred". "The fake news media is not my enemy, it is the enemy of the American People" said the President. Tomorrow you will all say "I was ranting and raving ..." yep nothing fake about that .. the baffled press duly obliged ... White House - Whisky, Tango, Foxtrot ... for this week... So what happened to Markets? Markets, were up the Dow closed at 20,555 from 20,262. The FTSE closed at 7,299 from 7,258. Sterling slipped against the Dollar to $1.242 from $1.250 and was down against the Euro to €1.169 from €1.174. The Euro moved down against the Dollar at 1.062 from 1.065. Oil Price Brent Crude closed at $55.52 from $56.76 The average price in January last year was $32.18. UK Gilts - yields moved down. UK Ten year gilt yields closed at 1.21 from 1.27. US Treasury yields slipped to 2.41 from 2.42. Gold closed at $1,237 from $1,233 John That's all for this week. Don't miss the pro-manchester Business Conference in March. We focus on Digital Disruption and the Smart City Challenge. Sponsors Samsung will be demonstrating the latest in virtual rally, plus we have the latest on robotics, AI and autonomous vehicles. © 2017 John Ashcroft, Economics, Strategy and Social Media, experience worth sharing. ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The material is based upon information which we consider to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or omissions of opinion or fact. In particular, no reliance should be placed on the comments on trends in financial markets. The receipt of this email should not be construed as the giving of advice relating to finance or investment.. ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ If you do not wish to receive any further Saturday Economist updates, please unsubscribe using the buttons below or drop me an email at [email protected]. If you enjoy the content, why not forward to a friend, they can sign up here ... _______________________________________________________________________________________ For details of our Privacy Policy and our Terms and Conditions check out our main web site. John Ashcroft and Company.com _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Copyright © 2017 The Saturday Economist, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email as a member of the Saturday Economist Mailing List. You may have joined the list from Linkedin, Facebook Google+ or one of the related web sites. Our mailing address is: The Saturday Economist, Tower 12, Spinningfields, Manchester, Eng M3 3BZ, United Kingdom. ![]() The Bank of England set the pace, forecasting growth in 2017. In the February Inflation Report, the growth forecast for 2017 was upgraded to 2.0%. Earlier in the month, we boosted our expectations of growth this year to 2.0% with an upside of 2.4%. Expect a whole range of updates from the HMT (Treasury) panel in the week ahead. In the "Forecasts for the UK economy" January edition, the average forecast for the year was just 1.3%. Just three panelists, Liverpool Macro, Beacon and Deutsche Bank had predictions of growth over 2%. Their estimates ranged from 2.4% to 2.6%. To be fair, the publication date of the January edition was ahead of the ONS preliminary estimate of GDP growth in Q4 2016. Strong growth recorded in Q4 will form the basis of growth in 2017. The next HMT Forecast update is due next week. The forecasts will reflect the latest ONS data. The average projection in 2017 will be in line with the Bank estimate, with an upside potential of 2.4%. This is in line with our own estimates for the year ahead, as explained to a full house at our quarterly economics presentation last week. So what of inflation? The February NIESR Economic Prospects arrived this morning. NIESR expect inflation to average 3.3% in 2017 with a growth forecast of just 1.7%. How high will inflation rise if growth is higher? We expect inflation to spike in the first quarter this year. The January CPI data, out next week, will push the headline rate over 2%. The Governor would have us believe the next rate move could be up or down. Really? As growth forecasts increase, markets will be conditioned to accept a series of rate rises in 2017. The Bank should move to normalize rates. Growth will be strong in 2017. The next rate move is up. It could be as early as April ... Economic news this week ... The ONS released the December data on trade, production and construction this week. The strong finish to the year was confirmed. The trade deficit narrowed to just £3.3 billion in the month, down from £3.6 billion in November. Manufacturing output increased along with construction growth! Is the economy rebalancing at long last? Manufacturing output increased by 1.2% in December 2016, compared to December last year. For the year as a whole, manufacturing output was up by just 0.6%. We expect growth of just 1% in 2017. Construction output was up by 1.8% compared to November. For the year as whole, construction was up by 1.5%. Strong growth in private sector housing and commercial real estate was offset by weakness in public sector spending on housing and infrastructure. So what of 2017. The construction data is remarkably volatile. The pattern of spending will continue into 2017. Private sector strength will continue in the year ahead. Government spending will be limited. We expect little or no growth in construction in the year ahead. Is the economy rebalancing? The trade deficit in the final quarter of the year was £8.6 billion compared to £5.9 billion in Q4 2015. For the year as a whole, the deficit, trade in goods, was £134.9 billion compared to £120 billion prior year. That's almost 7.5% of GDP. So much for rebalancing and depreciation of Sterling! There is little or no trade in goods benefit from the depreciation of Sterling as we have long explained. West Wing ... Whisky Tango Foxtrot ... For lovers of the "West Wing", there can be no better drama than events unfolding in The White House, as we explained last week. This week the President had a difficult call with Francois Hollande President of France. The call to Angela Merkel, currency manipulator, with a big trade surplus with the U.S. didn't go down to well either. It was a week of setback and readjustment for President Trump. Nordstrom dropped Ivanka's fashion line. The outraged President Twittered his disdain. Worst still the Muslim ban (it's not a ban) ran into trouble. A federal appeals court upheld a ruling suspending President Trump's controversial immigration order. The executive order would have barred refugees and citizens from seven Muslim countries, (without a Trump hotel), from entering the U.S. "SEE YOU IN COURT" tweeted the President. Reminiscent of the early morning wake up call for Pandora Maxwell. "I am about to call the police" said Mrs Maxwell, as detectives called to arrest her husband. Madam "we are the police" the reply. So in the White House, See you in Court, tweeted Trump. Mr President "We are the courts" the obvious reply ... and we voted 3.0 as Hillary Clinton explained via Twitter of course. "Mad Dog" Mattis was out soothing nerves in Japan and South Korea last week. The adults are arriving in the West Wing in force. Steve Bannon is under lock and key. The President is playing golf in Mar-a-Lago this weekend with Shinzō Abe, the Prime Minister of Japan. He even gets to fly on Air Force One. The charm offensive begins. The President is coming to terms with the reality of office and the "Realtik" of international relations. Trump made the telephone call to China this week. Confirming to President Xi Jinping his commitment to the "One China" policy. Never really in doubt! Taiwan a crossed line! China had indicated a slow down in U.S. bond purchases this month. Ah yes, running the U.S and the world may be a little more difficult than expected. West Wing Whisky Tango Foxtrot signing off for this week ... So what happened to Markets? Markets, were up the Dow closed at 20,262 from 20,057. The FTSE closed at 7,258 from 7,188. Sterling was steady against the Dollar at $1.250 from $1.252 and down against the Euro to €1.174 from €1.161. The Euro moved down against the Dollar at 1.065 from 1.078. Oil Price Brent Crude closed at $56.76 from $56.78 The average price in January last year was $32.18. UK Gilts - yields moved down. UK Ten year gilt yields closed at 1.27 from 1.36. US Treasury yields slipped to 2.42 from 2.44. Gold closed at $1,233 from $1,218 John That's all for this week. Don't miss the pro-manchester Business Conference in March. We focus on Digital Disruption and the Smart City Challenge. Sponsors Samsung will be demonstrating the latest in virtual rally, plus we have the latest on robotics, AI and autonomous vehicles. © 2017 John Ashcroft, Economics, Strategy and Social Media, experience worth sharing. ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The material is based upon information which we consider to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or omissions of opinion or fact. In particular, no reliance should be placed on the comments on trends in financial markets. The receipt of this email should not be construed as the giving of advice relating to finance or investment.. ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ If you do not wish to receive any further Saturday Economist updates, please unsubscribe using the buttons below or drop me an email at [email protected]. If you enjoy the content, why not forward to a friend, they can sign up here ... _______________________________________________________________________________________ For details of our Privacy Policy and our Terms and Conditions check out our main web site. John Ashcroft and Company.com _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Copyright © 2017 The Saturday Economist, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email as a member of the Saturday Economist Mailing List. You may have joined the list from Linkedin, Facebook Google+ or one of the related web sites. Our mailing address is: The Saturday Economist, Tower 12, Spinningfields,Manchester, Eng M3 3BZ, United Kingdom ![]() This week - The Inflation Report. The Bank has upgraded the growth forecast for 2017 to 2.0%. Inflation is expected to peak at just below 3.0% in the first quarter of 2018. There will be little increase in the unemployment rate in the current year, despite earlier fears. Higher growth and a rise in inflation, yet interest rates were kept on hold. The Bank considers, the rise in inflation is caused by the fall in Sterling. The fall in Sterling a casualty of the Brexit vote. Circumstances beyond "our" control, the Bank will see through the spike in inflation. Inflation is expected to settle at 2.4% within a three year period. The Governor continues to signal the next rate move could be up or down! Really? The meandering "NAIRU" has taken another dip. The unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation rate is now considered to be 4.25% from 5% earlier. Some may remember "forward guidance" suggesting 7% - the hurdle rate for an increase in base rates. It would appear we will have to wait longer for indications of a rate rise, despite evidence of full employment and increasing earnings. Last week we boosted our expectations of growth this year to 2.0% with an upside of 2.4%. We expect inflation to spike in the first quarter this year. Sterling is down by 13% compared to prior year, oil prices are up by 76% compared to February last year. Brent Crude sterling prices have more than doubled. The inflationary pressure is reflected in manufacturing input prices, transmitted to output prices and inflation CPI in short order. There will not be long to wait. This week NPower announced a 10% increase in prices. Cobb lettuce disappeared from the shelves. Inflation will spike in the first quarter, just in time for the earnings round. Inflation will spike, earnings will rise, the Bank will be forced to act, increasing rates in April ... Economic news this week ... PMI Markit Data ... Ben Broadbent, Deputy Governor for monetary policy, explained during the press conference, the Bank places great weight on survey data in preparing the short term forecasts. The Bank of England Quarterly model takes a back seat, as survey data prevails. Hence the forecast changes of growth in 2017 from 0.8% in August, 1.4% in November and 2.0% in February 2017. Not a great forecasting performance. The January updates of the influential PMI Markit series were released this week. "Manufacturing makes strong start, despite the record increase in costs" the headline. We highlight costs pressures in the chart. Input costs are rising dramatically. Our own model suggests input costs for manufacturing will increase by over 30% this quarter. The transmission mechanism into retail CPI is in terms of months not years. In other sectors, construction appeared to lose momentum in the month, yet still in growth territory. Construction growth eased slightly. The data is consistent with strong growth for the quarter and for the year ahead. West Wing ... Whisky Tango Foxtrot ... For lovers of the "West Wing", there can be no better drama than events unfolding in The White House. CJ in the press room has been replaced by Sean Spicer, the gum loving press secretary. Did you know, he chews and swallows 35 pieces of gum a day! This is as nothing to the b.s the press is forced to swallow during press briefings. Sean Spicer denied the President had watched "Finding Dory" whilst ignoring the turmoil of the hastily drafted ban on muslims coming into the U.S. "Not a ban" said Spicer "it's extreme vetting". Reminiscent of the railing against the press during the Vietnam war ... "You keep talking about bombing, bombing, bombing" bemoaned the generals ... "It's not bombing it's air support". Big difference. All in the perception, the President had the largest crowd in the whole wide world, watching the inauguration ceremony last month. A fact explained to Malcolm Turnbull, the Prime Minister of Australia before a cranky president broke off the call. "It had been a long day" according to a White House statement by way of explanation. Up early, the day for the President begins with "Fox and Friends". Policy inspiration and security updates in modern media format. Who needs the CIA and FBI. The President is running out of allies. Attacks on Mexico, Canada, Australia and Europe in just two weeks. If you have a trade surplus with the U.S.A., your must be a currency manipulator. It is the only possible explanation. The list includes, China, Japan, South Korea and the E.U especially the Germans. You are all on notice, along with Iran and Ireland ... "The world is a mess" explained the President this week. "But don't worry, I can fix it". Yep, "nothing to fear but fear itself" as FDR explained. "Lots of it and with good reason" DJT expands. West Wing Whisky Tango Foxtrot signing off for this week ... So what happened to Markets? Markets, were steady the Dow closed at 20,057 from 20,090. The FTSE closed at 7,188 from 7,184. Sterling was steady against the Dollar at $1.252 from $1.253 and down against the Euro to €1.161 from €1.171. The Euro moved up against the Dollar at 1.078 from 1.069. Oil Price Brent Crude closed at $56.78 from $55.07 The average price in January last year was $32.18. UK Gilts - yields moved down. UK Ten year gilt yields closed at 1.36 from 1.483. US Treasury yields fell to 2.44 from 2.50. Gold closed at $1,218 from $1,189. John That's all for this week. Don't miss the pro-manchester Business Conference in March. We focus on Digital Disruption and the Smart City Challenge. Our next economics presentation is next week - the 8th February in Manchester. © 2017 John Ashcroft, Economics, Strategy and Social Media, experience worth sharing. ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The material is based upon information which we consider to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or omissions of opinion or fact. In particular, no reliance should be placed on the comments on trends in financial markets. The receipt of this email should not be construed as the giving of advice relating to finance or investment.. ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ If you do not wish to receive any further Saturday Economist updates, please unsubscribe using the buttons below or drop me an email at [email protected]. If you enjoy the content, why not forward to a friend, they can sign up here ... _______________________________________________________________________________________ For details of our Privacy Policy and our Terms and Conditions check out our main web site. John Ashcroft and Company.com _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Copyright © 2017 The Saturday Economist, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email as a member of the Saturday Economist Mailing List. You may have joined the list from Linkedin, Facebook Google+ or one of the related web sites. Our mailing address is: The Saturday Economist, Tower 12, Spinningfields,Manchester, Eng M3 3BZ, United Kingdom |
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