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  The Saturday Economist
The Saturday Economist Monday Morning Markets
Monday Morning Markets ...
Market Outlook
This is our Monday Morning Markets Update. Every week we update our analysis of equities, bond yields, exchange rates, commodity prices and crypto. Prices marked Saturday 4th July  2026.  Oil prices up 5% this week. Equities slipping in Europe, steady in  Asia and the USA.  Gold down 1.6%,  Bitcoin up 2.7%.

It is said the "markets takes the stairs up, but take the elevator down." Yeah and sometimes they just jump out the window. Bitcoin is a case in point.  Bitcoin marked at $60,000, in June, a 52%  fall from the 125k high in October 2025. Neither a store of value nor a medium of exchange. It will remain a traders favorite offering high volatility and the prospect of significant short term gains (or losses).  

We mark Gold at  $4,109 Saturday down 1.6%. 
 Gold the safe haven beneficiary from the uncertainty of war, covered by the uncertainty of over extension. Charts always tell a great story. Gold prices over extended still but central banks offering some support with strong buying into May.


Top line ...
A record number of fund managers see stocks as overvalued. They would receive some support this week! In our forward outlook, we model an 22% draw down in the US, an 16% adjustment in Europe and a 22% realignment in our  three primary Asian markets. The CAPE fear index hits 42.2 (41.6), close to the 2000 high of 43.2.

Sarah Breedon  Bank Deputy Governor thinks markets are set for a fall. Berkshire Hathaway sits on a near $400 billion dollar cash pile and buys back stock. Warren Buffet thinks markets have  turned into a casino. It's all about speculation rather than  investment. 


"Cash no longer Trash, (Jamie Dimon), Bonds are Garbage ( Bill Gross), Equities Are Overvalued (Everyman), Bitcoin is worthless (Jamie Dimon), Most NFTs are junk (John Hargrave)". "Crypto is a ‘hot ball of money’ with very little intrinsic value", says hedge fund Starkiller Capital.

When it comes to understanding market moves, "Any explanation is better than none" (Nietzsche). Be careful out there ... and remember ... "To understand the markets, you have to understand the economics" ...  and we do!


Disclaimer: This "Monday Morning Markets" analysis is for information purposes only and does not constitute 'investment advice' as defined by the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Regulated Activities) Order 2001. We are not authorized or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). No part of this material should be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument."

We do not provide licensed financial  or investment advice. We do not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any individual. You should consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions."

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Monday Morning Markets ... Equities ...
We track ten markets in our global equities model. The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ in the U.S.A, the FTSE, CAC and Dax in Europe. In Asia, Nikkei, Hang Seng, Shanghai and BSE feature.

Markets vary across the board. Asian markets up 0.2%. European markets down 2.2%. US markets up 0.8%.


Our Empires of the Cloud fund was up 3.3% with a rise in Meta (14,5%). Our dynasties trio was up 9.0% with a strong performance Alibaba up 16.6%.

Bull market baseline: Strategists see the U.S. equity bull market extending through 2026, with mid‑ to high‑single‑digit annual gains and earnings growth in the mid‑teens. We are more circumspect. In our forward outlook, we model an 22% draw down in the US, an 16% adjustment in Europe and a 22% realignment in our  three primary Asian markets. The CAPE fear index hits 42.2 (41.6), close to the 2000 high of 43.2.

Strategists flag stretched valuations, mega-cap concentration, geopolitics and energy prices, policy uncertainty, and a stickier-Fed scenario as key downside threats into 2026.
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Monday Morning Markets ... Currencies
Sentiment steady this week. Dollar Index level at 100.66 from 100.52. Sterling  at $1.34 against the Dollar from $1.33 and at €1.17 against the Euro from €1.17. The Euro level against the Dollar at $1.14 from $1.14. 

Bigger role for the Euro?
"As the US dollar weakens amid geopolitical upheaval, Euro-area finance ministers are pushing to expand the role of the single currency. They met in Brussels February and on their agenda was promotion of the currency’s issuance and use in transactions.  Given the global context, it’s become “existential for us to safeguard the international role of the euro as it is quite pertinent for the EU’s monetary sovereignty,” said Greek Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis, who chaired the meeting."

BCA Analysis April 2026 

"The dollar is not losing its role, but it is losing its exclusivity, supporting a structural bid for reserve assets that replicate its functions."

The decline of the US dollar has been a major theme for several years and has accelerated since Liberation Day. But no single currency can replace the dollar. The more relevant question is thus which portfolio of assets can replicate the functions the dollar has long bundled together. In practice, a synthetic reserve basket is already being built by the world’s most sophisticated reserve managers. 
The attributes that make an asset suitable for reserves (liquidity, safety, inflation protection, commodity hedge, rule of law, transaction utility, and increasingly geopolitical alignment) are separable and available in different concentrations across assets and currencies. As in Swensen’s Endowment Model, what was once bundled in the dollar can now be unbundled and optimized. This does not require abandoning the dollar, but it does imply lower dollar concentration at the margin and a sustained bid for assets that deliver the factors the dollar no longer monopolizes. 

Bigger Role for the Chinese yuan (renminbi) The suggestion that the Chinese yuan (renminbi) is positioned to achieve global reserve status came directly from Chinese President Xi Jinping in February 2026, though major U.S. banks like Goldman Sachs have simultaneously issued "high-conviction" reports predicting the currency's significant rise.

  • Primary Source: In early February 2026, President Xi Jinping published an article in Qiushi (the CCP’s flagship journal) explicitly calling for the renminbi to attain "global reserve currency status" as part of China's goal to become a "financial powerhouse."
  • U.S. Bank Involvement: While Xi set the political goal, Goldman Sachs released a major 2026 FX strategy report labeling the yuan as one of its "highest conviction" ideas, arguing it is undervalued by 25% and poised for a structural rise.
  • Economic Context: Morgan Stanley’s 2026 "Big Picture" report noted that the yuan has already entered the top three global trade finance currencies, with over 30% of China's trade now settled in RMB.

  • Implementation: The push is tied to China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), which prioritizes "current account liberalization" to boost global demand for the currency.

CONTEXT: The "five-year" timeline aligns with the 2026–2030 planning cycle. However, while Beijing and some Wall Street analysts are bullish, the yuan currently accounts for only ~2% of global reserves, compared to the U.S. dollar's ~58%. Analysts caution that achieving true reserve status requires China to further relax capital controls, a move Beijing has historically been reluctant to take fully.

China’s yuan may be going global faster than Western data suggests, analysts say.
Mainstream metrics may understate the role of China’s currency in global payments, as a growing share of transactions is now routed through Beijing’s own cross-border payment system and not fully reflected in conventional data sets, analysts say. This could help explain the gap between Beijing’s official narrative – which describes the yuan as the world’s third-largest payment currency – and readings from tracking systems such as the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (Swift).

Current  UK Yield Curve
Monday Morning Markets ... UK Yield Curve ...
UK ten year gilts were at 4.87 from 4.79. Twenty year gilts trade at 5.52  from 5.45. Thirty year gilts trade  at  5.60 from 5.53. The potential run down (capital gain to a five year maturity) is 27%  for thirties, 25%  for twenties, 20% for fifteens and 11% for tens. Long bonds remain over sold. Fill your  boots, lock up the yield and lock up the capital gain to come ... 
Monday Morning Markets Bond Yields
Monday Morning Markets ... Bond Yields ...
US Ten year yields were at 4.56 from 4.48. UK ten year gilts were at 4.87 from 4.79. Japanese yields up at 2.72 from 2.77. UK  ten  years remain oversold, still marking a great yield lock  in  with  capital gain to  follow. 

In the UK, prior to the Great Financial Crash [2000 - 2008] the average inflation rate was 2.0%, the average UK bank rate was 4.50%. Ten year gilt yields averaged 4.50%.  Thirty year gilts averaged 4.60%. The average GDP growth rate was 2.5%. The average unemployment rate was 5.0%. Earnings averaged 3.9%. 

Then came life on Planet  ZIRP financial markets base  rates and bond rates were distorted. Back to reality with bonds and gilts slightly oversold for the moment
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Monday Morning Markets ... Oil Prices Brent Crude ...
Oil prices Brent Crude basis marked at $76.01 from $72.10 Saturday.  Brent Crude up 5%  as news of extended ceasefire and hopes for opening the Strait of Hormuz disappear. 

We expect  Brent Crude to average $75 - $80 dollars in the third quarter, steady at $80 dollars by the end  of the year assuming an easing of the constraint in the Strait  of Hormuz.


Oil Supplement : EIA Short  term outlook
July  Crude Oil Price Forecast :
Expectations of increasing oil supply and moderating inventory draws have caused oil prices to fall. The Brent crude oil spot price averaged $85 per barrel (b) in June, down $22/b from May and $32/b from its recent April 2026 peak. The Brent price in our forecast averages $74/b in 3Q26, a reduction of $27/b from last month’s outlook. We expect ongoing oil inventory accumulation over the next year will continue to put downward pressure on crude oil prices, with Brent falling to an average of $65/b in 2027.
Monday Morning Markets Bitcoin
Monday Morning Markets ... Bitcoin ...
We mark Bitcoin at $64,111 from $62,438. Bitcoin up 2.7% this week, finding support at $60,000 just. Bitcoin  is consolidating after steep monthly losses.   Bitcoin trades essentially flat on the week, with subdued volatility and price action consistent with post‑selloff consolidation

We said some weeks ago, the technical trend rate is emerging of head and shoulders with a $60,000 to 80,000 trading pattern. Continued risk-off sentiment in crypto markets could see a drop to $60,000, we said. The level may now offer support with a $60,000 to $70,000 short term range. Continue to expect  a hold  at $60,000 with $40,000 the next support level. Should be some action  around  the $60,000 level first.

Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone warns Bitcoin could crash to $10,000, calling the rally a “collapsing bubble”. [Feb 17th].  $40k, $30k and $20k are the  steps to break through first.
The Saturday Economist Gold Price Monthly
Monday Morning Markets ... Gold $...
We mark Gold at $4,109  from $4,176 last week down 1.6% in the week. Failing to recover the $5,000 dollar level. Gold was  trading at  $5,500 following Epic Fury strikes on Iran. Spot gold dropped further, as profit‑taking combines with pressure from hawkish  Fed statements and a firmer U.S. dollar narrative. 

Gold hovers near $4,120, with a projected $3,640–$4,580 weekly band, responding to U.S. data and Fed minutes rather than forming a clear trend.

Prior to the  strikes, "The outlook for gold prices in 2026 was predominantly bullish, with most analysts and financial institutions holding significant increases. Goldman's calling $5,400. J.P. Morgan predicts prices will reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, while Deutsche Bank is standing by a $6,000 year-end target, per their recent notes.

Here's what  the World Gold Council has to say: "An environment characterized by elevated geopolitical tensions, shifting market correlations, and persistent currency risks underscores the importance of building resilient portfolios. Gold’s performance across market cycles, its diversification attributes and its ability to provide protection during periods of financial stress reinforce its strategic, long-term relevance within portfolios." © 2026 World Gold Council.

The over extension against trend evident from our chart. $4,000 the next  call. A pull back to $2,500 would not be a huge shock. Central bank buying offers support with strong  buying continuing into May with Poland and China leading the charge.

Warren Buffett’s case against the metal argues gold’s intrinsic value is no more than the cost of producing it, which in 2024 was somewhere around $1,500 an ounce across the bulk of the major miners. The all-in sustained cost (AISC) of production can therefore be seen as a potential floor for gold.

Saturday Economist Technical View June 28, 2026
Gold slips below $4,000 – bears in control, for now
1. Price Action 
Spot gold XAU/USD broke $4,000 this week, trading as low as $3,964.65 before closing near $3,996. The move extends a -4.9% weekly decline, the sharpest since March.
2. Key Technicals 
•  Trend: Firmly bearish. Price sits below all major MAs: 21-day - $4,444, 200-day -  $4,446, 50-day -$4,593.
•  Momentum: Daily RSI ∼24-30, oversold but no reversal signal yet. Bear Cross confirmed as 21-day cut below 200-day.
•  Support: $4,000 psychological level breached intraday. Next downside zones: $3,920 (38.2% Fib + 50-period MA), $3,900 (50-period SMA), then $3,605.
•  Resistance: Reclaiming $4,000 is step one. The real test is the $4,440-$4,450 cluster where the 200-day and 21-day SMAs converge.
3. Macro Drivers 
Hawkish Fed repricing, 10-yr yields >4.57%, and easing Middle East tensions are draining gold’s safe-haven bid. Higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
4. Outlook 
Bearish bias below $4,000. Rallies toward $4,200-$4,450 are likely selling opportunities unless gold can close back above the 200-day SMA. A daily close below $4,000 opens the door to $3,900 and $3,605. 

Longer-term forecasts from major banks still point to $5,400-$6,300 by end-2026, but the near-term chart favors the bears.
The line in the sand: $4,000. Hold it, and bulls get a breather. Lose it on a weekly close, and the path to $3,600 clears up.



Th  Saturday Economist : Technical  View
That's all for this week ... "to understand the markets you have to understand the economics" and we do ...

© 2026 John  Ashcroft, Economics, Strategy and Financial Markets, now with World View and AI, even more experience worth sharing.

The material is based upon information which we consider to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or omissions of opinion or fact. In particular, no reliance should be placed on the comments on trends in financial markets. The receipt of this communication should not be construed as the giving of advice relating to finance or investment.

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