Monday Morning Markets ...
Market Outlook
This is our Monday Morning Markets Update. Every week we update our analysis of equities, bond yields, exchange rates, commodity prices and crypto. Prices marked Saturday 1th April 2026. Oil prices down 12.7% this week. Equities are rallying in U.S., Europe and Asia. Gold up 1.7%, Bitcoin up 8.8%. Markets were moved by the prospect of peace talks in Islamabad, as we mark the end of week close Saturday.
Peace hopes dashed as talks break down by Sunday close. Trump promises to blockade the Strait of Hormuz and threatens to invade the Vatican. Oil trades back of $100 dollars Brent crude basis. Gold and Bitcoin move sideways. Should be an interesting week for markets.
It is said the "markets takes the stairs up, but take the elevator down." Yeah and sometimes they just jump out the window. Bitcoin is a case in point. Bitcoin marked at $67,000, a dead cat bounce following the 50% fall from the 125k high in October 2025. Neither a store of value nor a medium of exchange. It will remain a traders favorite offering high volatility and the prospect of significant short term gains (or losses) but showed little reaction to the U.S. strikes on Iran.
We mark Gold at $4,751 Saturday. Gold the safe haven beneficiary from the uncertainty of war, covered by the uncertainty of over extension. Charts always tell a great story.
Top line ...
A record number of fund managers see stocks as overvalued. They would receive some support this week! In our forward outlook, we model an 14% draw down in the US, a 14% adjustment in Europe and a 20% realignment in our three primary Asian markets. Traders are beginning to think this could be the buy back in level.
"Cash no longer Trash, (Jamie Dimon), Bonds are Garbage ( Bill Gross), Equities Are Overvalued (Everyman), Bitcoin is worthless (Jamie Dimon), Most NFTs are junk (John Hargrave)". "Crypto is a ‘hot ball of money’ with very little intrinsic value", says hedge fund Starkiller Capital.
When it comes to understanding market moves, "Any explanation is better than none" (Nietzsche). Be careful out there ... and remember ... "To understand the markets, you have to understand the economics" ... and we do!
This is our Monday Morning Markets Update. Every week we update our analysis of equities, bond yields, exchange rates, commodity prices and crypto. Prices marked Saturday 1th April 2026. Oil prices down 12.7% this week. Equities are rallying in U.S., Europe and Asia. Gold up 1.7%, Bitcoin up 8.8%. Markets were moved by the prospect of peace talks in Islamabad, as we mark the end of week close Saturday.
Peace hopes dashed as talks break down by Sunday close. Trump promises to blockade the Strait of Hormuz and threatens to invade the Vatican. Oil trades back of $100 dollars Brent crude basis. Gold and Bitcoin move sideways. Should be an interesting week for markets.
It is said the "markets takes the stairs up, but take the elevator down." Yeah and sometimes they just jump out the window. Bitcoin is a case in point. Bitcoin marked at $67,000, a dead cat bounce following the 50% fall from the 125k high in October 2025. Neither a store of value nor a medium of exchange. It will remain a traders favorite offering high volatility and the prospect of significant short term gains (or losses) but showed little reaction to the U.S. strikes on Iran.
We mark Gold at $4,751 Saturday. Gold the safe haven beneficiary from the uncertainty of war, covered by the uncertainty of over extension. Charts always tell a great story.
Top line ...
A record number of fund managers see stocks as overvalued. They would receive some support this week! In our forward outlook, we model an 14% draw down in the US, a 14% adjustment in Europe and a 20% realignment in our three primary Asian markets. Traders are beginning to think this could be the buy back in level.
"Cash no longer Trash, (Jamie Dimon), Bonds are Garbage ( Bill Gross), Equities Are Overvalued (Everyman), Bitcoin is worthless (Jamie Dimon), Most NFTs are junk (John Hargrave)". "Crypto is a ‘hot ball of money’ with very little intrinsic value", says hedge fund Starkiller Capital.
When it comes to understanding market moves, "Any explanation is better than none" (Nietzsche). Be careful out there ... and remember ... "To understand the markets, you have to understand the economics" ... and we do!
Disclaimer: This "Monday Morning Markets" analysis is for information purposes only and does not constitute 'investment advice' as defined by the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Regulated Activities) Order 2001. We are not authorized or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). No part of this material should be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument."
We do not provide licensed financial or investment advice. We do not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any individual. You should consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions."
We do not provide licensed financial or investment advice. We do not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any individual. You should consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions."
Monday Morning Markets ... Equities ...
We track ten markets in our global equities model. The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ in the U.S.A, the FTSE, CAC and Dax in Europe. In Asia, Nikkei, Hang Seng, Shanghai and BSE feature.
Large scale rally in U.S. European markets and Asian this week on hopes for peace talks in Islamabad. U.S. markets up 3.8% led by a 4.7% Nasdaq rally. European markets up 2.7% led by a near 4% rise in France.
Asian stocks were up 4.3% with a strong 7.2% rise in the Nikkei.
Our Empires of the Cloud fund was up 6.4% with a big recovery in Amazon, Meta and Google, Apple the laggard up just 2.0%, Microsoft trailing with a near 1% drop. Our dynasties trio, (Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent) was up just 1.7% with a strong performance from Alibaba and Tencent.
In our forward outlook, we model an 14% draw down in the US, a 14% adjustment in Europe and a 20% realignment in our three primary Asian markets. Traders are beginning to think this could be the buy back in level, hence the bounce last week. May looms against a volatile geopolitical back drop.
We track ten markets in our global equities model. The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ in the U.S.A, the FTSE, CAC and Dax in Europe. In Asia, Nikkei, Hang Seng, Shanghai and BSE feature.
Large scale rally in U.S. European markets and Asian this week on hopes for peace talks in Islamabad. U.S. markets up 3.8% led by a 4.7% Nasdaq rally. European markets up 2.7% led by a near 4% rise in France.
Asian stocks were up 4.3% with a strong 7.2% rise in the Nikkei.
Our Empires of the Cloud fund was up 6.4% with a big recovery in Amazon, Meta and Google, Apple the laggard up just 2.0%, Microsoft trailing with a near 1% drop. Our dynasties trio, (Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent) was up just 1.7% with a strong performance from Alibaba and Tencent.
In our forward outlook, we model an 14% draw down in the US, a 14% adjustment in Europe and a 20% realignment in our three primary Asian markets. Traders are beginning to think this could be the buy back in level, hence the bounce last week. May looms against a volatile geopolitical back drop.
Monday Morning Markets ... Currencies
Dollar slightly softer again this week, Sterling the beneficiary. Dollar Index down -1.4% at 98.37 from 99.78. Sterling at $1.35 against the Dollar from $1.32 and at €1.17 against the Euro from €1.15. The Euro steady against the Dollar at $1.15 from $1.15.
Bigger role for the Euro?
"As the US dollar weakens amid geopolitical upheaval, Euro-area finance ministers are pushing to expand the role of the single currency. They met in Brussels February and on their agenda was promotion of the currency’s issuance and use in transactions. Given the global context, it’s become “existential for us to safeguard the international role of the euro as it is quite pertinent for the EU’s monetary sovereignty,” said Greek Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis, who chaired the meeting."
Bigger Role for the Chinese yuan (renminbi) The suggestion that the Chinese yuan (renminbi) is positioned to achieve global reserve status came directly from Chinese President Xi Jinping in February 2026, though major U.S. banks like Goldman Sachs have simultaneously issued "high-conviction" reports predicting the currency's significant rise.
CONTEXT: The "five-year" timeline aligns with the 2026–2030 planning cycle. However, while Beijing and some Wall Street analysts are bullish, the yuan currently accounts for only ~2% of global reserves, compared to the U.S. dollar's ~58%. Analysts caution that achieving true reserve status requires China to further relax capital controls, a move Beijing has historically been reluctant to take fully.
China’s yuan may be going global faster than Western data suggests, analysts say.
Mainstream metrics may understate the role of China’s currency in global payments, as a growing share of transactions is now routed through Beijing’s own cross-border payment system and not fully reflected in conventional data sets, analysts say. This could help explain the gap between Beijing’s official narrative – which describes the yuan as the world’s third-largest payment currency – and readings from tracking systems such as the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (Swift).
Dollar slightly softer again this week, Sterling the beneficiary. Dollar Index down -1.4% at 98.37 from 99.78. Sterling at $1.35 against the Dollar from $1.32 and at €1.17 against the Euro from €1.15. The Euro steady against the Dollar at $1.15 from $1.15.
Bigger role for the Euro?
"As the US dollar weakens amid geopolitical upheaval, Euro-area finance ministers are pushing to expand the role of the single currency. They met in Brussels February and on their agenda was promotion of the currency’s issuance and use in transactions. Given the global context, it’s become “existential for us to safeguard the international role of the euro as it is quite pertinent for the EU’s monetary sovereignty,” said Greek Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis, who chaired the meeting."
Bigger Role for the Chinese yuan (renminbi) The suggestion that the Chinese yuan (renminbi) is positioned to achieve global reserve status came directly from Chinese President Xi Jinping in February 2026, though major U.S. banks like Goldman Sachs have simultaneously issued "high-conviction" reports predicting the currency's significant rise.
- Primary Source: In early February 2026, President Xi Jinping published an article in Qiushi (the CCP’s flagship journal) explicitly calling for the renminbi to attain "global reserve currency status" as part of China's goal to become a "financial powerhouse."
- U.S. Bank Involvement: While Xi set the political goal, Goldman Sachs released a major 2026 FX strategy report labeling the yuan as one of its "highest conviction" ideas, arguing it is undervalued by 25% and poised for a structural rise.
- Economic Context: Morgan Stanley’s 2026 "Big Picture" report noted that the yuan has already entered the top three global trade finance currencies, with over 30% of China's trade now settled in RMB.
- Implementation: The push is tied to China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), which prioritizes "current account liberalization" to boost global demand for the currency.
CONTEXT: The "five-year" timeline aligns with the 2026–2030 planning cycle. However, while Beijing and some Wall Street analysts are bullish, the yuan currently accounts for only ~2% of global reserves, compared to the U.S. dollar's ~58%. Analysts caution that achieving true reserve status requires China to further relax capital controls, a move Beijing has historically been reluctant to take fully.
China’s yuan may be going global faster than Western data suggests, analysts say.
Mainstream metrics may understate the role of China’s currency in global payments, as a growing share of transactions is now routed through Beijing’s own cross-border payment system and not fully reflected in conventional data sets, analysts say. This could help explain the gap between Beijing’s official narrative – which describes the yuan as the world’s third-largest payment currency – and readings from tracking systems such as the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (Swift).
Monday Morning Markets ... Bond Yields ...
US Ten year yields were at 4.32 from 4.34. UK ten year gilts were at 4.83 from 4.83, unchanged. Japanese yields up at 2.42 from 2.37. UK ten years remain oversold, still marking a great yield lock in with capital gain to follow.
In the UK, prior to the Great Financial Crash [2000 - 2008] the average inflation rate was 2.0%, the average UK bank rate was 4.50%. Ten year gilt yields averaged 4.50%. Thirty year gilts averaged 4.60%. The average growth rate was 2.5%. The average unemployment rate was 5.0%. Earnings averaged 3.9%.
US Ten year yields were at 4.32 from 4.34. UK ten year gilts were at 4.83 from 4.83, unchanged. Japanese yields up at 2.42 from 2.37. UK ten years remain oversold, still marking a great yield lock in with capital gain to follow.
In the UK, prior to the Great Financial Crash [2000 - 2008] the average inflation rate was 2.0%, the average UK bank rate was 4.50%. Ten year gilt yields averaged 4.50%. Thirty year gilts averaged 4.60%. The average growth rate was 2.5%. The average unemployment rate was 5.0%. Earnings averaged 3.9%.
Monday Morning Markets ... Oil Prices Brent Crude ...
Oil prices Brent Crude basis closed at $95.20 from $109.03 as we marked prices on Saturday. Brent Crude down almost 13% reversing last week's gains, prices rallying Monday on news of peace talks setback and Trump's planned blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
We expect Brent Crude to average over $100 dollars in the second quarter before easing back below $70 dollars by the end of the year assuming an easing of the constraint in the Strait of Hormuz.
Prior to conflict, Brent crude was projected to trade between $65 and $75 a barrel in 2026. Check out the latest outlook from the EIA short term outlook ...
Oil Supplement : EIA Short term outlook
April Crude oil price forecast. The Brent crude oil spot price averaged $103 per barrel (b) in March, and we expect it to peak in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26) at $115/b before easing as production shut-ins slowly abate. We maintain a risk premium on crude oil prices throughout the forecast period as we expect uncertainty around future supply disruptions to keep prices above pre-conflict levels. We forecast the Brent crude oil price will fall below $90/b in 4Q26 and average $76/b in 2027. This price forecast is highly dependent on our assumptions of both the duration of conflict in the Middle East and resulting outages in oil production.
March Crude oil price forecast. We forecast the Brent crude oil price will remain above $95/b over the next two months, before falling below $80/b in the third quarter of 2026 and around $70/b by the end of the year. We expect prices to average $64/b in 2027. This price forecast is highly dependent on our modeled assumptions of both the duration of conflict in the Middle East and resulting outages in oil production.
February Update. Global oil prices. The Brent crude oil price averaged $67 per barrel (b) in January, the highest since September 2025, as weather-related events disrupted the global crude oil supply and escalating tensions with Iran put upward pressure on prices. Despite these short-term events, we expect oil prices will decline in 2026, as global oil production exceeds global oil demand, causing oil inventories to rise. Global inventories continue increasing into 2027. We forecast the Brent crude oil price will average $58 per barrel (b) in 2026 and $53/b in 2027.
Julius Baer Sort Term Scenarios Probabilities March
Swift and Intense Probability: 70%
Energy price spike within April, topping within or just above the witnessed highs, easing before summer. Supply disruptions begin to ease within April. Minor lasting economic damage, regionally pronounced in Asia, and a hawkish tilt by central banks.
Enduring and Chaotic Probability: 25% |
Energy prices spike beyond the witnessed highs, easing slowly later this year. Lasting economic impact globally, hawkish central banks, and more pronounced risk-off trade on financial markets.
Oil Crisis Probability: 5%
To trigger a recession and a reset on financial markets, oil prices would need to spike beyond $175 for several months.
Oil prices Brent Crude basis closed at $95.20 from $109.03 as we marked prices on Saturday. Brent Crude down almost 13% reversing last week's gains, prices rallying Monday on news of peace talks setback and Trump's planned blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
We expect Brent Crude to average over $100 dollars in the second quarter before easing back below $70 dollars by the end of the year assuming an easing of the constraint in the Strait of Hormuz.
Prior to conflict, Brent crude was projected to trade between $65 and $75 a barrel in 2026. Check out the latest outlook from the EIA short term outlook ...
Oil Supplement : EIA Short term outlook
April Crude oil price forecast. The Brent crude oil spot price averaged $103 per barrel (b) in March, and we expect it to peak in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26) at $115/b before easing as production shut-ins slowly abate. We maintain a risk premium on crude oil prices throughout the forecast period as we expect uncertainty around future supply disruptions to keep prices above pre-conflict levels. We forecast the Brent crude oil price will fall below $90/b in 4Q26 and average $76/b in 2027. This price forecast is highly dependent on our assumptions of both the duration of conflict in the Middle East and resulting outages in oil production.
March Crude oil price forecast. We forecast the Brent crude oil price will remain above $95/b over the next two months, before falling below $80/b in the third quarter of 2026 and around $70/b by the end of the year. We expect prices to average $64/b in 2027. This price forecast is highly dependent on our modeled assumptions of both the duration of conflict in the Middle East and resulting outages in oil production.
February Update. Global oil prices. The Brent crude oil price averaged $67 per barrel (b) in January, the highest since September 2025, as weather-related events disrupted the global crude oil supply and escalating tensions with Iran put upward pressure on prices. Despite these short-term events, we expect oil prices will decline in 2026, as global oil production exceeds global oil demand, causing oil inventories to rise. Global inventories continue increasing into 2027. We forecast the Brent crude oil price will average $58 per barrel (b) in 2026 and $53/b in 2027.
Julius Baer Sort Term Scenarios Probabilities March
Swift and Intense Probability: 70%
Energy price spike within April, topping within or just above the witnessed highs, easing before summer. Supply disruptions begin to ease within April. Minor lasting economic damage, regionally pronounced in Asia, and a hawkish tilt by central banks.
Enduring and Chaotic Probability: 25% |
Energy prices spike beyond the witnessed highs, easing slowly later this year. Lasting economic impact globally, hawkish central banks, and more pronounced risk-off trade on financial markets.
Oil Crisis Probability: 5%
To trigger a recession and a reset on financial markets, oil prices would need to spike beyond $175 for several months.
Monday Morning Markets ... Bitcoin ...
We mark Bitcoin at $72,874 from $66,984 Bitcoin up almost 9% this week. Bitcoin pushed higher as short positions were covered.
We said two weeks ago, the technical trend rate is emerging of head and shoulders with a $60,000 to 80,000 trading pattern. Continued risk-off sentiment in crypto markets could see a drop to $60,000. The level may offer support with a $60,000 to $70,000 short term range. Continue to expect a pull back to at least $60,000 with $40,000 the next support level.
Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone warns Bitcoin could crash to $10,000, calling the rally a “collapsing bubble” amid capital flight to safer assets. [Feb 17th].
We mark Bitcoin at $72,874 from $66,984 Bitcoin up almost 9% this week. Bitcoin pushed higher as short positions were covered.
We said two weeks ago, the technical trend rate is emerging of head and shoulders with a $60,000 to 80,000 trading pattern. Continued risk-off sentiment in crypto markets could see a drop to $60,000. The level may offer support with a $60,000 to $70,000 short term range. Continue to expect a pull back to at least $60,000 with $40,000 the next support level.
Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone warns Bitcoin could crash to $10,000, calling the rally a “collapsing bubble” amid capital flight to safer assets. [Feb 17th].
Monday Morning Markets ... Gold $...
We mark Gold at $4,751 from $4,678 last week, a near 2% rise in the week. Failing to recover the $5,000 dollar level. Gold was trading at $5,500 following Epic Fury strikes on Iran.
Prior to the strikes, "The outlook for gold prices in 2026 was predominantly bullish, with most analysts and financial institutions holding significant increases. Goldman's calling $5,400. J.P. Morgan predicts prices will reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, while Deutsche Bank is standing by a $6,000 year-end target, per their recent notes.
Here's what the World Gold Council has to say: "An environment characterized by elevated geopolitical tensions, shifting market correlations, and persistent currency risks underscores the importance of building resilient portfolios. Gold’s performance across market cycles, its diversification attributes and its ability to provide protection during periods of financial stress reinforce its strategic, long-term relevance within portfolios." © 2026 World Gold Council.
The over extension against trend evident from our chart. $4,000 the next call. A pull back to $2,500 would not be a huge shock. Central bank buying offers support but traders are leading the charge.
Warren Buffett’s case against the metal argues gold’s intrinsic value is no more than the cost of producing it, which in 2024 was somewhere around $1,500 an ounce across the bulk of the major miners. The all-in sustained cost (AISC) of production can therefore be seen as a potential floor for gold.
We mark Gold at $4,751 from $4,678 last week, a near 2% rise in the week. Failing to recover the $5,000 dollar level. Gold was trading at $5,500 following Epic Fury strikes on Iran.
Prior to the strikes, "The outlook for gold prices in 2026 was predominantly bullish, with most analysts and financial institutions holding significant increases. Goldman's calling $5,400. J.P. Morgan predicts prices will reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, while Deutsche Bank is standing by a $6,000 year-end target, per their recent notes.
Here's what the World Gold Council has to say: "An environment characterized by elevated geopolitical tensions, shifting market correlations, and persistent currency risks underscores the importance of building resilient portfolios. Gold’s performance across market cycles, its diversification attributes and its ability to provide protection during periods of financial stress reinforce its strategic, long-term relevance within portfolios." © 2026 World Gold Council.
The over extension against trend evident from our chart. $4,000 the next call. A pull back to $2,500 would not be a huge shock. Central bank buying offers support but traders are leading the charge.
Warren Buffett’s case against the metal argues gold’s intrinsic value is no more than the cost of producing it, which in 2024 was somewhere around $1,500 an ounce across the bulk of the major miners. The all-in sustained cost (AISC) of production can therefore be seen as a potential floor for gold.
That's all for this week ... "to understand the markets you have to understand the economics" and we do ...
© 2026 John Ashcroft, Economics, Strategy and Financial Markets, now with World View and AI, even more experience worth sharing.
The material is based upon information which we consider to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or omissions of opinion or fact. In particular, no reliance should be placed on the comments on trends in financial markets. The receipt of this communication should not be construed as the giving of advice relating to finance or investment.
© 2026 John Ashcroft, Economics, Strategy and Financial Markets, now with World View and AI, even more experience worth sharing.
The material is based upon information which we consider to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or omissions of opinion or fact. In particular, no reliance should be placed on the comments on trends in financial markets. The receipt of this communication should not be construed as the giving of advice relating to finance or investment.
