Monday Morning Markets ...
Market Outlook
This is our Monday Morning Markets Update. Every week we update our analysis of equities, bond yields, exchange rates, commodity prices and crypto. Prices marked Saturday 14th February 2026.
It is said the "markets takes the stairs up, but take the elevator down." Yeah and sometimes they just jump out the window. Bitcoin is a case in point. Bitcoin down 18% prior week, a big pullback from the 125k high in October 2025, marking a 45% setback. Neither a store of value nor a medium of exchange. It will remain, nevertheless, a traders favorite offering high volatility and the prospect of significant short term gains (or losses). Small rally this week doesn't change the outlook
We mark Gold at $5,043 from $4,969 last week. Up 1.5% in the week, marking a return to the $5,000 dollar level. Spot gold sits just over $5,000/oz following the high of $5,635 on the 28th January. That's a 10% adjustment still marking a big over extension. The charts always tell a great story.
Top line ...
A record number of fund managers see stocks as overvalued, but the majority remain bullish, according to the Bank of America global fund manager survey in the short term. We model in a 15% to 20% correction in the US and Europe and a 20% to 25% adjustment in Hang Seng and Nikkei with a more modest adjustment in 10% to 15% in Shanghai.
"Cash no longer Trash, (Jamie Dimon), Bonds are Garbage ( Bill Gross), Equities Are Overvalued (Everyman), Bitcoin is worthless (Jamie Dimon), Most NFTs are junk (John Hargrave)". "Crypto is a ‘hot ball of money’ with very little intrinsic value", says hedge fund Starkiller Capital.
When it comes to understanding market moves, "Any explanation is better than none" (Nietzsche). Be careful out there ... and remember ... "To understand the markets, you have to understand the economics" ... and we do!
This is our Monday Morning Markets Update. Every week we update our analysis of equities, bond yields, exchange rates, commodity prices and crypto. Prices marked Saturday 14th February 2026.
It is said the "markets takes the stairs up, but take the elevator down." Yeah and sometimes they just jump out the window. Bitcoin is a case in point. Bitcoin down 18% prior week, a big pullback from the 125k high in October 2025, marking a 45% setback. Neither a store of value nor a medium of exchange. It will remain, nevertheless, a traders favorite offering high volatility and the prospect of significant short term gains (or losses). Small rally this week doesn't change the outlook
We mark Gold at $5,043 from $4,969 last week. Up 1.5% in the week, marking a return to the $5,000 dollar level. Spot gold sits just over $5,000/oz following the high of $5,635 on the 28th January. That's a 10% adjustment still marking a big over extension. The charts always tell a great story.
Top line ...
A record number of fund managers see stocks as overvalued, but the majority remain bullish, according to the Bank of America global fund manager survey in the short term. We model in a 15% to 20% correction in the US and Europe and a 20% to 25% adjustment in Hang Seng and Nikkei with a more modest adjustment in 10% to 15% in Shanghai.
"Cash no longer Trash, (Jamie Dimon), Bonds are Garbage ( Bill Gross), Equities Are Overvalued (Everyman), Bitcoin is worthless (Jamie Dimon), Most NFTs are junk (John Hargrave)". "Crypto is a ‘hot ball of money’ with very little intrinsic value", says hedge fund Starkiller Capital.
When it comes to understanding market moves, "Any explanation is better than none" (Nietzsche). Be careful out there ... and remember ... "To understand the markets, you have to understand the economics" ... and we do!
Disclaimer: This "Monday Morning Markets" analysis is for information purposes only and does not constitute 'investment advice' as defined by the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Regulated Activities) Order 2001. We are not authorized or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). No part of this material should be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument."
We do not provide licensed financial or investment advice. We do not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any individual. You should consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions."
We do not provide licensed financial or investment advice. We do not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any individual. You should consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions."
Monday Morning Markets ... Equities ...
We track ten markets in our global equities model. The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ in the U.S.A, the FTSE, CAC and Dax in Europe. In Asia, Nikkei, Hang Seng, Shanghai and BSE feature.
U.S. markets down 1.6% this week, led by a 2% plus NASDAQ decline. European stocks up by 0.7%. Asian stocks up by almost 2.0% led by a strong Nikkei performance.
In our forward outlook, We model in a 15% to 20% correction in the US and Europe and a 20% to 25% adjustment in Hang Seng and Nikkei with a more modest adjustment of 10% to 15% in Shanghai.
We track ten markets in our global equities model. The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ in the U.S.A, the FTSE, CAC and Dax in Europe. In Asia, Nikkei, Hang Seng, Shanghai and BSE feature.
U.S. markets down 1.6% this week, led by a 2% plus NASDAQ decline. European stocks up by 0.7%. Asian stocks up by almost 2.0% led by a strong Nikkei performance.
In our forward outlook, We model in a 15% to 20% correction in the US and Europe and a 20% to 25% adjustment in Hang Seng and Nikkei with a more modest adjustment of 10% to 15% in Shanghai.
Monday Morning Markets ... Currencies
Dollar softer this week. The Dollar Index down 0.8% to 96.55. Sterling moved to $1.37 from $1.36, the Euro moved to $1.19 from $1.18. The trend stays balanced with both EUR and GBP up slighty against a slightly weaker but still range‑bound dollar.
Dollar softer this week. The Dollar Index down 0.8% to 96.55. Sterling moved to $1.37 from $1.36, the Euro moved to $1.19 from $1.18. The trend stays balanced with both EUR and GBP up slighty against a slightly weaker but still range‑bound dollar.
Monday Morning Markets ... Bond Yields ...
US Ten year yields were at 4.05 from 4.21. UK ten year gilts were at 4.41 from 4.51. Japanese yields steady at 2.21. Yields moved lower on softer than expected US inflation data. Policy expectations: UK moves align with softer data and expectations of BoE easing later in 2026, while the bigger US rally reflects rising odds of Fed cuts priced into the curve.
In the UK, prior to the Great Financial Crash [2000 - 2008] the average inflation rate was 2.0%, the average UK bank rate was 4.50%. Ten year gilt yields averaged 4.50%. Thirty year gilts averaged 4.60%. The average growth rate was 2.5%. The average unemployment rate was 5.0%. Earnings averaged 3.9%.
US Ten year yields were at 4.05 from 4.21. UK ten year gilts were at 4.41 from 4.51. Japanese yields steady at 2.21. Yields moved lower on softer than expected US inflation data. Policy expectations: UK moves align with softer data and expectations of BoE easing later in 2026, while the bigger US rally reflects rising odds of Fed cuts priced into the curve.
In the UK, prior to the Great Financial Crash [2000 - 2008] the average inflation rate was 2.0%, the average UK bank rate was 4.50%. Ten year gilt yields averaged 4.50%. Thirty year gilts averaged 4.60%. The average growth rate was 2.5%. The average unemployment rate was 5.0%. Earnings averaged 3.9%.
Monday Morning Markets ... Oil Prices Brent Crude ...
Oil prices Brent Crude basis eased to $67.75 from $68.05 last week. Brent Crude down 0.4% in the week marking its second weekly decline in about eight weeks as prices consolidate after a strong rally. Concerns about a 3.7 mb/d 2026 surplus weigh on prices and hint at softer energy demand.
Brent crude is projected to trade between $65 and $75 a barrel in 2026. The EIA outlook is considerably bearish on the price outlook for 2026. EIA forecast Brent crude oil price will fall to an average of $54 per barrel (b) in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26) and average $55/b for all of this year. We forward hedge at around $68 dollars at this time.
Oil Supplement : EIA Short term outlook December
Global oil prices. We [EIA] expect global oil inventories to continue to rise through 2026, putting downward pressure on oil prices in the coming months. We forecast the Brent crude oil price will fall to an average of $55 per barrel (b) in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26) and remain near that price for the rest of next year. Although we expect crude oil prices to continue to fall in the coming months, we assess that both the OPEC+ production policy and China’s continued inventory builds will limit price declines.
February Update. Global oil prices. The Brent crude oil price averaged $67 per barrel (b) in January, the highest since September 2025, as weather-related events disrupted the global crude oil supply and escalating tensions with Iran put upward pressure on prices. Despite these short-term events, we expect oil prices will decline in 2026, as global oil production exceeds global oil demand, causing oil inventories to rise. Global inventories continue increasing into 2027. We forecast the Brent crude oil price will average $58 per barrel (b) in 2026 and $53/b in 2027.
Oil prices Brent Crude basis eased to $67.75 from $68.05 last week. Brent Crude down 0.4% in the week marking its second weekly decline in about eight weeks as prices consolidate after a strong rally. Concerns about a 3.7 mb/d 2026 surplus weigh on prices and hint at softer energy demand.
Brent crude is projected to trade between $65 and $75 a barrel in 2026. The EIA outlook is considerably bearish on the price outlook for 2026. EIA forecast Brent crude oil price will fall to an average of $54 per barrel (b) in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26) and average $55/b for all of this year. We forward hedge at around $68 dollars at this time.
Oil Supplement : EIA Short term outlook December
Global oil prices. We [EIA] expect global oil inventories to continue to rise through 2026, putting downward pressure on oil prices in the coming months. We forecast the Brent crude oil price will fall to an average of $55 per barrel (b) in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26) and remain near that price for the rest of next year. Although we expect crude oil prices to continue to fall in the coming months, we assess that both the OPEC+ production policy and China’s continued inventory builds will limit price declines.
February Update. Global oil prices. The Brent crude oil price averaged $67 per barrel (b) in January, the highest since September 2025, as weather-related events disrupted the global crude oil supply and escalating tensions with Iran put upward pressure on prices. Despite these short-term events, we expect oil prices will decline in 2026, as global oil production exceeds global oil demand, causing oil inventories to rise. Global inventories continue increasing into 2027. We forecast the Brent crude oil price will average $58 per barrel (b) in 2026 and $53/b in 2027.
Monday Morning Markets ... Bitcoin ...
We mark Bitcoin at $70,4201 from $67,891 Bitcoin up 3.7% this week. Bitcoin is beating a weekly retreat a big pullback from the 120k+ 2025 peak. The week moves suggests a short term rally.
We said two weeks ago, the technical trend rate is emerging of head and shoulders with a $80,000 downside. Continued risk-off sentiment in cryptocurrency markets could see a drop to $70,000. The level may offer support with a $60,000 to $70,000 short term range. Continue to expect a pull back to at least $60,000.
We mark Bitcoin at $70,4201 from $67,891 Bitcoin up 3.7% this week. Bitcoin is beating a weekly retreat a big pullback from the 120k+ 2025 peak. The week moves suggests a short term rally.
We said two weeks ago, the technical trend rate is emerging of head and shoulders with a $80,000 downside. Continued risk-off sentiment in cryptocurrency markets could see a drop to $70,000. The level may offer support with a $60,000 to $70,000 short term range. Continue to expect a pull back to at least $60,000.
Monday Morning Markets ... Gold $...
We mark Gold at $5,043 from $4,969 last week. Up 1.5% in the week, marking a return above the $5,000 dollar level, modestly higher on the week as investors tilt toward defensive assets. The level appears tenuous.
The outlook for gold prices in 2026 remains predominantly bullish, with most analysts and financial institutions holding significant increases. $5,000 the favored target. The over extension against trend evident from our chart. A pull back to $2,000 would not be a huge shock. Central bank buying offers support but traders are leading the charge.
Warren Buffett’s case against the metal argues gold’s intrinsic value is no more than the cost of producing it, which in 2024 was somewhere around $1,500 an ounce across the bulk of the major miners. The all-in sustained cost (AISC) of production can therefore be seen as a potential floor for gold.
We mark Gold at $5,043 from $4,969 last week. Up 1.5% in the week, marking a return above the $5,000 dollar level, modestly higher on the week as investors tilt toward defensive assets. The level appears tenuous.
The outlook for gold prices in 2026 remains predominantly bullish, with most analysts and financial institutions holding significant increases. $5,000 the favored target. The over extension against trend evident from our chart. A pull back to $2,000 would not be a huge shock. Central bank buying offers support but traders are leading the charge.
Warren Buffett’s case against the metal argues gold’s intrinsic value is no more than the cost of producing it, which in 2024 was somewhere around $1,500 an ounce across the bulk of the major miners. The all-in sustained cost (AISC) of production can therefore be seen as a potential floor for gold.
That's all for this week ... "to understand the markets you have to understand the economics" and we do ...
© 2025 John Ashcroft, Economics, Strategy and Financial Markets, experience worth sharing.
The material is based upon information which we consider to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or omissions of opinion or fact. In particular, no reliance should be placed on the comments on trends in financial markets. The receipt of this communicaion should not be construed as the giving of advice relating to finance or investment.
© 2025 John Ashcroft, Economics, Strategy and Financial Markets, experience worth sharing.
The material is based upon information which we consider to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or omissions of opinion or fact. In particular, no reliance should be placed on the comments on trends in financial markets. The receipt of this communicaion should not be construed as the giving of advice relating to finance or investment.
