Monday Morning Markets ...
Market Outlook
This is our Monday Morning Markets Update. Every week we update our analysis of equities, bond yields, exchange rates, commodity prices and crypto. Prices marked Saturday 8th August 2026. Oil prices down 5% this week. Equities up in the USA, Europe and in Asia. Gold up 7%, Bitcoin up 3%.
It is said the "markets takes the stairs up, but take the elevator down." Yeah and sometimes they just jump out the window. Bitcoin a case in point. Bitcoin marked at $65,000, a near 50% fall from the 125k high in October 2025. Neither a store of value nor a medium of exchange. It will remain a traders favorite offering high volatility and the prospect of significant short term gains (or losses).
We mark Gold at $4,343 Saturday, up 7%. Gold the safe haven beneficiary from the uncertainty of war, covered by the uncertainty of over extension. Charts always tell a great story. Gold prices over extended , struggling to hold the $4,000 level. Central banks offering support with strong buying into May, led by China and Poland. In June the PBoC extended its gold-buying streak to 20 months, reporting the largest gold purchase since October 2023 lifting its holdings to 2,346 tonnes, representing 8% of total reserves.
Top line ...
A record number of fund managers see stocks as overvalued. They would receive some support this week! In our forward outlook, we model an 25% draw down in the US, an 19% adjustment in Europe and a 23% realignment in our three primary Asian markets. The CAPE fear index eases up to 42.4 , slightly off the 2000 high of 43.2.
S&P at 7,490, Strategists now see the S&P 500 at roughly 7,800–8,000 by end-2026, signaling meaningful upside driven mainly by earnings growth, not higher valuations.
Dow and Nasdaq views: Recent notes lack precise end-2026 levels for the Dow and Nasdaq, but tone stays constructive, with AI-related strength and resilient growth supporting a bullish bias.
"Cash no longer Trash, (Jamie Dimon), Bonds are Garbage ( Bill Gross), Equities Are Overvalued (Everyman), Bitcoin is worthless (Jamie Dimon), Most NFTs are junk (John Hargrave)". "Crypto is a ‘hot ball of money’ with very little intrinsic value", says hedge fund Starkiller Capital.
When it comes to understanding market moves, "Any explanation is better than none" (Nietzsche). Be careful out there ... and remember ... "To understand the markets, you have to understand the economics" ... and we do!
This is our Monday Morning Markets Update. Every week we update our analysis of equities, bond yields, exchange rates, commodity prices and crypto. Prices marked Saturday 8th August 2026. Oil prices down 5% this week. Equities up in the USA, Europe and in Asia. Gold up 7%, Bitcoin up 3%.
It is said the "markets takes the stairs up, but take the elevator down." Yeah and sometimes they just jump out the window. Bitcoin a case in point. Bitcoin marked at $65,000, a near 50% fall from the 125k high in October 2025. Neither a store of value nor a medium of exchange. It will remain a traders favorite offering high volatility and the prospect of significant short term gains (or losses).
We mark Gold at $4,343 Saturday, up 7%. Gold the safe haven beneficiary from the uncertainty of war, covered by the uncertainty of over extension. Charts always tell a great story. Gold prices over extended , struggling to hold the $4,000 level. Central banks offering support with strong buying into May, led by China and Poland. In June the PBoC extended its gold-buying streak to 20 months, reporting the largest gold purchase since October 2023 lifting its holdings to 2,346 tonnes, representing 8% of total reserves.
Top line ...
A record number of fund managers see stocks as overvalued. They would receive some support this week! In our forward outlook, we model an 25% draw down in the US, an 19% adjustment in Europe and a 23% realignment in our three primary Asian markets. The CAPE fear index eases up to 42.4 , slightly off the 2000 high of 43.2.
S&P at 7,490, Strategists now see the S&P 500 at roughly 7,800–8,000 by end-2026, signaling meaningful upside driven mainly by earnings growth, not higher valuations.
Dow and Nasdaq views: Recent notes lack precise end-2026 levels for the Dow and Nasdaq, but tone stays constructive, with AI-related strength and resilient growth supporting a bullish bias.
"Cash no longer Trash, (Jamie Dimon), Bonds are Garbage ( Bill Gross), Equities Are Overvalued (Everyman), Bitcoin is worthless (Jamie Dimon), Most NFTs are junk (John Hargrave)". "Crypto is a ‘hot ball of money’ with very little intrinsic value", says hedge fund Starkiller Capital.
When it comes to understanding market moves, "Any explanation is better than none" (Nietzsche). Be careful out there ... and remember ... "To understand the markets, you have to understand the economics" ... and we do!
Disclaimer: This "Monday Morning Markets" analysis is for information purposes only and does not constitute 'investment advice' as defined by the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Regulated Activities) Order 2001. We are not authorized or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). No part of this material should be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument."
We do not provide licensed financial or investment advice. We do not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any individual. You should consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions."
We do not provide licensed financial or investment advice. We do not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any individual. You should consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions."
Monday Morning Markets ... Equities ...
We track ten markets in our global equities model. The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ in the U.S.A, the FTSE, CAC and Dax in Europe. In Asia, Nikkei, Hang Seng, Shanghai and BSE feature.
Markets up across the board. Asian markets up 1.3%. European markets up 1.8%. US markets up 3.9%, led by a strong 5% Nasdaq move.
Our Empires of the Cloud fund was up 3%. Huge gains in Met and Miicrosoft, offset by near 1% losses in Google. Our empires fund was up 1% Alibaba leading with a 5% gain.
We track ten markets in our global equities model. The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ in the U.S.A, the FTSE, CAC and Dax in Europe. In Asia, Nikkei, Hang Seng, Shanghai and BSE feature.
Markets up across the board. Asian markets up 1.3%. European markets up 1.8%. US markets up 3.9%, led by a strong 5% Nasdaq move.
Our Empires of the Cloud fund was up 3%. Huge gains in Met and Miicrosoft, offset by near 1% losses in Google. Our empires fund was up 1% Alibaba leading with a 5% gain.
Monday Morning Markets ... Currencies
Sentiment moved against the Dollar this week. this week. Dollar Index at 99.29 from 99.51. Sterling at $1.35 against the Dollar from $1.33 and at €1.17 against the Euro from €1.17. The Euro up against the Dollar at $1.16 from $1.15.
Bigger role for the Euro?
"As the US dollar weakens amid geopolitical upheaval, Euro-area finance ministers are pushing to expand the role of the single currency. They met in Brussels February and on their agenda was promotion of the currency’s issuance and use in transactions. Given the global context, it’s become “existential for us to safeguard the international role of the euro as it is quite pertinent for the EU’s monetary sovereignty,” said Greek Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis, who chaired the meeting."
Bigger Role for the Chinese yuan (renminbi) The suggestion that the Chinese yuan (renminbi) is positioned to achieve global reserve status came directly from Chinese President Xi Jinping in February 2026, though major U.S. banks like Goldman Sachs have simultaneously issued "high-conviction" reports predicting the currency's significant rise.
CONTEXT: The "five-year" timeline aligns with the 2026–2030 planning cycle. However, while Beijing and some Wall Street analysts are bullish, the yuan currently accounts for only ~2% of global reserves, compared to the U.S. dollar's ~58%. Analysts caution that achieving true reserve status requires China to further relax capital controls, a move Beijing has historically been reluctant to take fully.
China’s yuan may be going global faster than Western data suggests, analysts say.
Mainstream metrics may understate the role of China’s currency in global payments, as a growing share of transactions is now routed through Beijing’s own cross-border payment system and not fully reflected in conventional data sets, analysts say. This could help explain the gap between Beijing’s official narrative – which describes the yuan as the world’s third-largest payment currency – and readings from tracking systems such as the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (Swift).
Sentiment moved against the Dollar this week. this week. Dollar Index at 99.29 from 99.51. Sterling at $1.35 against the Dollar from $1.33 and at €1.17 against the Euro from €1.17. The Euro up against the Dollar at $1.16 from $1.15.
Bigger role for the Euro?
"As the US dollar weakens amid geopolitical upheaval, Euro-area finance ministers are pushing to expand the role of the single currency. They met in Brussels February and on their agenda was promotion of the currency’s issuance and use in transactions. Given the global context, it’s become “existential for us to safeguard the international role of the euro as it is quite pertinent for the EU’s monetary sovereignty,” said Greek Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis, who chaired the meeting."
Bigger Role for the Chinese yuan (renminbi) The suggestion that the Chinese yuan (renminbi) is positioned to achieve global reserve status came directly from Chinese President Xi Jinping in February 2026, though major U.S. banks like Goldman Sachs have simultaneously issued "high-conviction" reports predicting the currency's significant rise.
- Primary Source: In early February 2026, President Xi Jinping published an article in Qiushi (the CCP’s flagship journal) explicitly calling for the renminbi to attain "global reserve currency status" as part of China's goal to become a "financial powerhouse."
- U.S. Bank Involvement: While Xi set the political goal, Goldman Sachs released a major 2026 FX strategy report labeling the yuan as one of its "highest conviction" ideas, arguing it is undervalued by 25% and poised for a structural rise.
- Economic Context: Morgan Stanley’s 2026 "Big Picture" report noted that the yuan has already entered the top three global trade finance currencies, with over 30% of China's trade now settled in RMB.
- Implementation: The push is tied to China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), which prioritizes "current account liberalization" to boost global demand for the currency.
CONTEXT: The "five-year" timeline aligns with the 2026–2030 planning cycle. However, while Beijing and some Wall Street analysts are bullish, the yuan currently accounts for only ~2% of global reserves, compared to the U.S. dollar's ~58%. Analysts caution that achieving true reserve status requires China to further relax capital controls, a move Beijing has historically been reluctant to take fully.
China’s yuan may be going global faster than Western data suggests, analysts say.
Mainstream metrics may understate the role of China’s currency in global payments, as a growing share of transactions is now routed through Beijing’s own cross-border payment system and not fully reflected in conventional data sets, analysts say. This could help explain the gap between Beijing’s official narrative – which describes the yuan as the world’s third-largest payment currency – and readings from tracking systems such as the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (Swift).
Monday Morning Markets ... UK Yield Curve ...
UK ten year gilts were at 4.92 from 5.04. Twenty year gilts trade at 5.57 from 5.69. Thirty year gilts trade at 5.66 from 5.77. The potential run down (capital gain to a five year maturity) is 27% for thirties, 25% for twenties, 19% for fifteens and 10% for tens. Long bonds remain over sold. Fill your boots, lock up the yield and lock up the capital gain to come ...
UK ten year gilts were at 4.92 from 5.04. Twenty year gilts trade at 5.57 from 5.69. Thirty year gilts trade at 5.66 from 5.77. The potential run down (capital gain to a five year maturity) is 27% for thirties, 25% for twenties, 19% for fifteens and 10% for tens. Long bonds remain over sold. Fill your boots, lock up the yield and lock up the capital gain to come ...
Monday Morning Markets ... Bond Yields ...
US Ten year yields were at 4.65 from 4.73. UK ten year gilts were at 4.92 from 5.04. Japanese yields up at 2.77 from 2.77. UK ten years remain oversold, still marking a great yield lock in with capital gain to follow.
In the UK, prior to the Great Financial Crash [2000 - 2008] the average inflation rate was 2.0%, the average UK bank rate was 4.50%. Ten year gilt yields averaged 4.50%. Thirty year gilts averaged 4.60%. The average GDP growth rate was 2.5%. The average unemployment rate was 5.0%. Earnings averaged 3.9%.
Then came life on Planet ZIRP financial markets base rates and bond rates were distorted. Back to reality with bonds and gilts slightly oversold for the moment.
US Ten year yields were at 4.65 from 4.73. UK ten year gilts were at 4.92 from 5.04. Japanese yields up at 2.77 from 2.77. UK ten years remain oversold, still marking a great yield lock in with capital gain to follow.
In the UK, prior to the Great Financial Crash [2000 - 2008] the average inflation rate was 2.0%, the average UK bank rate was 4.50%. Ten year gilt yields averaged 4.50%. Thirty year gilts averaged 4.60%. The average GDP growth rate was 2.5%. The average unemployment rate was 5.0%. Earnings averaged 3.9%.
Then came life on Planet ZIRP financial markets base rates and bond rates were distorted. Back to reality with bonds and gilts slightly oversold for the moment.
Monday Morning Markets ... Oil Prices Brent Crude ...
Oil prices Brent Crude basis marked at $83.55 from $87.90 prior week. Brent Crude down 5% as news of extended ceasefire and hopes for opening the Strait of Hormuz reappear.
We expect Brent Crude to average $80 - $85 dollars in the third quarter, steady at $80 dollars by the end of the year assuming an easing of the constraint in the Strait of Hormuz. For the moment this outlook is hazed by Gulf-region attacks, geopolitical premia and supply risks as buffer stocks are put under pressure.
Oil Supplement : EIA Short Term Outlook
July Crude Oil Price Forecast :
Expectations of increasing oil supply and moderating inventory draws have caused oil prices to fall. The Brent crude oil spot price averaged $85 per barrel (b) in June, down $22/b from May and $32/b from its recent April 2026 peak. The Brent price in our forecast averages $74/b in 3Q26, a reduction of $27/b from last month’s outlook. We expect ongoing oil inventory accumulation over the next year will continue to put downward pressure on crude oil prices, with Brent falling to an average of $65/b in 2027.
Oil prices Brent Crude basis marked at $83.55 from $87.90 prior week. Brent Crude down 5% as news of extended ceasefire and hopes for opening the Strait of Hormuz reappear.
We expect Brent Crude to average $80 - $85 dollars in the third quarter, steady at $80 dollars by the end of the year assuming an easing of the constraint in the Strait of Hormuz. For the moment this outlook is hazed by Gulf-region attacks, geopolitical premia and supply risks as buffer stocks are put under pressure.
Oil Supplement : EIA Short Term Outlook
July Crude Oil Price Forecast :
Expectations of increasing oil supply and moderating inventory draws have caused oil prices to fall. The Brent crude oil spot price averaged $85 per barrel (b) in June, down $22/b from May and $32/b from its recent April 2026 peak. The Brent price in our forecast averages $74/b in 3Q26, a reduction of $27/b from last month’s outlook. We expect ongoing oil inventory accumulation over the next year will continue to put downward pressure on crude oil prices, with Brent falling to an average of $65/b in 2027.
Monday Morning Markets ... Bitcoin ...
We mark Bitcoin at $64,973 from $62,936 prior week. Bitcoin up 3% this week, a fragile, range-bound rebound. Finding support at $60,000 just. Bitcoin is consolidating after steep monthly losses. Bitcoin trades slightly up in the week, with subdued volatility and price action consistent with post‑selloff consolidation. Market overhang, about $1B in leveraged long liquidations amidst a high-beta, risk-off tone.
We said some weeks ago, the technical trend rate is emerging of head and shoulders with a $60,000 to 80,000 trading pattern. Continued risk-off sentiment in crypto markets could see a drop to $60,000, we said. The level may now offer support with a $60,000 to $70,000 short term range. Continue to expect a hold at $60,000 with $40,000 the next support level. Should be continued action around the $60,000 level first.
Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone warns Bitcoin could crash to $10,000, calling the rally a “collapsing bubble”. [Feb 17th]. $40k, $30k and $20k are the steps to break through first. We like it at $20k, average in at $30,000.
We mark Bitcoin at $64,973 from $62,936 prior week. Bitcoin up 3% this week, a fragile, range-bound rebound. Finding support at $60,000 just. Bitcoin is consolidating after steep monthly losses. Bitcoin trades slightly up in the week, with subdued volatility and price action consistent with post‑selloff consolidation. Market overhang, about $1B in leveraged long liquidations amidst a high-beta, risk-off tone.
We said some weeks ago, the technical trend rate is emerging of head and shoulders with a $60,000 to 80,000 trading pattern. Continued risk-off sentiment in crypto markets could see a drop to $60,000, we said. The level may now offer support with a $60,000 to $70,000 short term range. Continue to expect a hold at $60,000 with $40,000 the next support level. Should be continued action around the $60,000 level first.
Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone warns Bitcoin could crash to $10,000, calling the rally a “collapsing bubble”. [Feb 17th]. $40k, $30k and $20k are the steps to break through first. We like it at $20k, average in at $30,000.
Monday Morning Markets ... Gold $...
We mark Gold at $4,343 from $4,046 last week up 7.3% in the week, driven by safe-haven demand and softer labour data lowering rate-hike and inflation expectations.. Failing to recover the $5,000 dollar level. Gold was trading at $5,500 following Epic Fury strikes on Iran. Spot gold dropped further, as profit‑taking combines with pressure from hawkish Fed statements and a firmer U.S. dollar narrative.
Gold struggled to hold the $4,000 level , now with a projected $3,640–$4,580 weekly band. Central banks offering support with strong buying into May, led by China and Poland. In June the PBoC extended its gold-buying streak to 20 months, reporting the largest gold purchase since October 2023 lifting holdings to 2,346 tonnes, representing 8% of total reserves.
Prior to the strikes, "The outlook for gold prices in 2026 was predominantly bullish, with most analysts and financial institutions holding significant increases. Goldman's calling $5,400. J.P. Morgan predicted prices will reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, while Deutsche Bank is standing by a $6,000 year-end target, per their recent notes. Looking for a near-term correction within a medium-term uptrend?
Here's what the World Gold Council has to say: "An environment characterized by elevated geopolitical tensions, shifting market correlations, and persistent currency risks underscores the importance of building resilient portfolios. Gold’s performance across market cycles, its diversification attributes and its ability to provide protection during periods of financial stress reinforce its strategic, long-term relevance within portfolios." © 2026 World Gold Council.
The over extension against trend evident from our chart. $4,000 the next call. A pull back to $2,500 would not be a huge shock.
Warren Buffett’s case against the metal argues gold’s intrinsic value is no more than the cost of producing it, which in 2024 was somewhere around $1,500 an ounce across the bulk of the major miners. The all-in sustained cost (AISC) of production can therefore be seen as a potential floor for gold.
We mark Gold at $4,343 from $4,046 last week up 7.3% in the week, driven by safe-haven demand and softer labour data lowering rate-hike and inflation expectations.. Failing to recover the $5,000 dollar level. Gold was trading at $5,500 following Epic Fury strikes on Iran. Spot gold dropped further, as profit‑taking combines with pressure from hawkish Fed statements and a firmer U.S. dollar narrative.
Gold struggled to hold the $4,000 level , now with a projected $3,640–$4,580 weekly band. Central banks offering support with strong buying into May, led by China and Poland. In June the PBoC extended its gold-buying streak to 20 months, reporting the largest gold purchase since October 2023 lifting holdings to 2,346 tonnes, representing 8% of total reserves.
Prior to the strikes, "The outlook for gold prices in 2026 was predominantly bullish, with most analysts and financial institutions holding significant increases. Goldman's calling $5,400. J.P. Morgan predicted prices will reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, while Deutsche Bank is standing by a $6,000 year-end target, per their recent notes. Looking for a near-term correction within a medium-term uptrend?
Here's what the World Gold Council has to say: "An environment characterized by elevated geopolitical tensions, shifting market correlations, and persistent currency risks underscores the importance of building resilient portfolios. Gold’s performance across market cycles, its diversification attributes and its ability to provide protection during periods of financial stress reinforce its strategic, long-term relevance within portfolios." © 2026 World Gold Council.
The over extension against trend evident from our chart. $4,000 the next call. A pull back to $2,500 would not be a huge shock.
Warren Buffett’s case against the metal argues gold’s intrinsic value is no more than the cost of producing it, which in 2024 was somewhere around $1,500 an ounce across the bulk of the major miners. The all-in sustained cost (AISC) of production can therefore be seen as a potential floor for gold.
That's all for this week ... "to understand the markets you have to understand the economics" and we do ...
© 2026 John Ashcroft, Economics, Strategy and Financial Markets, now with World View and AI, even more experience worth sharing.
The material is based upon information which we consider to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or omissions of opinion or fact. In particular, no reliance should be placed on the comments on trends in financial markets. The receipt of this communication should not be construed as the giving of advice relating to finance or investment.
© 2026 John Ashcroft, Economics, Strategy and Financial Markets, now with World View and AI, even more experience worth sharing.
The material is based upon information which we consider to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or omissions of opinion or fact. In particular, no reliance should be placed on the comments on trends in financial markets. The receipt of this communication should not be construed as the giving of advice relating to finance or investment.
