Monday Morning Markets ...
Market Outlook
This is our Monday Morning Markets Update. Every week we update our analysis of equities, bond yields, exchange rates, commodity prices and crypto. Prices marked Saturday 6th June 2026. Oil prices down 0.6% this week. Equities slipping in U.S. and Asia, and Europe. Gold down 4.7%, Bitcoin crashes to $60,000 down 18%.
It is said the "markets takes the stairs up, but take the elevator down." Yeah and sometimes they just jump out the window. Bitcoin is a case in point. Bitcoin marked at $60,000, a 52% fall from the 125k high in October 2025. Neither a store of value nor a medium of exchange. It will remain a traders favorite offering high volatility and the prospect of significant short term gains (or losses).
We mark Gold at $4,330 Saturday down almost 5%. Gold the safe haven beneficiary from the uncertainty of war, covered by the uncertainty of over extension. Charts always tell a great story. Gold prices over extended still but central banks offering support.
Top line ...
A record number of fund managers see stocks as overvalued. They would receive some support this week! In our forward outlook, we model an 21% draw down in the US, a 15% adjustment in Europe and a 23% realignment in our three primary Asian markets. Traders are beginning to think this could be the buy back in level. Sarah Breedon Bank Deputy Governor thinks markets are set for a fall. Berkshire Hathaway sits on a near $400 billion dollar cash pile and buys back stock. Warren Buffet thinks markets have turned into a casino. It's all about speculation rather than investment.
"Cash no longer Trash, (Jamie Dimon), Bonds are Garbage ( Bill Gross), Equities Are Overvalued (Everyman), Bitcoin is worthless (Jamie Dimon), Most NFTs are junk (John Hargrave)". "Crypto is a ‘hot ball of money’ with very little intrinsic value", says hedge fund Starkiller Capital.
When it comes to understanding market moves, "Any explanation is better than none" (Nietzsche). Be careful out there ... and remember ... "To understand the markets, you have to understand the economics" ... and we do!
This is our Monday Morning Markets Update. Every week we update our analysis of equities, bond yields, exchange rates, commodity prices and crypto. Prices marked Saturday 6th June 2026. Oil prices down 0.6% this week. Equities slipping in U.S. and Asia, and Europe. Gold down 4.7%, Bitcoin crashes to $60,000 down 18%.
It is said the "markets takes the stairs up, but take the elevator down." Yeah and sometimes they just jump out the window. Bitcoin is a case in point. Bitcoin marked at $60,000, a 52% fall from the 125k high in October 2025. Neither a store of value nor a medium of exchange. It will remain a traders favorite offering high volatility and the prospect of significant short term gains (or losses).
We mark Gold at $4,330 Saturday down almost 5%. Gold the safe haven beneficiary from the uncertainty of war, covered by the uncertainty of over extension. Charts always tell a great story. Gold prices over extended still but central banks offering support.
Top line ...
A record number of fund managers see stocks as overvalued. They would receive some support this week! In our forward outlook, we model an 21% draw down in the US, a 15% adjustment in Europe and a 23% realignment in our three primary Asian markets. Traders are beginning to think this could be the buy back in level. Sarah Breedon Bank Deputy Governor thinks markets are set for a fall. Berkshire Hathaway sits on a near $400 billion dollar cash pile and buys back stock. Warren Buffet thinks markets have turned into a casino. It's all about speculation rather than investment.
"Cash no longer Trash, (Jamie Dimon), Bonds are Garbage ( Bill Gross), Equities Are Overvalued (Everyman), Bitcoin is worthless (Jamie Dimon), Most NFTs are junk (John Hargrave)". "Crypto is a ‘hot ball of money’ with very little intrinsic value", says hedge fund Starkiller Capital.
When it comes to understanding market moves, "Any explanation is better than none" (Nietzsche). Be careful out there ... and remember ... "To understand the markets, you have to understand the economics" ... and we do!
Disclaimer: This "Monday Morning Markets" analysis is for information purposes only and does not constitute 'investment advice' as defined by the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Regulated Activities) Order 2001. We are not authorized or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). No part of this material should be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument."
We do not provide licensed financial or investment advice. We do not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any individual. You should consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions."
We do not provide licensed financial or investment advice. We do not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any individual. You should consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions."
Monday Morning Markets ... Equities ...
We track ten markets in our global equities model. The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ in the U.S.A, the FTSE, CAC and Dax in Europe. In Asia, Nikkei, Hang Seng, Shanghai and BSE feature.
Markets slip across the board. Asian markets down -0.5%. European markets down -0.4%. US markets down 2.5% as Nasdaq excitement about AI and chip stocks comes under review. Nasdaq down 4.7%, S&P down 2.6%. Uncle Dow watches on down just -0.3%. Outlook assumes no U.S. recession and Fed ratees steady, yet sticky inflation, oil/geopolitics, rich valuations, and narrow tech-led breadth keep correction and downside risks elevated.
Our Empires of the Cloud fund was down 5% with a big falls in Amazon, Meta and Microsoft. Modest falls in Apple and Google ease the pain but not much. Our dynasties trio was off 2.2%. Markets hammer Baidu down 10%. Alibaba slips almost 3% as Tencent rallies up 6%. AI and cloud narratives support Alibaba and Baidu long term, but near-term moves are dominated by China macro and regulation.
Bull market baseline: Strategists see the U.S. equity bull market extending through 2026, with mid‑ to high‑single‑digit annual gains and earnings growth in the mid‑teens. We are more circumspect. In our forward outlook, we model an 21% draw down in the US, a 15% adjustment in Europe and a 23% realignment in our three primary Asian markets.
2026 targets and returns: Street expects S&P 500 around 7,500–7,650 and Dow near 52,000 by end‑2026, implying roughly 5–10% upside from mid‑April levels; Nasdaq seen outperforming on AI strength.
We track ten markets in our global equities model. The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ in the U.S.A, the FTSE, CAC and Dax in Europe. In Asia, Nikkei, Hang Seng, Shanghai and BSE feature.
Markets slip across the board. Asian markets down -0.5%. European markets down -0.4%. US markets down 2.5% as Nasdaq excitement about AI and chip stocks comes under review. Nasdaq down 4.7%, S&P down 2.6%. Uncle Dow watches on down just -0.3%. Outlook assumes no U.S. recession and Fed ratees steady, yet sticky inflation, oil/geopolitics, rich valuations, and narrow tech-led breadth keep correction and downside risks elevated.
Our Empires of the Cloud fund was down 5% with a big falls in Amazon, Meta and Microsoft. Modest falls in Apple and Google ease the pain but not much. Our dynasties trio was off 2.2%. Markets hammer Baidu down 10%. Alibaba slips almost 3% as Tencent rallies up 6%. AI and cloud narratives support Alibaba and Baidu long term, but near-term moves are dominated by China macro and regulation.
Bull market baseline: Strategists see the U.S. equity bull market extending through 2026, with mid‑ to high‑single‑digit annual gains and earnings growth in the mid‑teens. We are more circumspect. In our forward outlook, we model an 21% draw down in the US, a 15% adjustment in Europe and a 23% realignment in our three primary Asian markets.
2026 targets and returns: Street expects S&P 500 around 7,500–7,650 and Dow near 52,000 by end‑2026, implying roughly 5–10% upside from mid‑April levels; Nasdaq seen outperforming on AI strength.
Monday Morning Markets ... Currencies
Sentiment moved for the Dollar this week. Dollar Index level at 99.79 from 98.63. Sterling at $1.33 against the Dollar from $1.35 and at €1.16 against the Euro from €1.15. The Euro soft against the Dollar at $1.15 from $1.16.
Bigger role for the Euro?
"As the US dollar weakens amid geopolitical upheaval, Euro-area finance ministers are pushing to expand the role of the single currency. They met in Brussels February and on their agenda was promotion of the currency’s issuance and use in transactions. Given the global context, it’s become “existential for us to safeguard the international role of the euro as it is quite pertinent for the EU’s monetary sovereignty,” said Greek Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis, who chaired the meeting."
BCA Analysis April 2026
"The dollar is not losing its role, but it is losing its exclusivity, supporting a structural bid for reserve assets that replicate its functions."
The decline of the US dollar has been a major theme for several years and has accelerated since Liberation Day. But no single currency can replace the dollar. The more relevant question is thus which portfolio of assets can replicate the functions the dollar has long bundled together. In practice, a synthetic reserve basket is already being built by the world’s most sophisticated reserve managers.
The attributes that make an asset suitable for reserves (liquidity, safety, inflation protection, commodity hedge, rule of law, transaction utility, and increasingly geopolitical alignment) are separable and available in different concentrations across assets and currencies. As in Swensen’s Endowment Model, what was once bundled in the dollar can now be unbundled and optimized. This does not require abandoning the dollar, but it does imply lower dollar concentration at the margin and a sustained bid for assets that deliver the factors the dollar no longer monopolizes.
Bigger Role for the Chinese yuan (renminbi) The suggestion that the Chinese yuan (renminbi) is positioned to achieve global reserve status came directly from Chinese President Xi Jinping in February 2026, though major U.S. banks like Goldman Sachs have simultaneously issued "high-conviction" reports predicting the currency's significant rise.
CONTEXT: The "five-year" timeline aligns with the 2026–2030 planning cycle. However, while Beijing and some Wall Street analysts are bullish, the yuan currently accounts for only ~2% of global reserves, compared to the U.S. dollar's ~58%. Analysts caution that achieving true reserve status requires China to further relax capital controls, a move Beijing has historically been reluctant to take fully.
China’s yuan may be going global faster than Western data suggests, analysts say.
Mainstream metrics may understate the role of China’s currency in global payments, as a growing share of transactions is now routed through Beijing’s own cross-border payment system and not fully reflected in conventional data sets, analysts say. This could help explain the gap between Beijing’s official narrative – which describes the yuan as the world’s third-largest payment currency – and readings from tracking systems such as the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (Swift).
Sentiment moved for the Dollar this week. Dollar Index level at 99.79 from 98.63. Sterling at $1.33 against the Dollar from $1.35 and at €1.16 against the Euro from €1.15. The Euro soft against the Dollar at $1.15 from $1.16.
Bigger role for the Euro?
"As the US dollar weakens amid geopolitical upheaval, Euro-area finance ministers are pushing to expand the role of the single currency. They met in Brussels February and on their agenda was promotion of the currency’s issuance and use in transactions. Given the global context, it’s become “existential for us to safeguard the international role of the euro as it is quite pertinent for the EU’s monetary sovereignty,” said Greek Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis, who chaired the meeting."
BCA Analysis April 2026
"The dollar is not losing its role, but it is losing its exclusivity, supporting a structural bid for reserve assets that replicate its functions."
The decline of the US dollar has been a major theme for several years and has accelerated since Liberation Day. But no single currency can replace the dollar. The more relevant question is thus which portfolio of assets can replicate the functions the dollar has long bundled together. In practice, a synthetic reserve basket is already being built by the world’s most sophisticated reserve managers.
The attributes that make an asset suitable for reserves (liquidity, safety, inflation protection, commodity hedge, rule of law, transaction utility, and increasingly geopolitical alignment) are separable and available in different concentrations across assets and currencies. As in Swensen’s Endowment Model, what was once bundled in the dollar can now be unbundled and optimized. This does not require abandoning the dollar, but it does imply lower dollar concentration at the margin and a sustained bid for assets that deliver the factors the dollar no longer monopolizes.
Bigger Role for the Chinese yuan (renminbi) The suggestion that the Chinese yuan (renminbi) is positioned to achieve global reserve status came directly from Chinese President Xi Jinping in February 2026, though major U.S. banks like Goldman Sachs have simultaneously issued "high-conviction" reports predicting the currency's significant rise.
- Primary Source: In early February 2026, President Xi Jinping published an article in Qiushi (the CCP’s flagship journal) explicitly calling for the renminbi to attain "global reserve currency status" as part of China's goal to become a "financial powerhouse."
- U.S. Bank Involvement: While Xi set the political goal, Goldman Sachs released a major 2026 FX strategy report labeling the yuan as one of its "highest conviction" ideas, arguing it is undervalued by 25% and poised for a structural rise.
- Economic Context: Morgan Stanley’s 2026 "Big Picture" report noted that the yuan has already entered the top three global trade finance currencies, with over 30% of China's trade now settled in RMB.
- Implementation: The push is tied to China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), which prioritizes "current account liberalization" to boost global demand for the currency.
CONTEXT: The "five-year" timeline aligns with the 2026–2030 planning cycle. However, while Beijing and some Wall Street analysts are bullish, the yuan currently accounts for only ~2% of global reserves, compared to the U.S. dollar's ~58%. Analysts caution that achieving true reserve status requires China to further relax capital controls, a move Beijing has historically been reluctant to take fully.
China’s yuan may be going global faster than Western data suggests, analysts say.
Mainstream metrics may understate the role of China’s currency in global payments, as a growing share of transactions is now routed through Beijing’s own cross-border payment system and not fully reflected in conventional data sets, analysts say. This could help explain the gap between Beijing’s official narrative – which describes the yuan as the world’s third-largest payment currency – and readings from tracking systems such as the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (Swift).
Monday Morning Markets ... UK Yield Curve ...
UK ten year gilts were at 4.89 from 4.81. Twenty year gilts trade at 5.52 from 5.44. Thirty year gilts trade at 5.58 from 5.51. The potential run down (capital gain to a five year maturity) is 26% for thirties, 24% for twenties, 19% for fifteens and 10% for tens. Long bonds remain over sold. Fill your boots, lock up the yield and lock up the capital gain to come ...
UK ten year gilts were at 4.89 from 4.81. Twenty year gilts trade at 5.52 from 5.44. Thirty year gilts trade at 5.58 from 5.51. The potential run down (capital gain to a five year maturity) is 26% for thirties, 24% for twenties, 19% for fifteens and 10% for tens. Long bonds remain over sold. Fill your boots, lock up the yield and lock up the capital gain to come ...
Monday Morning Markets ... Bond Yields ...
US Ten year yields were at 4.53 from 4.44. UK ten year gilts were at 4.89 from 4.81 Japanese yields down at 2.64 from 2.65. UK ten years remain oversold, still marking a great yield lock in with capital gain to follow.
In the UK, prior to the Great Financial Crash [2000 - 2008] the average inflation rate was 2.0%, the average UK bank rate was 4.50%. Ten year gilt yields averaged 4.50%. Thirty year gilts averaged 4.60%. The average GDP growth rate was 2.5%. The average unemployment rate was 5.0%. Earnings averaged 3.9%.
Then came life on Planet ZIRP financial markets base rates and bond rates were distorted. Back to reality with bonds and gilts oversold for the moment.
US Ten year yields were at 4.53 from 4.44. UK ten year gilts were at 4.89 from 4.81 Japanese yields down at 2.64 from 2.65. UK ten years remain oversold, still marking a great yield lock in with capital gain to follow.
In the UK, prior to the Great Financial Crash [2000 - 2008] the average inflation rate was 2.0%, the average UK bank rate was 4.50%. Ten year gilt yields averaged 4.50%. Thirty year gilts averaged 4.60%. The average GDP growth rate was 2.5%. The average unemployment rate was 5.0%. Earnings averaged 3.9%.
Then came life on Planet ZIRP financial markets base rates and bond rates were distorted. Back to reality with bonds and gilts oversold for the moment.
Monday Morning Markets ... Oil Prices Brent Crude ...
Oil prices Brent Crude basis marked at $90.54 from $91.12 Saturday. Brent Crude steady down 0.6%, as news of extended ceasefire and hopes for opening the Strait of Hormuz emerge and disappear.
We expect Brent Crude to average over $100 dollars in the second quarter before easing back to $80 dollars by the end of the year assuming an easing of the constraint in the Strait of Hormuz.
Prior to conflict, Brent crude was projected to trade between $65 and $75 a barrel in 2026. Check out the latest outlook from the EIA short term outlook ...
Oil Supplement : EIA Short term outlook
May Crude oil price forecast. The Brent crude oil spot price increased sharply in April, reaching a high of $138 per barrel (b) on April 7 and averaging $117/b for the month, as the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz tightened global oil supplies. We expect global oil inventories will fall by an average of 8.5 million b/d in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), keeping Brent prices around $106/b in May and June. As oil production in the Middle East rises, we expect crude oil prices to fall, dropping to an average of $89/b in 4Q26 and $79/b in 2027.
April Crude oil price forecast. The Brent crude oil spot price averaged $103 per barrel (b) in March, and we expect it to peak in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26) at $115/b before easing as production shut-ins slowly abate. We maintain a risk premium on crude oil prices throughout the forecast period as we expect uncertainty around future supply disruptions to keep prices above pre-conflict levels. We forecast the Brent crude oil price will fall below $90/b in 4Q26 and average $76/b in 2027. This price forecast is highly dependent on our assumptions of both the duration of conflict in the Middle East and resulting outages in oil production.
March Crude oil price forecast. We forecast the Brent crude oil price will remain above $95/b over the next two months, before falling below $80/b in the third quarter of 2026 and around $70/b by the end of the year. We expect prices to average $64/b in 2027. This price forecast is highly dependent on our modeled assumptions of both the duration of conflict in the Middle East and resulting outages in oil production.
Julius Baer Sort Term Scenarios Probabilities March
Swift and Intense Probability: 70%
Energy price spike within April, topping within or just above the witnessed highs, easing before summer. Supply disruptions begin to ease within April. Minor lasting economic damage, regionally pronounced in Asia, and a hawkish tilt by central banks.
Enduring and Chaotic Probability: 25% |
Energy prices spike beyond the witnessed highs, easing slowly later this year. Lasting economic impact globally, hawkish central banks, and more pronounced risk-off trade on financial markets.
Oil Crisis Probability: 5%
To trigger a recession and a reset on financial markets, oil prices would need to spike beyond $175 for several months.
Oil prices Brent Crude basis marked at $90.54 from $91.12 Saturday. Brent Crude steady down 0.6%, as news of extended ceasefire and hopes for opening the Strait of Hormuz emerge and disappear.
We expect Brent Crude to average over $100 dollars in the second quarter before easing back to $80 dollars by the end of the year assuming an easing of the constraint in the Strait of Hormuz.
Prior to conflict, Brent crude was projected to trade between $65 and $75 a barrel in 2026. Check out the latest outlook from the EIA short term outlook ...
Oil Supplement : EIA Short term outlook
May Crude oil price forecast. The Brent crude oil spot price increased sharply in April, reaching a high of $138 per barrel (b) on April 7 and averaging $117/b for the month, as the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz tightened global oil supplies. We expect global oil inventories will fall by an average of 8.5 million b/d in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), keeping Brent prices around $106/b in May and June. As oil production in the Middle East rises, we expect crude oil prices to fall, dropping to an average of $89/b in 4Q26 and $79/b in 2027.
April Crude oil price forecast. The Brent crude oil spot price averaged $103 per barrel (b) in March, and we expect it to peak in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26) at $115/b before easing as production shut-ins slowly abate. We maintain a risk premium on crude oil prices throughout the forecast period as we expect uncertainty around future supply disruptions to keep prices above pre-conflict levels. We forecast the Brent crude oil price will fall below $90/b in 4Q26 and average $76/b in 2027. This price forecast is highly dependent on our assumptions of both the duration of conflict in the Middle East and resulting outages in oil production.
March Crude oil price forecast. We forecast the Brent crude oil price will remain above $95/b over the next two months, before falling below $80/b in the third quarter of 2026 and around $70/b by the end of the year. We expect prices to average $64/b in 2027. This price forecast is highly dependent on our modeled assumptions of both the duration of conflict in the Middle East and resulting outages in oil production.
Julius Baer Sort Term Scenarios Probabilities March
Swift and Intense Probability: 70%
Energy price spike within April, topping within or just above the witnessed highs, easing before summer. Supply disruptions begin to ease within April. Minor lasting economic damage, regionally pronounced in Asia, and a hawkish tilt by central banks.
Enduring and Chaotic Probability: 25% |
Energy prices spike beyond the witnessed highs, easing slowly later this year. Lasting economic impact globally, hawkish central banks, and more pronounced risk-off trade on financial markets.
Oil Crisis Probability: 5%
To trigger a recession and a reset on financial markets, oil prices would need to spike beyond $175 for several months.
Monday Morning Markets ... Bitcoin ...
We mark Bitcoin at $60,298 from $73,534. Bitcoin down 18% this week. Bitcoin pushed early May without much weight. The declines began after Crypto stock Strategy, founded by Michael Saylor, sold a small amount of its bitcoin holding. This weighed on sentiment and forced hundreds of millions of dollars in liquidations that accelerated the downside pressure. Losses were exacerbated after a stronger-than-expected May jobs report Friday sent Treasury yields higher and pressured risk assets.
We said some weeks ago, the technical trend rate is emerging of head and shoulders with a $60,000 to 80,000 trading pattern. Continued risk-off sentiment in crypto markets could see a drop to $60,000, we said. The level may now offer support with a $60,000 to $70,000 short term range. Continue to expect a hold at $60,000 with $40,000 the next support level. Should be lots of action around the $60,000 level first.
Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone warns Bitcoin could crash to $10,000, calling the rally a “collapsing bubble” amid capital flight to safer assets. [Feb 17th].
We mark Bitcoin at $60,298 from $73,534. Bitcoin down 18% this week. Bitcoin pushed early May without much weight. The declines began after Crypto stock Strategy, founded by Michael Saylor, sold a small amount of its bitcoin holding. This weighed on sentiment and forced hundreds of millions of dollars in liquidations that accelerated the downside pressure. Losses were exacerbated after a stronger-than-expected May jobs report Friday sent Treasury yields higher and pressured risk assets.
We said some weeks ago, the technical trend rate is emerging of head and shoulders with a $60,000 to 80,000 trading pattern. Continued risk-off sentiment in crypto markets could see a drop to $60,000, we said. The level may now offer support with a $60,000 to $70,000 short term range. Continue to expect a hold at $60,000 with $40,000 the next support level. Should be lots of action around the $60,000 level first.
Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone warns Bitcoin could crash to $10,000, calling the rally a “collapsing bubble” amid capital flight to safer assets. [Feb 17th].
Monday Morning Markets ... Gold $...
We mark Gold at $4,330 from $4,541 last week down 4.7% in the week. Failing to recover the $5,000 dollar level. Gold was trading at $5,500 following Epic Fury strikes on Iran. Gold pulls back: Spot gold dropped about 4.7% , as profit‑taking combines with pressure from higher real yields and a firmer U.S. dollar narrative.
Prior to the strikes, "The outlook for gold prices in 2026 was predominantly bullish, with most analysts and financial institutions holding significant increases. Goldman's calling $5,400. J.P. Morgan predicts prices will reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, while Deutsche Bank is standing by a $6,000 year-end target, per their recent notes.
Here's what the World Gold Council has to say: "An environment characterized by elevated geopolitical tensions, shifting market correlations, and persistent currency risks underscores the importance of building resilient portfolios. Gold’s performance across market cycles, its diversification attributes and its ability to provide protection during periods of financial stress reinforce its strategic, long-term relevance within portfolios." © 2026 World Gold Council.
The over extension against trend evident from our chart. $4,000 the next call. A pull back to $2,500 would not be a huge shock. Central bank buying offers support but traders are leading the charge.
Warren Buffett’s case against the metal argues gold’s intrinsic value is no more than the cost of producing it, which in 2024 was somewhere around $1,500 an ounce across the bulk of the major miners. The all-in sustained cost (AISC) of production can therefore be seen as a potential floor for gold.
We mark Gold at $4,330 from $4,541 last week down 4.7% in the week. Failing to recover the $5,000 dollar level. Gold was trading at $5,500 following Epic Fury strikes on Iran. Gold pulls back: Spot gold dropped about 4.7% , as profit‑taking combines with pressure from higher real yields and a firmer U.S. dollar narrative.
Prior to the strikes, "The outlook for gold prices in 2026 was predominantly bullish, with most analysts and financial institutions holding significant increases. Goldman's calling $5,400. J.P. Morgan predicts prices will reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, while Deutsche Bank is standing by a $6,000 year-end target, per their recent notes.
Here's what the World Gold Council has to say: "An environment characterized by elevated geopolitical tensions, shifting market correlations, and persistent currency risks underscores the importance of building resilient portfolios. Gold’s performance across market cycles, its diversification attributes and its ability to provide protection during periods of financial stress reinforce its strategic, long-term relevance within portfolios." © 2026 World Gold Council.
The over extension against trend evident from our chart. $4,000 the next call. A pull back to $2,500 would not be a huge shock. Central bank buying offers support but traders are leading the charge.
Warren Buffett’s case against the metal argues gold’s intrinsic value is no more than the cost of producing it, which in 2024 was somewhere around $1,500 an ounce across the bulk of the major miners. The all-in sustained cost (AISC) of production can therefore be seen as a potential floor for gold.
That's all for this week ... "to understand the markets you have to understand the economics" and we do ...
© 2026 John Ashcroft, Economics, Strategy and Financial Markets, now with World View and AI, even more experience worth sharing.
The material is based upon information which we consider to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or omissions of opinion or fact. In particular, no reliance should be placed on the comments on trends in financial markets. The receipt of this communication should not be construed as the giving of advice relating to finance or investment.
© 2026 John Ashcroft, Economics, Strategy and Financial Markets, now with World View and AI, even more experience worth sharing.
The material is based upon information which we consider to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or omissions of opinion or fact. In particular, no reliance should be placed on the comments on trends in financial markets. The receipt of this communication should not be construed as the giving of advice relating to finance or investment.
