Monday Morning Markets ...
This is our Monday Morning Markets Update. Every week we update our analysis of equities, bond yields, exchange rates, commodity prices and crypto. Prices marked Saturday 5th April 2025.
Oil prices down. Brent Crude at $65.58 from $78.83. Bond yields down in the week in the U.S. ten year bond yields trading at 3.99 from 4.25. UK gilts ten year down at 4.45 from 4.70. Japanese yields down at 1.16 from 1.53
Markets crashed this week. US stocks were down by 9%. the NASDAQ down 10%. . European markets were down almost 8%. Asian stocks were down by 4% for a 6.5% loss world wide.
Currencies, largely unchanged this week. Sterling at $1.29 from $1.29 against the Dollar, down at €1.18 against the Euro from €1.19. The Euro the main beneficiary at $1.10 against the dollar from $1.08.
Gold moved lower at $3,054 from $3,072, holding above the $3,000 level. Bitcoin moved lower at $82,705 from $83,825 but trading at $77,500 Monday 7th.
So what does this suggest for equity values? We are in the process of recalibrating par values following market sell offs. Bit ore pain to come before it's time to average in ...
Top line, "Cash no longer Trash, (Jamie Dimon), Bonds are Garbage ( Bill Gross), Equities Are Overvalued (Everyman), Bitcoin is worthless (Jamie Dimon), Most NFTs are junk (John Hargrave)". "Crypto is a ‘hot ball of money’ with very little intrinsic value", says hedge fund Starkiller Capital.
When it comes to understanding market moves, "Any explanation is better than none" (Nietzsche). Be careful out there ... and remember ...
"To understand the markets, you have to understand the economics" ... and we do!
Oil prices down. Brent Crude at $65.58 from $78.83. Bond yields down in the week in the U.S. ten year bond yields trading at 3.99 from 4.25. UK gilts ten year down at 4.45 from 4.70. Japanese yields down at 1.16 from 1.53
Markets crashed this week. US stocks were down by 9%. the NASDAQ down 10%. . European markets were down almost 8%. Asian stocks were down by 4% for a 6.5% loss world wide.
Currencies, largely unchanged this week. Sterling at $1.29 from $1.29 against the Dollar, down at €1.18 against the Euro from €1.19. The Euro the main beneficiary at $1.10 against the dollar from $1.08.
Gold moved lower at $3,054 from $3,072, holding above the $3,000 level. Bitcoin moved lower at $82,705 from $83,825 but trading at $77,500 Monday 7th.
So what does this suggest for equity values? We are in the process of recalibrating par values following market sell offs. Bit ore pain to come before it's time to average in ...
Top line, "Cash no longer Trash, (Jamie Dimon), Bonds are Garbage ( Bill Gross), Equities Are Overvalued (Everyman), Bitcoin is worthless (Jamie Dimon), Most NFTs are junk (John Hargrave)". "Crypto is a ‘hot ball of money’ with very little intrinsic value", says hedge fund Starkiller Capital.
When it comes to understanding market moves, "Any explanation is better than none" (Nietzsche). Be careful out there ... and remember ...
"To understand the markets, you have to understand the economics" ... and we do!
Monday Morning Markets ... Equities ...
We track ten markets in our global equities model. The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ in the U.S.A, the FTSE, CAC and Dax in Europe. In Asia, Nikkei, Hang Seng, Shanghai and BSE feature.
Markets crashed this week. US stocks were down by 9%. the NASDAQ down 10%. . European markets were down almost 8%. Asian stocks were down by 4% for a 6.5% loss world wide.
We track ten markets in our global equities model. The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ in the U.S.A, the FTSE, CAC and Dax in Europe. In Asia, Nikkei, Hang Seng, Shanghai and BSE feature.
Markets crashed this week. US stocks were down by 9%. the NASDAQ down 10%. . European markets were down almost 8%. Asian stocks were down by 4% for a 6.5% loss world wide.
Monday Morning Markets ... Currencies
Currencies largely unmoved this week. Sterling steady at $1.29 from $1.29 against the Dollar, and at €1.18 from €1.19 against the Euro. The Euro at $1.10 against the dollar from $1.08. The Euro the main beneficiary from this week's moves.
Currencies largely unmoved this week. Sterling steady at $1.29 from $1.29 against the Dollar, and at €1.18 from €1.19 against the Euro. The Euro at $1.10 against the dollar from $1.08. The Euro the main beneficiary from this week's moves.
Monday Morning Markets ... Bond Yields ...
US Ten year Treasury yields were at 3.99 from 4.25. UK ten year gilts were down at 4.45 from 4.70. Japanese yields down 37 points at 1.16 from 1.53. a move into bonds away from equities pushed yields lower. Markets expect more rate cuts this yeear ass fears of recession rise.
We expect(ed) U.S. and U.K. ten year yields to average between 4.25 - 4.50 in 2025 but Liberation Day continues to over shadow the norms.
In the UK, prior to the Great Financial Crash [2000 - 2008] the average inflation rate was 2.0%, the average UK bank rate was 4.50%. Ten year gilt yields averaged 4.50%. Thirty year gilts averaged 4.60%. The average growth rate was 2.5%. The average unemployment rate was 5.0%. Earnings averaged 3.9%.
US Ten year Treasury yields were at 3.99 from 4.25. UK ten year gilts were down at 4.45 from 4.70. Japanese yields down 37 points at 1.16 from 1.53. a move into bonds away from equities pushed yields lower. Markets expect more rate cuts this yeear ass fears of recession rise.
We expect(ed) U.S. and U.K. ten year yields to average between 4.25 - 4.50 in 2025 but Liberation Day continues to over shadow the norms.
In the UK, prior to the Great Financial Crash [2000 - 2008] the average inflation rate was 2.0%, the average UK bank rate was 4.50%. Ten year gilt yields averaged 4.50%. Thirty year gilts averaged 4.60%. The average growth rate was 2.5%. The average unemployment rate was 5.0%. Earnings averaged 3.9%.
Monday Morning Markets ... Oil Prices Brent Crude ...
Oil prices Brent Crude basis moved to $65.58 from $73.63 last week. Brent crude is projected to trade between $70 and $80 a barrel in 2025, we mark at $75 with upside risks tied to US sanctions on Iran. Short term disturbance is pushing prices lower as fears of recession rise and OPEC boosts output to cover revenue loss.
Market forecasts for Brent Crude Oil in 2025 indicate a generally bearish outlook, with prices expected to remain relatively constrained due to oversupply and weak demand. Here's a summary of the key forecasts:
Reuters survey: Brent crude is projected to average $74.33 per barrel in 2025
EIA forecast: The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to be $74 per barrel for the year, falling to $64 in 2026.
J.P. Morgan : Brent crude will average $73 per barrel in 2025, closing the year below $70
Goldman Sachs forecast: Average oil prices at $76 per barrel in 2025.
Despite OPEC+'s efforts to shore up the oil market, the overall sentiment suggests oversupply and tepid demand growth will likely keep Brent crude prices relatively subdued in 2025. However, geopolitical events and economic policy shifts could introduce volatility to these forecasts.
Oil prices Brent Crude basis moved to $65.58 from $73.63 last week. Brent crude is projected to trade between $70 and $80 a barrel in 2025, we mark at $75 with upside risks tied to US sanctions on Iran. Short term disturbance is pushing prices lower as fears of recession rise and OPEC boosts output to cover revenue loss.
Market forecasts for Brent Crude Oil in 2025 indicate a generally bearish outlook, with prices expected to remain relatively constrained due to oversupply and weak demand. Here's a summary of the key forecasts:
Reuters survey: Brent crude is projected to average $74.33 per barrel in 2025
EIA forecast: The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to be $74 per barrel for the year, falling to $64 in 2026.
J.P. Morgan : Brent crude will average $73 per barrel in 2025, closing the year below $70
Goldman Sachs forecast: Average oil prices at $76 per barrel in 2025.
Despite OPEC+'s efforts to shore up the oil market, the overall sentiment suggests oversupply and tepid demand growth will likely keep Brent crude prices relatively subdued in 2025. However, geopolitical events and economic policy shifts could introduce volatility to these forecasts.
Monday Morning Markets ... Bitcoin ...
We mark Bitcoin at $82,705 from $83,825 last week. The Trump administration promises a new era for Bitcoin and crypto.
Analysts forecasts for 2025 range from $70,000 to over $200,000. Multiple analysts project Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
For the moment $100,000 is a firm cap ... the announcement of the U.S. crypto reserve had a mixed response, with prices moving lower that week. The reality of the new reserve fund, as announced at Trump's crypto conference, led prices even lower on release. The Liberation Day sell off has Bitcoin at $77,500 on Monday.
We mark Bitcoin at $82,705 from $83,825 last week. The Trump administration promises a new era for Bitcoin and crypto.
Analysts forecasts for 2025 range from $70,000 to over $200,000. Multiple analysts project Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
For the moment $100,000 is a firm cap ... the announcement of the U.S. crypto reserve had a mixed response, with prices moving lower that week. The reality of the new reserve fund, as announced at Trump's crypto conference, led prices even lower on release. The Liberation Day sell off has Bitcoin at $77,500 on Monday.
Monday Morning Markets ... Gold $...
We mark Gold at $3,054.50 from $3,071.60 last week. The hold above $3,000 significant. The outlook for gold prices in 2025 is predominantly bullish, with most analysts and financial institutions projecting significant increases. Gold broke above long-term resistance at $2,075 in 2024. The over extension against trend evident from our basic chart. Gold is trading at $3,125 Monday 7th.
We mark Gold at $3,054.50 from $3,071.60 last week. The hold above $3,000 significant. The outlook for gold prices in 2025 is predominantly bullish, with most analysts and financial institutions projecting significant increases. Gold broke above long-term resistance at $2,075 in 2024. The over extension against trend evident from our basic chart. Gold is trading at $3,125 Monday 7th.
That's all for this week ... "to understand the markets you have to understand the economics" and we do ...
© 2025 John Ashcroft, Economics, Strategy and Financial Markets, experience worth sharing.
The material is based upon information which we consider to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or omissions of opinion or fact. In particular, no reliance should be placed on the comments on trends in financial markets. The receipt of this email should not be construed as the giving of advice relating to finance or investment.
© 2025 John Ashcroft, Economics, Strategy and Financial Markets, experience worth sharing.
The material is based upon information which we consider to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or omissions of opinion or fact. In particular, no reliance should be placed on the comments on trends in financial markets. The receipt of this email should not be construed as the giving of advice relating to finance or investment.
