Monday Morning Markets ...
This is our Monday Morning Markets Update. Every week we update our analysis of equities, bond yields, exchange rates, commodity prices and crypto. Prices marked Saturday 29th November 2025.
Perplexity Perspectives ...
Market Outlook ...
Dow seen ending 2025 around 46,000–48,000 with limited upside from current levels, S&P 500 targeting ~7,000–7,100, while Nasdaq has scope for gains but higher correction risk.
Top line ...
A record number of fund managers see stocks as overvalued, but the majority remain bullish, according to the Bank of America global fund manager survey. Index targets for 2025: Analyst forecasts project Dow at 47,000–48,000+, S&P 500 at 6,500–6,550, and Nasdaq 100 at 24,000+ if momentum persists.
"Cash no longer Trash, (Jamie Dimon), Bonds are Garbage ( Bill Gross), Equities Are Overvalued (Everyman), Bitcoin is worthless (Jamie Dimon), Most NFTs are junk (John Hargrave)". "Crypto is a ‘hot ball of money’ with very little intrinsic value", says hedge fund Starkiller Capital.
When it comes to understanding market moves, "Any explanation is better than none" (Nietzsche). Be careful out there ... and remember ... "To understand the markets, you have to understand the economics" ... and we do!
Perplexity Perspectives ...
Market Outlook ...
Dow seen ending 2025 around 46,000–48,000 with limited upside from current levels, S&P 500 targeting ~7,000–7,100, while Nasdaq has scope for gains but higher correction risk.
Top line ...
A record number of fund managers see stocks as overvalued, but the majority remain bullish, according to the Bank of America global fund manager survey. Index targets for 2025: Analyst forecasts project Dow at 47,000–48,000+, S&P 500 at 6,500–6,550, and Nasdaq 100 at 24,000+ if momentum persists.
"Cash no longer Trash, (Jamie Dimon), Bonds are Garbage ( Bill Gross), Equities Are Overvalued (Everyman), Bitcoin is worthless (Jamie Dimon), Most NFTs are junk (John Hargrave)". "Crypto is a ‘hot ball of money’ with very little intrinsic value", says hedge fund Starkiller Capital.
When it comes to understanding market moves, "Any explanation is better than none" (Nietzsche). Be careful out there ... and remember ... "To understand the markets, you have to understand the economics" ... and we do!
Monday Morning Markets ... Equities ...
We track ten markets in our global equities model. The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ in the U.S.A, the FTSE, CAC and Dax in Europe. In Asia, Nikkei, Hang Seng, Shanghai and BSE feature.
Global markets positive this week. US stocks up almost 4% with strong Nasdaq bounce as AI and tech stocks rebound. Europe posts solid gains: FTSE, DAX, and CAC rose roughly 1.8–3.2%, supported by subdued inflation, clearer fiscal paths, and a generally risk-on tone despite softer German data.
Asia advances broadly: Nikkei, Hang Seng, and Shanghai added about 1.4–3.3%, lifted by AI and tech enthusiasm and expectations of gradual policy normalization in Japan despite weak Chinese macro data.
A positive week overall with a 2.7% gain
We track ten markets in our global equities model. The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ in the U.S.A, the FTSE, CAC and Dax in Europe. In Asia, Nikkei, Hang Seng, Shanghai and BSE feature.
Global markets positive this week. US stocks up almost 4% with strong Nasdaq bounce as AI and tech stocks rebound. Europe posts solid gains: FTSE, DAX, and CAC rose roughly 1.8–3.2%, supported by subdued inflation, clearer fiscal paths, and a generally risk-on tone despite softer German data.
Asia advances broadly: Nikkei, Hang Seng, and Shanghai added about 1.4–3.3%, lifted by AI and tech enthusiasm and expectations of gradual policy normalization in Japan despite weak Chinese macro data.
A positive week overall with a 2.7% gain
Monday Morning Markets ... Currencies
Sterling vs dollar: GBP/USD climbed about 1% from ~1.31 to 1.32–1.33, with tight 1.309–1.326 ranges, helped by a softer dollar and steady UK rate expectations.
Sterling vs euro: GBP/EUR drifted higher within a 1.134–1.143 band, leaving sterling marginally firmer than the euro, with cross moves smaller than on cable.
Euro vs dollar: EUR/USD rose from ~1.151 to ~1.16 (0.6–0.8%), trading in a narrow range near recent highs as gradual dollar softness, not policy shifts, drove the move.
Sterling vs dollar: GBP/USD climbed about 1% from ~1.31 to 1.32–1.33, with tight 1.309–1.326 ranges, helped by a softer dollar and steady UK rate expectations.
Sterling vs euro: GBP/EUR drifted higher within a 1.134–1.143 band, leaving sterling marginally firmer than the euro, with cross moves smaller than on cable.
Euro vs dollar: EUR/USD rose from ~1.151 to ~1.16 (0.6–0.8%), trading in a narrow range near recent highs as gradual dollar softness, not policy shifts, drove the move.
Monday Morning Markets ... Bond Yields ...
US Ten year yields were at 4.01 from 4.06. UK ten year gilts were down ten points at 4.44 from 4.54. Japanese yields up 3 points at 1.80 from 1.77.
UK 10-year gilts ended the week at 4.44% as markets reacted well to the budget outlook. US 10-years settled at 4.01%, also easing as markets expect a rate cut in December.
The UK 10-year yield remains about 40 to 50 basis points above the US, reflecting heightened UK fiscal and inflation concerns versus US policy restraint and lower year-over-year yields. UK gilt volatility is linked to fiscal policy uncertainty and budget unease, while US Treasury moves hinge on Federal Reserve rate path signals, with more now anticipating a rate cut in December.
In the UK, prior to the Great Financial Crash [2000 - 2008] the average inflation rate was 2.0%, the average UK bank rate was 4.50%. Ten year gilt yields averaged 4.50%. Thirty year gilts averaged 4.60%. The average growth rate was 2.5%. The average unemployment rate was 5.0%. Earnings averaged 3.9%.
US Ten year yields were at 4.01 from 4.06. UK ten year gilts were down ten points at 4.44 from 4.54. Japanese yields up 3 points at 1.80 from 1.77.
UK 10-year gilts ended the week at 4.44% as markets reacted well to the budget outlook. US 10-years settled at 4.01%, also easing as markets expect a rate cut in December.
The UK 10-year yield remains about 40 to 50 basis points above the US, reflecting heightened UK fiscal and inflation concerns versus US policy restraint and lower year-over-year yields. UK gilt volatility is linked to fiscal policy uncertainty and budget unease, while US Treasury moves hinge on Federal Reserve rate path signals, with more now anticipating a rate cut in December.
In the UK, prior to the Great Financial Crash [2000 - 2008] the average inflation rate was 2.0%, the average UK bank rate was 4.50%. Ten year gilt yields averaged 4.50%. Thirty year gilts averaged 4.60%. The average growth rate was 2.5%. The average unemployment rate was 5.0%. Earnings averaged 3.9%.
Monday Morning Markets ... Oil Prices Brent Crude ...
Oil prices Brent Crude basis moved to $63.19 from $62.56 last week. Brent Crude up 1.0% on the week, ample supply and softer demand remain a feature.
Brent crude is projected to trade between $70 and $80 a barrel in 2026, we mark at $68.96 in Q3 and $65 in Q4. The EIA outlook is considerably bearish on the price outlook for 2026.
Oil Supplement : EIA Short term outlook November
Global oil prices. [We] expect global oil inventories to continue to rise through 2026, putting downward pressure on oil prices in the coming months. We forecast the Brent crude oil price will fall to an average of $54 per barrel (b) in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26) and average $55/b for all of next year. Although we continue to expect crude oil prices to fall in the coming months, our Brent forecast for 2026 is $3/b higher than in last month’s outlook, largely as a result of updated assumptions about inventory builds in China and sanctions on Russia.
Oil prices Brent Crude basis moved to $63.19 from $62.56 last week. Brent Crude up 1.0% on the week, ample supply and softer demand remain a feature.
Brent crude is projected to trade between $70 and $80 a barrel in 2026, we mark at $68.96 in Q3 and $65 in Q4. The EIA outlook is considerably bearish on the price outlook for 2026.
Oil Supplement : EIA Short term outlook November
Global oil prices. [We] expect global oil inventories to continue to rise through 2026, putting downward pressure on oil prices in the coming months. We forecast the Brent crude oil price will fall to an average of $54 per barrel (b) in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26) and average $55/b for all of next year. Although we continue to expect crude oil prices to fall in the coming months, our Brent forecast for 2026 is $3/b higher than in last month’s outlook, largely as a result of updated assumptions about inventory builds in China and sanctions on Russia.
Monday Morning Markets ... Bitcoin ...
We mark Bitcoin at $90,606 from $85,154 Bitcoin up almost 8% this week, rebounding from a sharp pullback off earlier November highs above $100,000, with choppy intra day trade.
The technical trend rate is emerging of head and shoulders with a $80,000 downside. Continued risk-off sentiment in cryptocurrency markets could see a drop to $70,000.
$100,000 no longer offers support, the level may offer resistance with a $70,00 - $80,000 short term floor. Expect a pull back.
We mark Bitcoin at $90,606 from $85,154 Bitcoin up almost 8% this week, rebounding from a sharp pullback off earlier November highs above $100,000, with choppy intra day trade.
The technical trend rate is emerging of head and shoulders with a $80,000 downside. Continued risk-off sentiment in cryptocurrency markets could see a drop to $70,000.
$100,000 no longer offers support, the level may offer resistance with a $70,00 - $80,000 short term floor. Expect a pull back.
Monday Morning Markets ... Gold $...
We mark Gold at $4,220 from $4,067 last week. Up almost 4% in the week, the strong rally in the month offsetting fears of decline.
The outlook for gold prices in 2025 remains predominantly bullish, with most analysts and financial institutions projecting significant increases. $5,000 the favored target. The over extension against trend evident from our chart. A pull back to $2,000 would not be a huge shock. Central bank buying offers huge support.
Warren Buffett’s case against the metal argues gold’s intrinsic value is no more than the cost of producing it, which in 2024 was somewhere around $1,500 an ounce across the bulk of the major miners. The all-in sustained cost (AISC) of production can therefore be seen as a potential floor for gold.
We mark Gold at $4,220 from $4,067 last week. Up almost 4% in the week, the strong rally in the month offsetting fears of decline.
The outlook for gold prices in 2025 remains predominantly bullish, with most analysts and financial institutions projecting significant increases. $5,000 the favored target. The over extension against trend evident from our chart. A pull back to $2,000 would not be a huge shock. Central bank buying offers huge support.
Warren Buffett’s case against the metal argues gold’s intrinsic value is no more than the cost of producing it, which in 2024 was somewhere around $1,500 an ounce across the bulk of the major miners. The all-in sustained cost (AISC) of production can therefore be seen as a potential floor for gold.
That's all for this week ... "to understand the markets you have to understand the economics" and we do ...
© 2025 John Ashcroft, Economics, Strategy and Financial Markets, experience worth sharing.
The material is based upon information which we consider to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or omissions of opinion or fact. In particular, no reliance should be placed on the comments on trends in financial markets. The receipt of this communicaion should not be construed as the giving of advice relating to finance or investment.
© 2025 John Ashcroft, Economics, Strategy and Financial Markets, experience worth sharing.
The material is based upon information which we consider to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or omissions of opinion or fact. In particular, no reliance should be placed on the comments on trends in financial markets. The receipt of this communicaion should not be construed as the giving of advice relating to finance or investment.
