Starmer's About to Inherit An Economic Boom ... Or Is He?
The Labour leader is beginning his premiership, with the best economic backdrop in years, according to Szu Ping Chan, writing in The Telegraph on Thursday. The article appeared following the release, by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), of the GDP monthly estimate, UK for May 2024. The U.K economy grew at double the pace predicted by economists in the month, in a boost for Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves. The economy expanded by 0.4pc on a month on month basis. This is the fastest pace in more than two years and double the 0.2pc expected by analysts, according to the Office for National Statistics. Better still, compared to previous year, (our favourite measure), the economy grew by 1.4%. The strong performance prompted economists at Goldman Sachs to upgrade their own growth forecasts. James Moberly, economist at Goldman, said: "We raise our annual GDP growth forecast for 2024 to 1.2pc. This is above consensus of 0.7pc and the Bank's forecast of 0.4pc." Barclays and Deutsche Bank also raised forecasts to 1.1% and 1.2% for growth this year, following the latest data. At The Saturday Economist, we are flagging a change in our expectations for the year. Assuming no growth month on month for the rest of the year, growth in 2024 will be around 1.2%, (last year's performance was so bad). We await a further month's data for June and the second quarter of 2024 to confirm the call. Forecasts for the year could be revised even higher if the growth spurt continues. Grant Fitzner, the ONS's chief economist, described the expansion as "buoyant", (but not gangbusters) adding other indicators of the economy suggested the recovery was gaining traction. Britain's services sector was the largest contributor to growth, with the sector expanding by 1.6 per cent year on year. Transport and distribution was up by over 7 per cent, professional services sector was up by over 4 per cent. Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS, said: "Construction grew at its fastest rate in almost a year after recent weakness, with house building and infrastructure projects boosting the industry." Growth in professional services was also a bright spot for the economy both in May and since the start of the year. The ONS said May's growth was driven by a rise in "scientific research and development" as well as technical testing and analysis linked to the engineering sector." Mr Fitzner said: "It continues a reasonably buoyant trend that we've seen through the first half of this year. Some of that is a bounce back from the downturn from last year, but this is continuing into the second quarter." The Pound rallied closing at just under $1.30 on Friday. Markets appear confused by mixed messages from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England for that matter. The TSE chart suggests this is an over extension in the short term, some short positions should be restored at the start of next week. We expect the Sterling rally to fade somewhat. Ten year gilt yields moved down slightly closing at 4.11 from 4.12. Two year gilts closed off five basis points in the week. It may not be a boom, but higher growth will ensure additional monies into the Rachel Reeves coffers, allaying fears of tax hikes, perhaps ...
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It's a Labour Landslide ... with just 34% of the vote ...
John Authers, senior editor for markets at Bloomberg summed it up, "I wouldn't vote for Labour, one of my favorite contacts in the City told me this week, but they aren't going to mess things up." This is the attitude permeating the UK's financial community. The mood for months has been the Conservatives deserved to lose power. It doesn't matter much, if Labour do win. They could hardly do much worse than the Tories Now the voters have spoken, taking the same attitude as the City perhaps. Casting ballots tactically, against the Tories. Labour's share of the vote didn't rise much but ... In the final count, Labour gained 211 seats, leading with 412 seats overall. The Conservatives lost 250 seats, entering the House next week, with just 120 seats. Lib Dems the big gainers with 63 new MPs and 71 seats in the lower chamber. Reform the big no show with just five seats at close of play. It must have been Ed Davey's bungee jumping which tipped the poll for the Lib Dems. Perhaps Nigel Farage, should have been at the end of a bungee rope. Many would have voted for that. In terms of share of votes, Labour scored 34%, Tories 24%, Reform 14% and the Lib Dems 12%. Interesting to note the combined Tory-Reform share was 38%, a four point lead over Labour. Lib Dems lower share of the vote, yielding many more seats that Reform. No wonder Reform advocate a first past the pub system. For the Tories, it was the end of an era. Many big names lost in the battle. Liz Truss, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Penny Mordaunt, Grant Shapps (Defence Secretary), Gillian Keegan, (Education Secretary) and Lucy Frazer (Culture Secretary. Jeremy Hunt clung on to his Surrey seat. The ex Chancellor, MP for South West Surrey since 2005, won the newly created seat of Godalming and Ash by around 1,000 votes after stiff competition from the Liberal Democrat candidate. Will he be the next leader of the Tory Party? Rishi Sunak has announced he will step down, once formal arrangements are in place to elect his successor. Sunak held 48% of the vote in the constituency of Richmond and Northallerton in Northern England. A staunch Tory seat, "they would elect a goat, if it had a blue rosette around its neck", it is said. For the Tories and the electorate, it has all been too much. Since 2016 there have been five prime ministers, seven chancellors, seven foreign secretaries, seven home secretaries, eight industry ministers and nine education secretaries. In 2022 alone, the country experienced three prime ministers, four chancellors of the exchequer, three home secretaries, three health secretaries, three industry ministers and five education secretaries. Since the implosion of the gilts market in 2022, it has been taken as inevitable the Conservatives would lose out in the election. The terrifying episode of rising rates, would ensure Labour would not attempt a big expansion of tax and spending plans in a dash for growth. Labour will take over, accepting the bond market won't let them do anything too expansionary or ambitious. Whatever Labour does next, it will be within the parameters set by the gilts market. That's why the City is so relaxed. So How Did The Markets React ? UK stock markets moved higher following news of Labour's election victory. House builders the biggest winners. Traders bet the new government's proposals to free up the planning system would allow developers to build more homes. Excitement curtailed, the FTSE closed at just under 8,200, down from the peak of 8,269 intra day. Ten year gilt yields closed at 4.13% drifting slightly over the day. Sterling closed up against the Dollar at $1.28 and up against the Euro at 1.08. The limited reaction in currency and bond markets reflected the fact the election result has been a foregone conclusion for a long time now. Starmer and Reeves have made it pretty clear they would play safe for now. The new Prime Minister stated in his speech. "Our work is urgent .. We begin it today". A lot to be done, we wish them well ... But The Bond Vigilantes Are Watching ... The UK economy grew at a faster rate in the first quarter of the year, according to the latest update from the Office of National Statistics. Rishi Sunak hailed the growth figures as the "fastest growth in the G7." Growth is even better than "gangbusters", the excitable claim from Grant Fitzner, chief economist at the ONS, when the first estimate of GDP growth was announced in May. "The next Prime Minister is likely to inherit an improved economy" according to Jane Croft and Larry Elliott in the Guardian.
But will the economic revision be enough to save Sunak? I doubt that. Just four days before polling day, the Tories still trail Labour by 20 points in the polls but more of that later. First let's get the growth revision into perspective. GDP growth rose by 0.3% year on year according to the GDP Quarterly National Accounts released on Friday. The first estimate released on the 10th May, marked growth year on year at 0.2%. An improvement OK but not by much. Headlines react to the ONS statement which leads with growth rate quarter on quarter. At the end of the day, (make that the end of the year), it is the growth rate year on year which counts. Year on year, the performance was mixed. Manufacturing was up by 1.7%. Construction was down by 0.4%. Service sector growth was up by 0.4%. The transport and Storage sector was down 0.8%. Accommodation and Food, was down by over 1%. Don't break out the bunting just yet. Yes, the next prime Minister will inherit an improving economy. Growth could be as high as 0.5% in the second quarter. On track for growth of between 0.5% and 1.0% this year. It may well be Rachel Reeves that is the real winner. But the economy will need to grow at a much faster rate to allay fears over spending and borrowing Will It Save Sunak ... Just four days before polling day, the Tories still trail Labour by almost 20 points. The latest YouGuv survey has Labour on 36%, the Tories on 18%, just ahead of Reform at 17%. The Farage rally has fizzled out. Statements on Putin and Ukraine add the odd hint of racism and right wing extremism in the mix. Not for everyone, the economics of the tap room from a platform of the bar stool. In terms of seats, Labour could pick up over 220 seats in the house, with 425 MPs in the final count. The Conservatives would be left with just 108 seats, leaving Lib Dems with 50 plus and Reform with just five MPS. That's a big win for Starmer and a massive set back for the Tories. A growth rate of 0.3% is not enough to save Sunak ... That's all for now. Have a great weekend break ... Watch out for our update on the US election, the first debate described in the Telegraph, "not so much a debate more a medical emergency". Don't miss that! Lots of economic data to add to the mix this week. Retail sales bounced back in May from a disappointing April. Month on month, sales volumes increased by 2.9% following a fall of 1.8% prior month. Year on year sales were up just 1.3% in volume terms, up 2.2% in value. The ONS warns data may have been affected by the extra bank holiday for the coronation of King Charles III.
If so, the loyal subjects were not drinking much, alcohol sales were down by 11.5%. Flag waving appeared to boost textile sales by 16.5%, footwear sales were up by 15%, cosmetic sales were up 11% and making music was up by 18%. We don't usually comment on the retail sales figures. I fear they are suffering from "Long Covid". Lies, damn lies and statistical adjustments part of the problem. Public Sector Finances ... The last update on Public Sector finances before the general election was released yesterday. Net debt edged up to £2.7 trillion pounds, that's 99.8% of GDP. Borrowing in the merry month of May, was £15 billion pounds. £33.4 billion for the first two months of the year, compared to £33.0 billion in the first two months last year. Borrowing is on track for another £120 billion this financial year, unless fortunes change for the new administration. Inflation Hits Target ... Consumer price inflation, CPI basis, hit the 2% target in May down from 2.3% in April. Goods inflation fell from minus 0.8% to minus 1.3%. Service sector inflation eased from 5.9% to 5.7%.Core inflation (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) increased by 3.5%. CPI inflation was expected to fall to target 2.0% in the second quarter, according to forecasts from the OBR and The Bank of England. The 2% target is not expected to hold. The Bank is concerned about the high level of service sector inflation and the high level of wage settlements. Producer prices appear to have "bottomed out". Our money supply model has also flagged the turn. The inflation arithmetic (goods and services) was 2.2% in the month. Inflation may have touched target in the second quarter. It's more of a "touch and go". Just like an aircraft, touching down on the tarmac and immediately taking off again. The Bank expects CPI inflation to increase and to average 2.5% in the final quarter. Bank Holds Rates ... Despite the headline inflation rate hitting the target, the Bank of England decided to keep interest rates on hold at 5.25%, reflecting ongoing concerns about persistent inflation in the services sector and the broader economy. "Monetary policy will need to remain restrictive for sufficiently long to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term in line with the MPC’s remit. The Committee has judged since last autumn that monetary policy needs to be restrictive for an extended period of time until the risk of inflation becoming embedded above the 2% target dissipates." Analysts are divided on the timing of potential rate cuts, with some expecting reductions as early as August, while others anticipate delays until later in the year. For the moment, our overall forward guidance outlook is changing. We expect a series of two base rate cuts in the current year possibly beginning in August. We model base rates at 4.5% in the final quarter or possibly Q1 2025, but not much more to follow in 2025. But then again, don't bet on it .. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the federal funds rate at its current level of 5.25%-5.5% at the June 2024 meeting. The decision reflects the Federal Reserve's cautious approach as it continues to monitor inflation and economic activity. Despite some signs of easing inflation, the Fed remains vigilant, emphasizing the need for "modest further progress" toward the 2% inflation target before considering significant rate cuts.
Inflation has shown signs of cooling, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May at 3.3% down from 3.4% in April. However, core inflation at 3.4% remains a concern. Producer prices index eased to 2.2% last month, from 2.3% in April. Core prices, excluding food an energy held at 3.2%. The Fed is looking for more evidence of consistent data moving to target, before making any substantial policy changes. The Fed's decision to hold rates steady comes amid a robust economic backdrop, with strong job gains and low unemployment rates. Growth in the first quarter was up 2.9% year on year. Jobs growth in May was "very strong" with an increase of 272,000 jobs. In contrast, the unemployment rate increased to 4.0% in May from 3.9% prior month. Then, new weekly filings for jobless claims, unexpectedly spiked to 242,000 this week, a ten-month high, raising concerns about growth in the rest of the year. No wonder, the central bank remains wary of prematurely easing policy, which could risk reigniting inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials have indicated a preference for a "go-slow" approach to rate cuts, emphasizing the need for more data to ensure inflation is on a sustained downward path. The FOMC's latest 'Blue dot" projections suggest only one rate cut is likely before the end of the year, a reduction from earlier expectations of multiple cuts. While the FOMC has left the door open for potential rate cuts later in the year, the likelihood of significant easing remains low unless there is clear and sustained progress in reducing inflation. The Fed's cautious stance underscores its commitment to achieving long-term price stability before making any substantial policy shifts. Markets now expect just one cut this year, it could be as late as December. We would still consider two cuts a possibility, those blue dots do bounce about ... Next week, it will be the turn of the MPC to make the big rates decision. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to hold interest rates at 5.25% at the upcoming meeting on June 20, 2024.
Will the MPC cut rates? Market expectations, based on overnight index swaps, suggest that August 3 is the more likely date for the first rate cut since 2020, with at least one more cut anticipated by the end of the year. While UK inflation has been falling, it remains a concern. As with the Fed, the Bank is cautious about easing monetary policy too soon, which could lead to a resurgence in inflation expectations. The latest data indicates that inflation CPI basis is expected to fall towards the 2% target but will rise again later in the year. The latest U.K. economic data suggests the economy expanded by 0.6% in April, year on year compared to growth of 0.2% in the first quarter. News headlines report growth was flat but that is month on month. We always use the year on year comparison. The unemployment rate increased to 4.4% from 4.3% in April. The number unemployed increased to 1.51 million, up 24,000. The number in work fell by 30,000. Vacancies fell by just 4,000 to 904,000. Earnings three month basis were steady at 5.9%. The single month data suggest earnings slowed to 5.5%. The housing market is slowing as fixed rate mortgages unwind but real earnings CPI basis increased to 3.6%. It's a mixed picture, which could suggest an economy at a turning point. Perhaps to soon yet to move ahead of the curve. The Bank of England will also consider the broader international economic environment. Recent growth has been stronger in the United States than in the euro area. Inflationary pressures have moderated somewhat but remain a concern. The divergence in monetary policy expectations between the US and Europe, adds complexity to the decision-making process. The upcoming general election on July 4, 2024, is a further factor. The Bank may prefer to wait until after the election to make significant policy changes. A new [Labour] government will change the economic landscape with new tax and spending plans and a few surprises. In summary, while there is some speculation about a potential rate cut in June, the consensus among market participants and analysts is the Bank of England will hold rates at 5.25% next week, with a more probable rate cut occurring in August and one further rate cut possible this year. As always we recommend a model scenario of base rates at 4.5% in the years ahead, no return to Planet ZIRP ... The Tories face an extinction level event according to the latest YouGuv poll. Asked if there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for, the Labour party claimed 40% of the vote compared to the Tories down to just 19%. Worse still the Reform Party, now lead by Nigel Farage polled 17% just two points behind the Conservative party.
Promising to reduce net migration to zero has wide appeal apparently. Reform policies and spending plans would appear to make Liz Truss as cautious as a fiscally prudent lettuce. Stop the Boats. Leave the European Convention on Human Right. Increase personal tax threshold to £20,000, raise the higher rate threshold from £50,270 to £70,000. Abolish inheritance tax, abolish VAT on energy bills. scrap VAT tourist tax,Increase defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 and 3% by 2030. Excise duties on beer under the cosh. The two point gap behind the Tories could be closed over this weekend. John Rental writing in the Independent suggests thatat least one poll is likely to show a “crossover” between Reform and the Tories in the next few days. "A headless chicken panic will strike the Conservatives when that happens." Perhaps that's why the Prime Minister abandoned his D Day landing to return to canvass in the UK. Sunak has since apologised for the misjudgement and mistake. A further example of miscalculation from the Tory leader in the election run up. The Labour party is heading for a two hundred seat majority in the house. 422 seats with the Tories down to just 140 MPs. The LibDems would still be the third largest party in the House of Commons. At the moment, no place in Westminster for Reform. Not even Nigel Farage is first past the post. The European Central Bank (ECB) made a big move this week, cutting interest rates for the first time since 2019. This decision, announced by ECB President Christine Lagarde, marks a pivotal moment in the ECB's monetary policy, reflecting a shift in response to evolving economic conditions in the eurozone.
The ECB reduced its key interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the main refinancing operations rate to 4.25%, the marginal lending facility rate to 4.50%, and the deposit facility rate to 3.75%. This decision was driven by several factors, primarily the need to support economic recovery and address inflation dynamics. The eurozone has experienced a significant reduction in inflation, from a peak of 10.6% in October 2022 to 2.6% in May 2024. This decline in inflation was a result of the ECB's previous aggressive rate hikes, which totaled 450 basis points between July 2022 and September 2023. The hikes were instrumental in curbing inflation but also led to a slowdown in economic growth. The eurozone's economy expanded by only 0.3% in the first quarter of 2024, following contractions in the previous two quarters. The timing of the rate cut is crucial. Lagarde emphasized that the decision was based on a revised assessment of the inflation outlook and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The ECB's projections indicate that while inflation has not yet reached the 2% target, it is on a downward trend expected to continue in the coming months. The average inflation rate is projected to decrease to 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Lagarde stressed that the ECB's future decisions would remain data-dependent and that the central bank is not pre-committing to a specific rate path. This cautious stance reflects the ECB's need to balance the risks of cutting rates too much against those of cutting too little. Rapid and significant rate cuts could boost consumer demand and investment but also risk rekindling inflationary pressures before the 2% target is fully achieved. The ECB's latest projections suggest a slight upward adjustment in economic growth and inflation for 2024, while maintaining the 2% inflation forecast for 2025 unchanged. This indicates that while the ECB is confident in the current disinflationary path, it remains vigilant about potential risks, including geopolitical tensions and energy prices, which could impact inflation dynamics. Market analysts generally agree that the ECB will likely hold rates steady at its next meeting in July, with the possibility of resuming cuts at a slow pace in September. The ECB's cautious approach is reflected in its emphasis on monitoring economic data closely before making further adjustments. This strategy aims to ensure that monetary policy remains appropriately restrictive to guide inflation back to target levels without stifling economic growth. The ECB's decision also positions it ahead of other major central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Both have yet to begin lowering rates. This divergence in monetary policy could have significant financial impacts, particularly on exchange rates, as aggressive rate cuts by the ECB could put downward pressure on the euro against the dollar, potentially raising the price of imports and affecting inflation. For the moment, markets are largely unmoved. The Euro trades at $1.0895 this morning compared to $1.0848 last week. Sterling trades pretty much unchanged. "Proof The Plan Is Working" ...
Mixed news for policy makers in the inflation data this week. Inflation CPI basis eased to 2.3% in April, down from 3.2% in March and well below the peak for this cycle of 11.1% in October 2022. Rishi Sunak said: "Today marks a major moment for the economy, with inflation back to normal. This is proof that the plan is working. The difficult decisions we have taken are paying off." He could have added ... "From here it could get worse, one of the main reasons I made the election call, I'm off". Markets were disappointed. Analysts had expected a drop to 2.1%, closer to the Bank of England target of 2.0%. Disappointed but not unduly troubled. Ten year bond yields increased by 12 basis points, closing at 4.25. Sterling ended the week unchanged at $1.27. Further analysis of inflation data, would only cause "further" disappointment. Goods inflation, fell to -0.8%. The goods figure was flattered by a further fall in energy costs. Ofgem lowered the cap on average annual household energy bills by 12 per cent in the month, leading to a fall in energy costs of minus 27%. Service sector inflation eased to just 5.9% from 6.0% prior month. Insurance, health care, restaurants and hotels prices were particularly high. Treasure that no claims bonus, transport insurance costs were up by 24%. Underlying inflation excluding energy, food and booze, eased to 3.9%. The arithmetic mean CPI number for the month was 2.5%, significantly above the Bank's 2.0% target. Grant Fitzner, chief economist at the ONS, said: "There was another large fall in annual inflation led by lower electricity and gas prices." Read "Prices are falling gangbusters." "Tobacco prices also pull down the rate, with no duty changes announced in the budget. Food price inflation saw further falls over the year." [The rate of food inflation eased to 2.8%.] Manufacturing output prices increased by 1.1% in April, up from an average 0.3% in the first quarter. Manufacturing input costs were lower by -1.6% in April, compared to -2.7% in the first three months of the year. Still no retail price pressure but evidence of a turning point perhaps. Oil prices Brent Crude averaged $89.90 dollars in April this year, compared to $84.60 dollars last year. A plus 6% inflation impact Sterling adjusted. Money Supply M4, for some a leading indicator of inflation, bottomed out in September and October last year, with the latest data in March completing a reverse head and shoulders formation. The pattern suggests prices are set to rise towards the end of this year, in line with the Bank's own expectations. CPI inflation is expected to end the year at around 2.5%. So What of Rates ? The Bank of England will be concerned by the stubborn performance in service sector inflation, sticky earnings data and the moderate drop in underlying inflation. According to The Times, Tomasz Wieladek, chief European economist at T Rowe Price, said: "Although there is some evidence that services inflation is falling gradually, the data today will likely prevent a cut in June." Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said: "It feels as though a cut in June now seems very unlikely. Even a cut in August is looking a bit more doubtful." The IMF this week suggested three rate cuts are possible in the UK this year. As we said last week, June [22nd] may just be a bit too soon. No meeting in July, the next MPC meeting after that, is the 3rd August. Why Call An Election Now ... Many Have Asked ...
The Prime Minister made his announcement outside Number Ten in the rain, as the Labour promise of "Things Can Only Get Better" played in background. "Things can only get wetter" the pun but for Rishi Sunak, from here it could only get worse. Inflation figures will rise before the end of the year, along with the unemployment rate and the numbers out of work. If the April borrowing figures are anything to go by, the OBR forecasts for the current financial year will be widely exceeded. Growth in the first quarter suggested the economy was up by just 0.2% year on year. For the year as a whole the IMF growth upgrade to 0.7% may be something of a challenge. The IMF has warned there is no money for a further cuts in taxes and National Insurance rates. A series of big spending commitments already announced, including an uplift in defence spending, a large compensation package for victims of infected blood and the Post Office scandal, imply there's nothing left for tax cuts in an autumn budget anyway. Despite the IMF suggestion, there could be three interest rate cuts this year, the markets are beginning to think there may be just one. The immigration figures could get better, especially if student numbers for higher education are radically cut. The small boats keep coming. The Rwanda flights are still up in the air but not literally. The latest YouGov polling for The Times shows the Tories over twenty points behind in the polls, with no evidence the position is improving. Labour is on track for a 200 plus majority in the House. Tory MPs have decided in record numbers, enough is enough. The number of Tory MPs standing down at the general election (76) has now surpassed the prior Conservative Party record of 75. A record set in 1997 when Tony Blair won the Labour landslide. There is a question over Sunak's appetite for hanging on. Few can believe he is attempting to pull off a turnaround that would be truly unique in modern political history. July isn't a great month to poll. The last July election in the UK was in 1945. The result then was a significant Labour victory. So what is he up to? Sunak's decision to call a summer election is seen as a bold and risky move, reminiscent of past political gambles. Or is it? Earlier this year he was said to cut an increasingly dejected figure, frustrated that voters were not responding to his carefully orchestrated announcements and plans for the smoking ban and maths for all. While he has been more "chipper' in recent weeks, those close to him have suggested that holding out for longer would become an exercise in endurance and survival. The Post Master General for the Back Bench Committee is thinking of making daily deliveries of letters of no confidence. The Prime Minister has had enough. One look at the Rich List must have pushed him into the decision. The Out of Office option looms. It ain't that bad. Former Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi has just been named as the new chair of The Very Group this month. Dominic Raab has taken on a new role as Senior Strategic Adviser, at private equity firm Appian Capital. For someone else the challenge of NHS waiting lists, stopping the boats and flying to Africa. Sue Gray, Keir Starmer's chief of staff, has drawn up a list of potential crises that could trip up a Labour government. The collapse of Thames Water, overcrowding in prisons, universities going under, failing local councils and an NHS funding shortfall included. Not to mention a difficult public sector pay round. They all feature on a Labour Government risk list. But come to think of it, that's probably on the Tory risk list too ... fourteen more years? No thanks ... |
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