 Axios AM Mike Allen February 13th 2026
Little by little, week after week, a subtle but significant shift is unfolding in American politics: Institutions and even a small but growing number of Republicans are standing up to President Trump, Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen write in a "Behind the Curtain" column. Why it matters: This is hardly COVID, where everyone seemed to resist everything — or even a return to Normal Times, when CEOs and Republicans said something when they saw something alarming. But the law of political gravity is starting to apply to Trump. Simply put, the more unpopular his policies and tactics, the easier it is for even scared Republicans to speak up and institutions to hold their ground. To be clear, the number of House and Senate Republicans willing to cross Trump publicly remains tiny. But everywhere else, resistance is growing. Look how 2026 has started for Trump, and the new pushback he faces, as synthesized by Axios' Zachary Basu: ⚖️ Retribution: A federal grand jury unanimously rejected the Justice Department's attempt to indict six Democratic lawmakers over a video they made urging service members to refuse unlawful orders. It's at least the fifth time that charges against Trump's adversaries or protesters have been turned away by a grand jury. A federal judge also shut down Defense Secretary Hegseth's attempt to punish Navy veteran Sen. Mark Kelly over his role in the video. 🚨 ICE raids: Trump's border czar Tom Homan announced an end to the 10-week ICE surge in Minneapolis yesterday. The president acknowledged his mass deportation campaign could use a "softer touch." 🪖 National Guard: Trump withdrew federalized National Guard troops from L.A., Chicago and Portland after repeated legal defeats and opposition from local leaders. 📦 Tariffs: Six House Republicans joined Democrats to pass a resolution rescinding Trump's tariffs on Canada. The vote became possible as a smaller group of Republicans staged a floor rebellion against GOP leadership. 🗂️ Epstein files: Trump's push to shut down MAGA's Jeffrey Epstein obsession backfired spectacularly. The Justice Department is still grappling with backlash, with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) voicing rare criticism over revelations that DOJ tracked what lawmakers searched while reviewing the files. 📽️ Racism: A chorus of Republicans, led by Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), condemned Trump's reposting of a video that depicted Barack and Michelle Obama as apes. The White House initially defended the decision to post the video, but removed it from Trump's account, blaming a staffer. Later, the president said he "didn't make a mistake." 🇩🇰 Greenland: Trump dominated Davos last month with his threats to seize Greenland by any means necessary — only to retreat amid market turmoil, European fury, warnings from congressional Republicans. 🏦 Fed: The DOJ's criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell has drawn deep skepticism from Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who has vowed to block confirmation of Powell's successor, Kevin Warsh, unless the probe is dropped.
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 TARIFF FATIGUE
Alison Morrow CNN Nightcap February 12th A new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York confirms what economists have long warned about: The burden of tariffs is borne almost entirely by the people living in the country that imposes them. That simple fact, now learned experientially in 21st century America, is an Econ 101 lesson as foundational as supply and demand. US businesses and consumers last year paid for nearly 90% of 2025’s import taxes, the Fed branch found. That’s hardly surprising: The National Bureau of Economic Research and the Congressional Budget Office recently found roughly the same thing. And while the New York Fed report didn’t parse the split between businesses and consumers, the CBO report, published Wednesday, estimated businesses would continue shrinking their margins slightly to offset the extra costs, while passing on the bulk of the levies — 70% — to consumers. As for those foreign exporters President Donald Trump has long claimed would foot the bill? They’re taking on about 5%, the CBO estimates. In real dollar terms, the tariffs amounted to an average tax increase of $1,000 per household in 2025, according to the non-partisan Tax Foundation. Now, on one hand, these are just your standard academic mumbo-jumbo papers published by a bunch of nerds, for a bunch of nerds. The collective wisdom of economists has never much mattered to Trump when it comes to “the most beautiful word to me in the dictionary,” as he once described tariffs. But the CBO and New York Fed reports landed just as tariff fatigue is hitting hard in DC. In a rare rebuke of Trump’s signature economic agenda, six House Republicans joined with Democrats on Wednesday in a vote that would effectively repeal his tariffs on Canada. The tariffs won’t get repealed, mind you, because even if it passed the Senate, Trump would just veto it. But the brushback from Trump’s own party members didn’t go over well in the West Wing, as one might have guessed. Shortly after the vote, Trump responded with a threat of “consequences” for “any Republican” in Congress who votes against tariffs. Meanwhile, a Supreme Court ruling on the legality of Trump’s tariffs is due any day, potentially tossing his whole agenda into upheaval. In a statement, White House spokesman Kush Desai defended the tariff agenda, noting inflation had cooled and corporate profits have gone up even as “America’s average tariff rate has increased nearly sevenfold.” “The reality is that President Trump’s economic agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, tariffs, and energy abundance are reducing costs and accelerating economic growth.”  Beijing’s push to internationalise the yuan is gaining a new vehicle in Africa. Another major multilateral lender is set to diversify towards the Chinese currency to slash borrowing costs and reduce the risks of dollar volatility.
Multilateral lender Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) has confirmed that a debut panda bond issuance is “on the table for this year”, as it looks to deepen its ties with Chinese capital markets. Banji Fehintola, the executive director for financial services at the AFC, said entering Chinese capital markets was a “natural evolution” of a strategy. A strategy based on an established track record with major Chinese lenders, such as China Exim Bank, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and Bank of China. Fehintola said that while the precise timeline had not been set, investor roadshows were complete and a mandate was in place to act “at short notice” once market conditions were right. He said the issuance remained “an important part of our funding plan”. With Chinese benchmark rates at 1.8 per cent compared to more than 4 per cent in the US, AFC could halve its interest burden through the panda bond, which is yuan-denominated debt issued in China by foreign entities. The lender’s AAA rating from S&P Global (China) Ratings and China Chengxin International last year also helps to attract equity from Chinese pension and sovereign wealth funds. Fehintola said these ratings “demonstrate the quality of the institution” and showed the credit profile was excellent for high-level investors from China. AFC is following Afreximbank, another African multilateral lender that issued its inaugural 2.2 billion yuan (US$318 million) panda bond last year. Egypt, became the first African sovereign to enter the market in 2023 with a 3.5 billion yuan issuance. This aligns with Beijing’s goal to internationalise the yuan, allowing African nations or financial institutions to bypass the US dollar reducing their exposure to exchange rate volatility. Fehintola said entry into the Chinese capital market would see the corporation embracing local currency debt. “It is often more efficient to borrow in yuan directly and use that for trade rather than going through another currency first.” He said that given AFC’s “deep pipeline of transactions across the continent” involving large Chinese contractors and buyers, the corporation was already discussing settling transactions in yuan. Fehintola suggested that “yuanisation” was a growing trend, and something “you will certainly see more of” across Africa. Notably, copper-rich Zambia now accepts taxes in Chinese currency, and Africa’s largest bank, Standard Bank, has joined China’s [Cross-Border Interbank Payment System] clearing house to ease cross-border settlements. Beijing has been shifting away from traditional government-to-government lending towards channelling financing through multilateral institutions such as AFC, the African Development Bank and Afreximbank, to mitigate default risks. China Exim Bank has provided US$700 million in direct financing to AFC, which has also raised funds via syndicated loans – including a US$1.16 billion deal in 2024 co-led by ICBC and Bank of China, and a US$1.5 billion facility in late 2024 involving Bank of Communications. By positioning itself as an intermediary, AFC allows Beijing to fund major projects in Africa as it mitigates the risks associated with direct lending to cash-strapped governments.  Foreign automakers are stumbling as the Trump administration's trade war delivers a bruising blow and Chinese automakers bear down, writes Nathan Bomey Axios.
Why it matters: Much of the U.S. conversation over the impact of auto tariffs has centered on Detroit's Big Three but the blast zone extends far beyond General Motors, Ford and Stellantis. By the numbers: Nissan, which was already facing operational issues, said today its quarterly loss doubled from a year ago. Mercedes-Benz posted a 9.2% drop in 2025 revenue, while net profit fell nearly in half. Honda disclosed a 42% plunge in profit and a 2% decline in revenue. Toyota last week replaced its CEO after projecting a 25% decline in net income for the year ended March 31. Volvo Cars reported an 11% revenue decline in 2025 and swung to a loss from a profit a year earlier. The big picture: Trump's protectionist trade framework has bludgeoned foreign automakers, even those with U.S. production footprints. Toyota and Honda have significant American manufacturing operations but continue to rely heavily on an international supply chain, including imports from Japan, (Subject to tariffs). Meanwhile, Chinese automakers including BYD and others, are surging in markets outside the U.S., presenting a serious threat to the Asian and European automakers. BYD last year sold more vehicles than Ford for the first time and sold more pure electric vehicles than Tesla, another first. The bottom line: No automaker is immune to global trade and technology turmoil. [In the UK manufacturing output fell by 0.2% in 2025, compared to last year. Overall growth GDP basis, eased to 1% in the final quarter from almost 2% in the first quarter of the year. Growth of 1.3% year on year will do little to ease the constraints on public sector finance as we move into a new financial year.] JKA  Economics and Financial Markets Analyst - What can we make of the FED decision on rates this month ...
Executive Summary: The "Strategic Pause" Amidst Political Crosswinds The FOMC’s January 2026 decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50% – 3.75% marks a definitive shift from the "insurance cuts" of late 2025 to a high-vigilance "wait-and-see" posture. While the statement acknowledges a "solid" economic expansion and a stabilizing labor market, the internal rift is widening. A 10-2 vote—featuring rare dissents from Governors Waller and Miran—reveals a Committee split between those prioritizing the inflation fight and those fearing a delayed reaction to labor market cooling. 1. The Policy Pivot: From Easing to Evaluation ... After 75 basis points of cuts in Q4 2025, the Fed has hit the brakes. The January statement upgraded the economic assessment from "modest" to "solid," signaling that the US consumer and business investment remain resilient despite previous tightening. Rate Range: 3.50% to 3.75% (Unchanged). The "Neutral" Target: Chair Powell signaled that the Fed believes it is now within the "range of plausible estimates of neutral." This suggests that further cuts are no longer a foregone conclusion but will require clear evidence of disinflation or labor distress. Inflation Sticky-ness: The statement kept the phrase "somewhat elevated," a nod to PCE prices hovering near 2.9% - 3.0%, exacerbated by recent tariff pass-through in the goods sector. 2. The Great Divide: A Non-Consensus Vote ... The most striking element of the meeting was the dual dissent, signalling a breakdown in the Fed’s usual "united front" strategy: Governor Christopher Waller: His dissent in favor of a 25bp cut is seen by analysts as a strategic positioning. As a leading candidate to succeed Powell in May 2026, Waller is signaling a more pro-growth, "dovish" lean that aligns closer to the administration's preference. Governor Stephen Miran: A Trump appointee, Miran has consistently pushed for more aggressive easing, arguing that the neutral rate is lower than the Committee currently believes. Strategic Divergence: This 10-2 split highlights a growing concern that keeping rates at 3.5%+ while job gains remain "low" risks an accidental hard landing, even as headline growth looks “solid." 3. Market Impressions & Macro Risks ... The market reaction was a "hawkish hold." Treasury yields edged higher as the "Dot Plot" and Powell’s rhetoric suggested fewer cuts in 2026 than the 2-3 previously priced in by the OIS curve. Labor Market "Stabilisation": The Fed noted the unemployment rate (sitting at 4.4%) is no longer "edging up" but "stabilising." This removes the immediate pressure to cut for employment support. The "Shadow" Mandate: The elephant in the room remains the political environment. With Chair Powell facing a DOJ investigation and President Trump openly criticising "incompetent" policy, the Fed is desperately trying to assert its independence. Powell’s attendance at the Supreme Court for Governor Lisa Cook’s case underscores the legal and constitutional siege currently surrounding the institution. Digital & Disruptive Tailwinds: Powell alluded to productivity boosts (likely AI-driven) and fiscal stimulus as factors keeping growth robust, which ironically provides the Fed "higher-for-longer" cover. 4. Outlook: The "May Cliff" The Fed is now in a holding pattern until at least June. With Powell’s term ending in May, the "lame duck" period has officially begun. Markets should expect heightened volatility as the battle for the next Fed Chair intensifies, potentially shifting the FOMC from a data-dependent body to one increasingly sensitive to the incoming administration's fiscal expansion plans.  Gold Blasts Through $5,000 Handle With Care Gold has indeed blasted through the 5,100 dollars per ounce level for the first time, with the move driven by a mix of safe‑haven demand, dollar weakness, and geopolitical/fiscal stress.
Where prices are now Spot gold has traded in the 5,000–5,100 dollars range, with intraday highs around 5,110 dollars per ounce. On the day in question, indicative trading ranges of roughly 5,011–5,055 dollars are consistent with a 2–2.5 percent daily move. Over the past month, gold is up about 17.7 percent, and roughly 86 percent year‑on‑year, confirming the magnitudes you cite. Drivers of the move Geopolitical tension: Escalating conflicts and policy unpredictability (including aggressive tariff threats and broader “Trump‑era” policy volatility) have boosted demand for traditional safe havens. Dollar weakness: The dollar index has fallen to multi‑month lows, partly on expectations around the Federal Reserve and a stronger yen, making dollar‑priced gold cheaper for non‑US buyers. Central‑bank buying: Official sector demand, notably persistent Chinese reserve accumulation, has underpinned the market. ETF and retail flows: Strong inflows into gold‑backed funds and aggressive retail participation have amplified the move. Monetary backdrop: Looser US policy expectations and concerns about real returns on financial assets support a higher equilibrium gold price. Context and implications The current level around 5,100 dollars is an all‑time high for gold in nominal terms. Silver and other precious metals have also broken records (silver above 100 dollars per ounce), indicating a broad precious‑metals safe‑haven and momentum trade rather than an isolated gold move. Several banks and analysts now project upside scenarios towards 6,000 dollars per ounce in 2026, while warning of the likelihood of sharp interim corrections given how far and fast prices have run. One way to frame it (economics lens) You can read this as a classic crisis‑confidence barometer: an 86 percent year‑on‑year rise in gold, coinciding with a weaker reserve currency, aggressive tariffs, and geopolitical risk, signals a market increasingly willing to pay a substantial insurance premium against tail events in currencies and financial assets. Handle With Care The Saturday Economist AI and Perplexity AI  A New York Times/Siena poll released Thursday found 69 percent of registered voters 18-29 disapproved of Trump’s handling of the presidency, while just 26 percent approved. A notable 54 percent said they “strongly” disapprove of his handling.
A CNN poll released this month found 69 percent of U.S. adults 18-34 disapproved of the way Trump is handling his job as president, compared to just 30 percent who approved. And a YouGov poll conducted this month found 62 percent of registered voters under 30 disapprove of Trump’s handling of the presidency, compared to 36 percent who approve. That’s a net negative of roughly 26 percent. But what’s remarkable about this poll is that Trump had a net positive of 7.6 percent in January 2025, a stunning 34 percentage-point drop in a year. In talking with young voters and polling experts, a few possible reasons for the move away from Trump emerged. One, we were told, young voters expect to see results quickly. Two, they do not have the sort of party loyalty their elders do. Three, in some cases, they see his policies as being more extreme than they expected. Together, these factors may be creating a situation where young voters are jumping ship. Rachel Janfaza, an independent journalist who tracks young people’s political habits, said young voters in 2024 felt that life was unaffordable and took a chance at backing Trump despite possibly disagreeing with him on other issues. “But now they’re like, this isn’t what I signed up for,” Janfaza said. “Our generation is driven by issues, not partisan loyalty, and also really moves at the speed of digital culture and online culture,” added Janfaza, who is 28. “That’s part of why the sort of vibes shift so quickly is because that’s the speed at which the internet moves.” Jo Rogan Said “You don’t want militarised people in the streets just roaming around, snatching up people — many of which turn out to be U.S. citizens that just don’t have their papers on them,” Rogan said this month on his podcast. “Are we really going to be the Gestapo, ‘Where’s your papers?’ Is that what we’ve come to?” “Young men didn’t back Trump in ’24 because they loved chaos; they backed him for strength, stability and some control over their lives,” said Della Volpe, who is the director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics. “In our spring focus groups, many seemed willing to give him some time, but that goodwill is dissipating fast — especially when daily life feels so expensive, and Trump’s attention has turned elsewhere.” Washington Post 23 January 2026  It has been 12 months since President Donald Trump’s second inauguration on January 20, 2025, and to say it’s been an eventful year would be a massive understatement. We’ve seen the DOGE-led gutting of federal government agencies, a whirlwind of tariff announcements, a rigorous and seemingly indiscriminate immigration crackdown and the longest-ever government shutdown in history.
We’ve seen the U.S. pull out of dozens of international organizations and treaties, question long-standing alliances and fully embrace a new “America First” approach to foreign policy. In the past three weeks alone, the U.S. captured Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro, took control of the country and is now trying to strongarm Denmark and other European allies into giving up Greenland. And while Trump and his supporters would read this as a progress report, as a list of all the things the president got done, his political opponents shudder at the thought of how much more damage will be done over the next three years if America is already barely recognizable after one year of Trump 2.0. The American public, while not as vocal in their criticism of the administration as many observers would hope, is not particularly happy with Trump’s first year back in office. According to RealClearPolitics, Trump’s average approval across 13 national polls currently stands at 42.5 percent, which is close to the lowest it’s been since his return to the White House. Meanwhile an average of 55.1 percent disapprove of the president’s job performance, with Trump’s net approval, i.e. the difference between the share of people approving and disapproving of the job he’s doing, negative across all polls. Looking ahead at the midterms in the fall, Trump’s low popularity doesn’t bode well for the Republican Party. With some experts expecting a Republican “wipeout” that could result in the Democrats taking control of the Senate, Trump has, some say jokingly, suggested that there shouldn’t even be an election given how well he’s doing. It wasn’t the first time that the president mused about not wanting elections. When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky mentioned that his country doesn’t allow to hold elections during periods of martial law, Trump joked that if the U.S. was in a war in 2028, that would good for him. Given the events of January 6, 2021, it is perhaps understandable that many people don’t think this matter should be joked about. Felix Richter Statista https://www.statista.com/chart/34379/us-respondents-who-approve-disapprove-of-us-president-donald-trumps-job-performance/  U.S. Leadership Approval Slips Among NATO Allies
Anna Fleck, Statista Jan 21, 2026 World leaders have descended on Davos, Switzerland this week to discuss global economic and geopolitical challenges, from Ukraine to artificial intelligence. Top of the agenda, however, is Greenland, following the much-anticipated arrival of U.S. President Donald Trump today amid heightened tensions between Washington and Europe. In an address to European and NATO leaders, Trump said the United States is “seeking immediate negotiations” to acquire Greenland, adding that he “won’t use force”. Against this backdrop, new Gallup data illustrates how perceptions of U.S. leadership have shifted over the past year. Approval of Washington across 31 NATO allies fell 14 percentage points between 2024 and 2025, to just 21 percent, marking the lowest level since 2020, when it fell to 18 percent during U.S. President Donald Trump’s first term in office. The steepest declines were recorded in Germany (-39 percentage points) and Portugal (-38 percentage points), with approval falling by at least 10 percentage points in 18 cases overall. Turkey saw the highest increase in approval, posting a 12-point increase. The data was collected between March and October 2025, prior to recent developments such as the military action in Venezuela and the latest escalation over Greenland. Perceptions of China meanwhile have warmed somewhat. Approval of Beijing among NATO allies rose 8 percentage points to 22 percent in 2025, roughly matching U.S. levels. Gains were particularly pronounced in Turkey (+21 p.p.), Spain (+15 p.p.) and Greece (+14 p.p.). While the polling is from last year, more positive sentiment appears to have carried into 2026, at least in the case of Canada, as expressed by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who announced plans last week to work more closely with Beijing on trade in an effort to reduce dependence on the United States. Approval of Russia remained low at 10 percent, while the EU was viewed most favorably, with a 60 percent approval rating. https://www.statista.com/chart/35721/change-in-approval-of-us-and-chinese-leadership-among-nato-countries/  The £160 Billion Reality Check: Why the UK’s Fiscal Math No Longer Adds Up
Executive Summary: The UK’s public finances are currently navigating a dangerous "complacency gap." While the ONS headline for November borrowing (£11.7bn) suggested a modest year-on-year improvement, the cumulative reality is stark: the UK has borrowed £132.3bn in just eight months. With the OBR’s full-year target now mathematically detached from the historical run-rate, we are staring at a £20bn–£25bn overshoot. The "fiscal headroom" used to anchor the Autumn Budget is not just under pressure, it is essentially a phantom. For investors and corporate strategists, the message is clear: the risk of a Q1 fiscal reckoning is now the base case. 1. The November "Headfake". The City focused on the November print of £11.7 billion, a figure that was £1.9bn lower than the previous year. On paper, it looks like progress. In reality, it is a statistical distraction. The drop was largely driven by a surge in central government tax receipts (up 6.7%) and a temporary dip in debt interest payable. But these are cyclical cushions, not structural fixes. Despite these tailwinds, the borrowing figure still topped market expectations of £10.2bn. The "good news" is skin-deep; the structural deficit remains stubbornly high. 2. OBR vs. Reality: The Mathematical Inevitability The true story lies in the cumulative data. From April to November 2025, the UK borrowed £132.3 billion. This is the second-highest April–November period on record, eclipsed only by the peak of the 2020 pandemic. The current run rate is 8% ahead of last year’s £152.6 billion. (The financial yeear out turn). The OBR forecast for the entire financial year is £138.3 billion. Let’s look at the "Mission Impossible" maths: Total borrowed to date: £132.3bn Total OBR forecast for FY25/26: £138.3bn Remaining "allowance" for Dec–Mar: £6 billion For the Treasury to hit its target, it would need to average a mere £1.5bn of borrowing per month through March. For context, the average borrowing for that same four-month window over the past three years was £28.5 billion. We are on track for a total out turn of £161bn–£165bn. 3. The Death of "Fiscal Headroom" In the Autumn Budget, the Chancellor claimed a fiscal buffer of approximately £22bn–£24bn against the stability rules. This "headroom" was the primary shield against market volatility. However, if borrowing overshoots by £20bn+ (as the current run-rate dictates), that headroom is effectively wiped out before the ink is dry on the Spring Statement. This creates a strategic pincer movement for the government either: Redefine the metrics (again): Moving the goalposts to "Public Sector Net Worth" or other wider balance sheet measures. Emergency Consolidation: Scouring the departments for "efficiency savings" or introducing further back-loaded tax measures to placate the bond vigilantes. 4. Market Implications: The Gilt Market "Coiled Spring" The Gilt market has been surprisingly quiet, but this calm is fragile. As the scale of the overshoot becomes undeniable in Q1 2026, the Debt Management Office (DMO) will likely be forced to increase its issuance calendar. With the Bank of England continuing its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program, the private sector is being asked to absorb a historic volume of paper. If the market perceives that the Treasury has lost its grip on the borrowing trajectory, expect the Term Premium to spike. A "fiscal risk" premium on UK debt would ripple through the economy, raising the cost of capital for corporations and keeping mortgage rates "higher for longer.” 5. The January Reckoning The final "wildcard" is January. As the month of major Self-Assessment tax receipts, January usually provides a substantial surplus that offsets the winter spending surge. However, given the cooling high-end labor market and subdued productivity growth, the risk of a revenue miss is significant. If January receipts don't deliver a record-breaking surplus, the £160bn borrowing floor becomes an absolute certainty. The Bottom Line The UK is running a "peacetime" deficit at "wartime" levels. While the Treasury may attempt to manage the optics, the ONS data is uncompromising. We are entering a period of high fiscal sensitivity where every data release carries the potential for a market re-pricing. The Spring Statement will not be a victory lap for growth; it will be a high-wire act of deficit management. Editor’s Note: This analysis was developed by our research team in collaboration with Gemini AI and rigorously reviewed by our editorial board to ensure accuracy, integrity, and our signature style. |
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