 Harriet and Ken will form dream team ...
Ken Clarke returned from holiday this week to discover he is on the short list to become the next Prime Minister! Corbyn's bid to be the "Brexit Broker" banished, the former Chancellor of the Exchequer is ready to step up if need be. Clarke and Harriet Harman could be the dream ticket to form a cross party alliance to prevent the UK leaving the EU without a deal. Ken is ready to lead a government of national unity. "If this was the only way, in which the House of Commons could find a way forward, then I wouldn't object." said Clarke in a BBC interview. Many others including Dominic Cummings might ... Boris Johnson sidelined, the hard line "Brussels Bashers" are losing traction in the elected house. This all goes to show the dangers of going away on holiday even for a few days. The world is spinning out of control. A world in which the President of the United States is considering a contested bid for Greenland. In economic news this week, the latest jobs figures suggested the economy is stalling. Unemployment ticked up slightly as vacancies fell. The unemployment rate increased slightly to 3.9%. Yet the number of people in employment increased to the highest levels since records began, such is the perversity of data in an economy at turning point. Earnings excluding bonus payments increased to 3.9%, good news for households, the latest headline inflation was just 2.1% in July. Real earnings are rising. No wonder retail sales remain on track. Consumers enjoyed a shopping spree on line last month. Online sales increased by 13%, year on year, accounting for 20% of all retail transactions. With food penetration as low as 5%, the impact on all other categories is to take almost one in three transactions away from the high street, a trend set to continue as age demographics accelerate the move on line ... Yield Curve Inverting ... Markets were in a flap this week. The yield curve is inverting. Ten year U.S. bond yields fell to 1.5% at one stage, below the two year short yield. The FRED chart [above] had markets moving lower. On average the inverted yield curve has been a reliable indicator of recession to follow with a lead time of around 22 months. Should we worry about the inversion this time round? For many the evidence is convincing but this time may well be different. Janet Yellen former chair of the Federal Reserve, suggests "Historically it has been a pretty good signal of recession but I really would urge that on this occasion, it may be a less good signal. There are other factors pushing down long term yields". Here is the main difference this time round. Recessions are flagged when central bankers begin to increase rates to "take away the punch bowl as the party gets going". Interests rates are hiked to subdue inflation or to modify a looming trade deficit. Short rates rise, as long rates hold to the "Fisher Rule". The yield curve inverts reflecting central bank policy, central bank policy designed to engineer a slow down in economic activity. This time around the yield curve has been dislocated by life on Planet ZIRP and the introduction of QE. We model the relationship between the level of bond yields and the holdings of central banks. The higher the holdings of central banks, as a proportion of total bond debt, the lower the yields along the curve. A combination of central banks committed to buy, financial institutions obligated to buy and speculators motivated to buy, pushes prices up and yields lower. Andy Haldane, Chief Economist at the Bank of England has suggested we have created the biggest bond bubble in history. That was six years ago! A combination of cheap money and the search for "alpha" pushes prices to yet new highs. Already $15 trillion of sovereign debt, that's almost 25% of total world stock, is offering negative yield. Worryingly this week, Alan Greenspan suggested there is no barrier to negative yields in the US. "Zero has no meaning, it's just a certain level". Bond prices will move higher in search of the "Minsky Moment" when the madness finally stops ... For Trump the message is clear "Crazy, inverted yield curve ... thank you clueless Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve ... the Fed is holding us back but we will win!" Trump's rally fading risks re-election hopes ... The White House is beginning to worry the economic cycle is in danger of moving at odds with the election cycle. The dream of a second term in office will be at risk if the economy tanks and stock markets fall. Farmers are worried about the impact of the trade war with China. Truckers are concerned about the loss of traffic as import activity slows. Retailers are nervous about rising prices. Confusion abounds over the second round of tariffs on $350 billion dollars of imports. The direction of White House travel is confusing. Tax cuts and spending plans suggest the economy should be booming. The imposition of tariffs, valued at 0.5% of GDP will effectively create a consumption tax impacting on household spending and consumption. Trump offers "a personal meeting" with President Xi, to resolve trade issues, then offers advice on how too deal with the problems in Hong Kong to assist with the process. The President demands China reinstate Soy bean purchases, then announces the sale of F35s to Taiwan. The President announced the 10% tariff hike, against the advice of his closest advisors. The decision to denounce China as a "currency manipulator" was made against the counsel of Steven MnuchIn. The President has no understanding of trade policy, trade deficits and the impact of tariffs on U.S. and world trade. Confusion abounds about the lack of consistency of message. On the reading list this week ... "The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump", 37 psychiatrists and mental health experts assess the President. This is the second edition of the original best seller. Ten more commentators have been added to support the proposition that anyone as mentally unstable as Trump should not be entrusted with the life and death powers of the White House. It doesn't make for reassuring reading but on the other hand, does explain a lot . That's all for this week, have a great weekend. We will be back with more news and updates next week!
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 "Bags of Time" says Boris ...
The Office for National Statistics joined the ranks of "Project Fear" doom mongers this week. The latest data on GDP growth suggested the economy moved into negative territory in June with ominous implications for the rest of the year. “GDP contracted in the second quarter for the first time since 2012. Manufacturing output fell back after a strong start to the year, with production brought forward ahead of the UK’s original departure date from the EU. “The construction sector weakened after a buoyant beginning to the year, while the often-dominant service sector delivered virtually no growth at all." It all sounded pretty gloomy with fears of recession returning as the Brexit deadline nears." In reality growth in the second quarter was 1.3% compared to 1.8% in the first quarter of the year. Service sector growth was up by 1.6%, the construction sector expanded by 1.4%. Manufacturing output fell by almost 1%. Stock building in the first quarter was reversed in the three months to June. The trade deficit on goods and surplus was extinguished as imports fell. Boris Johnson has offered reassurance there is still "Bags of Time" to secure an agreement with the EU. That will come as a surprise to many in his own cabinet. The pound closed below $1.21 against the dollar. Ten year gilts closed below 0.5%. Markets are adjusting to the idea of Dollar parity in the event of a no deal. For government, the clock is ticking. Michael Gove has a count down clock on the wall of his office to focus the mind. It is next to his ideas box ... worried about a banking crisis ... a Bank Holiday the solution ... worried about panic buying, rationing the obvious recourse. Johnson has created a survival cabinet. Gove is the fall guy, Dominic Raab is in the Foreign Office to ensure Johnson's FO tenure looks great. Jacob Rees-Mogg has been distanced from the ERG, content with the new role as stand up comedian in the People's parliament. Dominic Cummings has is the "attack dog" people love to hate. Taking the flack for the Prime Minister offering comfort, reassurance and confusion in equal order. Why worry about a vote of no confidence when people have little confidence in the administration anyway, the message. Let's call a snap election in a "People versus Politicians" vote. No one will know what that means. Special briefings to be offered to Brexiteers and Remainers to dress as round-heads and cavaliers at the hustings. The government is preparing for an election, in the event of a "no deal no deal." Johnson really wants a deal, but the way to get a deal is to convince the EU, we don't want a deal. It's a sort of Brer Rabbit strategy. Convince the wily fox, we really want to leave the EU because we really would like to stay ... not sure the analogy works or the strategy for that matter ... we could end up tossed into the Channel, reliant on French fishermen for rescue ... Job Done ... Trump's on Holiday .. Trump is off on holiday for ten days. Camp David is off limits. The President needs to spend more time with his golf clubs. Job done. The Nobel peace prize virtually assured, the President offered to mediate in Kashmir, annihilate Afghanistan, go to war with Iran and cancel the nuclear weapons deal with Russia. Military maneuvers in South Korea, for which the Koreans are paying of course, led to rocket launches in the North. Not to worry, the President received another beautiful letter from Kim Jong-un. It was three pages long, one page for every rocket fired. The President received confirmation planning permission had been secured for the Trump Condos on the South East coast of North Korea. The beach area has previously been used for weaponry drills and ballistic weapons launches. Yes in this way, peace is brought to the world. Chats with China are not going quite so well. Trump's principal adviser is Peter Navarro, author of "Death by China" and "The Coming Wars [with China]". That can hardly help. The coming wars with China is subtitled, "Where They Will Be Fought and How They Can Ce Won". Americans are hoping no one in Beijing has read it. This week, Trump denounced the "Renminbi Runners" as currency manipulators. The Chinese administration pegged the Yuan lower against the dollar in response. Exports to the USA are falling. Tariffs for which American consumers are paying, the cause. U.S. farm exports to China are stalled. China exports to the rest of the world are increasing. The Asean market offers growth beyond measure in the decades ahead. This week Huawei announced proprietary software for mobile phones which will eliminate dependence on Google Android. Someone at Huawei is an avid Navarro reader. Beijing is prepared for the break with Washington. Chinese requirements for farm and oil imports will find willing vendors around the world. The strength of the Dollar is an opportunity to off load the trillion plus holding of dollar bonds held. The monopoly of rare earth metal supplies will provide an opportunity to squeeze prices and destabilize the competitiveness of US high tech competition. Trump has dropped the broadest possible hint that he is ready to dig in for the long term in the Washington’s trade war with China. He may have little option. Trade talks are set to resume in September 2019. The stand off is expected to continue beyond the presidential election in November 2020. Meanwhile the overall trade deficit for Uncle Sam is increasing. Growth without imports, you just can't have it both ways ... That's all for this week, have a great weekend. We will be back with more news and updates next week! John  Trade wars and temper tantrums ...
Trump's decision this week to increase tariffs on Chinese goods caught markets by surprise. Close advisors to the President had thought further hikes were off the table pending the next round of trade talks. Irritation with China boiled over as Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and Trade Rep Robert Lighthizer returned empty handed from Shanghai. No new proposals were on offer from the Chinese administration, following the impasse in May. Trump snapped. The cease fire was over. The President promised to "tax the hell out of China". A busy week for the President included planning the annihilation of Afghanistan and a big beef deal with Europe. Trump tweeted the "future between our two countries (China U.S.A.) will be a very bright one!" Markets were not quite so sure. Earlier in the week, the Fed had obliged with a rate cut ... "A mid cycle adjustment" of just 25 basis points. Stock markets bounced, Trump expressed disappointment. What the market wanted to hear from Jerome Powell Chairman of the Fed, was the beginning of a lengthy and aggressive rate cutting cycle which would keep pace with China and the rest of the world. As usual "Powell let us down". The Fed is confused about the direction of travel. Expansive tax cuts and spending plans are set to maintain growth in the U.S.A. The latest data on jobs suggests the economy continues to grow. Payrolls increased by 164,000 in July, the unemployment rate held at 3.7%. Powell speaking at the news conference this week, suggested the outlook for the U.S. economy remains favorable. So why the rate cut now? Powell added "the Fed was acting to insure against the downside risks from weak global growth and trade policy uncertainty." Uncertainty over trade is slowing the global economy and no one knows quite what to do about it. Powell admitted, he and other experts overseeing the economy are confronting “something that we haven’t faced before.” “The thing is,” Powell said, “there isn’t a lot of experience in responding to global trade tensions.” “We’re learning by doing.” Learning by doing and reacting to a rogue President with random ideas on international economics. Trump believes that China is paying for the tariffs. The truth is the American consumer is paying the bill. Tariffs are in effect a tax on consumption. The hikes planned for September will increase the levy to around 0.5% of GDP. The Fed is reacting to Trump policy on trade. The planned increase in September will hit imports from China including children's toys, video games consoles, mobile phones and laptops. Many will feature on gift lists for the end of year. "Trump has declared war on Christmas", according to Jock O'Connell, an international trade adviser to Beacon Economics. A war on Christmas and China is not picking up the tab ... Confusion over Brexit ... The Bank of England held rates this week. Uncertainty and confusion over Brexit produced a wait and see attitude by the MPC. U.K. growth is slowing, investment is falling, for the moment, job growth continues and real wages are rising as inflation levels are subdued. The Bank has reduced growth estimates over the forecast period. Global trade tensions have increased, global activity has remained soft. Manufacturing growth is falling around the world as trade volume growth slows. For the Bank, the likelihood of a no deal Brexit has increased significantly. The Governor warned, the response of monetary policy will not be automatic and it could be in either direction. Sterling closed just above the $1.21 level this week. The Bank has warned this could be a taste of things to come. Boris Johnson made a quick trip around the Union this week. Greeted with boos in Edinburgh and a lost seat in Brecon, it will take more than photo ops with a chicken to convince the EU the new team is strong in purpose. The car industry is facing severe disruption, Japan has made it clear, the UK is the gateway to Europe. Without a trade deal, relocation is inevitable. Internal government analysis warns of consumer panic, food shortages, medical supplies lost and chaos in the farming sector. This week Alun Cairns, Secretary of State for Wales offered some hope to farmers. The market in Japan has just opened to Welsh and British farmers. "Exports are already taking place. This is a market in which we haven't scratched the surface yet. " The UK exports almost £400 million of lamb products to the EU. Exports to Japan are expected to be around £10 million each year for the next five years. Lambs to the slaughter, is the real campaign slogan for the Brexiteers in Westminster ... if only China could shed that addiction to pork ... Markets react to week of turmoil ... Red on the screens of markets around the world by end of week, traders were forced to react to the threat of a further round of tariffs against China. Beijing is making it clear, there will be no conciliatory response to the Trump attack. A long haul is expected before a resolution is secured. Japan on Friday moved to increase controls on the export of a broad assortment of products to South Korea. Tokyo is raising the stakes in a political standoff that has plunged relations between the countries to their lowest point in decades. South Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in, condemned the move, which he said was aimed at sabotaging South Korea’s economy as it struggles with slowing growth. That's the problem with trade wars. They tend to escalate and operate indiscriminately. Central bankers are confused by the self harm inflicted by Trump and tariffs, Boris and Brexit. Central Bank commitment to maintain Q E levels is pushing bond yields lower. Ten year gilt yields closed at 0.56% in the UK. U.S Treasuries closed down 20 basis points to 1.88. In Europe, yields were negative 50 basis points. Why buy a negative yield? Well it could get more negative in the months ahead, the rationale. The Dollar is rising in value at the expense of Sterling, the Euro and the Renminbi. Oil prices are falling as fears for global demand increase. The threat of negative interest rates on bank deposits increases. Proposals are circulating for the abolition of cash ... Yes this week, the trade wars just got a bit more scary ... That's all for this week, have a great weekend. We will be back with more news and updates next week!  Boris Johnson made it into Number 10. Tory votes were cast two to one at the expense of Jeremy Hunt. The promise to "love bomb" opponents and detractors was cast aside. A cabinet purge ensued. Macmillan's night of the long knives was made to look like a rearrangement of the cutlery draw. Seventeen cabinet members were removed from office as the transition team moved into action.
Sajid Javid, became Chancellor of the Exchequer, Priti Patel moved into the home office, Liz Truss, became secretary of international trade, Andrea Leadsom is down for business, Dominic Raab moved into the Foreign Office, where big maps on the wall will explain the importance of Calais and Dover. Jacob Rees-Mogg became head boy and leader of the house. The guardian of Victorian values immediately issued a staff guide for internal missives. Matters of state to one side, there must be a double space after a full stop, no comma after "and", and no full stop after Miss or Ms. Banned words include "unacceptable", "disappointment", "lot" and "got". Banned phrases include "no longer fit for purpose". Why would that be? Imperial measures are to be preferred, monetary measures must include the sixpence and for the avoidance of doubt there are three asterisks in "f*** that". Boris Johnson announced the search for the British Mojo will be assisted by an additional 20,000 police officers on the street. Stop and search will be escalated to provide more knives for cabinet sessions, plus there is always the chance someone somewhere may be hiding that missing mojo in a hoodie. More money for the North, a train set for the Leeds Manchester link. Austerity is over. The quest to stay in office begins. Johnson made progress with Brexit, the Irish backstop must be removed before talks can resume. So yes we are off. It promises to be very exciting. The Queen was mystified. "I can't believe anyone would want the job", Boris revealed in a breach of palace protocol. "I can't believe I got the job", the probable reply. Not to worry, it could all be over by Christmas ... U.S. Economy slows ... Latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, suggests growth in the US economy slowed in the second quarter. Growth was just 2.3% in Q2 compared to 2.7% in the first three months of the year. Problems with trade and investment largely to blame ... the White House dream of 3% growth this year is dashed. Most estimates now assume growth will be around 2.5% for the year as a whole. Given the tax cuts and spending plans in process, the achievement is a grave disappointment. Trump believes the Fed is to blame, with over an aggressive monetary policy the problem. "Q2 GDP Up Not bad considering we have the very heavy weight of the Federal Reserve anchor wrapped around our neck. Almost no inflation. USA is set to Zoom!" Trump Tweeted. Consumer spending increased by 2.6% in the quarter compared to 2.5% in the first three months. Fixed investment growth slowed to 3.5%, exports increased by just 0.4%, as import growth continued at 3.2%.The US economy is slowing, Trump trade policy partly to blame. The Fed is set to cut rates by 25 basis points as ten year gilt yields move towards the 2% level. Congress and the White House agreed an extension of the debt ceiling this week. The $22 trillion limit has been extended beyond the 2020 election date. An increase in spending and a limit of proposed cuts will ensue. The US budget deficit is set to exceed 4% of GDP over the next two years, the dollar deficit heading for $1 trillion as the trade deficit continues to grow. U.S. ten year bond yields closed at 2.07% this week. The yield of ten year Greek bonds closed at 2.07% The Trump administration decided this week, not to engage in currency manipulation to undermine the strength of the dollar. White House hard line trade adviser Peter Navarro presented President Donald Trump on Tuesday with ideas on how to devalue the United States dollar to gain an upper hand in the trade fight with China. The president, who has regularly accused other countries of unfairly devaluing their own currencies, quickly shut him down and dismissed the proposals, this time ... Hasbro leaving China ... Hasbro announced this week, the company is relocating manufacturing facilities away from China. Vietnam and India are becoming the preferred destinations. Production on the mainland will account for just 50% of total production by the end of 2020. Trade wars are damaging the prospects for world trade the IMF has warned again this week. Growth in China may slow to just 6% for the year as a whole as exports and investment are hit. Nevertheless, no trade deal is expected until after the U.S elections. Trump may be forced to feel the pain before the voting round. The economic cycle is not moving in favor of the President. China is in no rush to make the deal with the U.S.A. Trade for China will pivot further to the Asean group of countries over the medium term. The Regional Economic Comprehensive partnership will include 26 nations across the region including India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. Trade with the Asean group increased by 4% in the first six months of 2019. The largest trading blocks of the future will be Asean, European and North American, in that order ... Trump's trade policy no longer fit for purpose but then it never was ... That's all for this week, have a great weekend. We will be back with more news and updates next week!  How do you like your PMs cured ...
Not long to wait ... the next Prime Minister of Great Britain will be in office on Wednesday. Boris Johnson is odds on favorite to win the Tory vote. This man will accept the poisoned chalice, to get Britain out of the EU. Such are the twists and fortunes of the Brexit challenge, Boris could be out of office by the end of October, if things go badly. The task is urgent. Another horrific tale of Brussels bureaucracy was revealed this week. Vacuum packed kippers sent through the post, must be accompanied by a plastic ice pillow, Boris revealed. Producers in the Isle of Man, are furious at the extra costs involved, a result of another useless layer of EU red tape. Leaving the EU would allow the UK to end this "damaging regulatory overkill". Putting kippers back onto a fair cost, eco-friendly platform, a key item in the Johnson agenda. "Pointless,expensive, environmentally damaging health and safety. When we come out we will be able to end this damaging regulatory overkill and do things to boost Britain's economy. We will be able to establish an identity as a truly global Britain and get our mojo back." Johnson explained. Are yes our mojo, that "Magic charm, our talisman, the object, an inscribed ring or stone, thought to have magic powers and to bring good luck." Boris as Prime Minister, will be on a quest for the holy grail of challenges, the search for the missing British mojo. A challenge akin to extracting the "Tory sword of Damocles from King Arthur's stone" begins with taking the plastic pillow from beneath the head of a smoked herring. It shouldn't be too difficult. The Isle of Man is not part of the EU and "the case described by Mr Johnson falls outside the scope of EU legislation, it is purely a national competence" explained Anca Paduraru, a European Commission food safety spokesperson. A yes national competence ... never in doubt ... we can send the pillow packing, packing in or out of the EU ... Retail Sales Rally in June ... More good news on the economy this week. Retail sales bounced back in July. Sales volumes increased by 4% in volume and value in the month. The number of people unemployed fell again in the latest data to just under 1.3 million, the unemployment rate held at 3.8%. Earnings are on the rise. Growth in average weekly earnings increased to 3.4% for total pay (including bonuses) and 3.6% for regular pay (excluding bonuses). In real terms (after adjusting for inflation), total pay is estimated to have increased by 1.4% compared with a year earlier. Regular pay is estimated to have increased by 1.7%. The growth in real earnings is expected to be maintained. The latest inflation data CPI based suggested the headline rate of 2% in May was maintained in June. Underlying inflationary pressures are weak. Manufacturing prices (output based) were up by just 1.6% in the month, input costs were negative, assisted by the weakness in oil prices. The blot on the landscape for the UK economy appeared late in the week. The borrowing figures for June revealed an increase in borrowing of £7.2 billion compared to £3.4 billion prior year. For the three months of the new fiscal year, borrowing was up by £4.5 billion to just under £18 billion. An increase in government spending largely to blame, the prospects for the year will not be enhanced by the announcement of public sector pay increases ahead of inflation. The government target of £30 billion borrowing in the current financial year is now at risk. Phillip Hammond has already warned there is little or no money to fund the Johnson tax promises. This week the OBR warned a no deal Brexit would lead to recession and an increase in borrowing of over £30 billion by 20/21. The search for the lost Mojo, may well be hampered by lack of funds. The new administration faces daunting challenges to achieve a Brexit exit by the 31st of October. It is an impossible task. A snap election no way to gamble the Number Ten dream. For the moment the prime task is to become prime minister. Once overnight in Downing Street, time then to reveal the strategy of "one bed, many dreams" ... Market Watch ... Sterling on the rack this week, the Pound closed below $1.25 against the dollar having tested $1.24 in the process. The prospect of a no deal Brexit spooked markets, the threat of a snap election will not help. In the U.S. the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points next week despite strong jobs growth and consumer spending data. Markets were confused by the speech from New York Fed President John Williams suggesting the Fed raised rates ahead of the curve. Williams suggested "more aggressive and preemptive action is warranted when the economy is weakening". Markets began to price in a higher rate cut. The New York Federal Reserve issued a rare clarification. The speech was not intended as a market signal, more an outline of twenty years academic research. Markets closed lower. "We have not seen anything like this before and we are not sure what they are thinking" said Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro research. It was left to the President to explain the process. "Because of the faulty thought process at the Federal Reserve, we pay much higher rates, our interest costs are much higher than other countries, when they should be lower. We must stop with the crazy quantitative easing. We are winning big, it is no thanks to the Federal Reserve" Jerome Powell, lock him up, or send him back ... drain that swamp, take back control, Taylor rules OK ... That's all for this week, have a great weekend. We will be back with more news and updates next week!  Sleep is the answer ...
The government is set to offer official guidance on how many hours citizens of the U.K. should sleep every night. The suggested guide lines will vary according to age and the degree to which voters have confidence in the incoming Johnson administration. In the event of a no deal Brexit, the guidelines will not apply to Brits living abroad or Remain voters. Matt Hancock, the health secretary is thought to be working with the Alexa app, to ensure the strict guidelines are followed in bedrooms around the country. Macbeth described sleep as the "chief nourisher in life's feast" according to the Times today. Famously, Margaret Thatcher survived on just four hours sleep.Trump digests just three hours sleep and a packet of Provigil allegedly. Steve Brine, a former public health minister, explained, working in government, "we are all familiar with the notion of being tired and grouchy", lack of sleep just one of many reasons. Matt Hancock is the man for the challenge. A man of conviction, Hancock was the first to jump his own ship and join the Boris bandwagon. Hancock's planned introduction of a sugar tax on sodas and milk shakes, hit a sour note this week. Boris Johnson, declared he was opposed to the extension of any action to extend the levy. The contradiction in policy may generate sleepless nights in cabinet for the health secretary. A man of conviction, Boris Johnson reaffirmed his commitment to leave the EU on the 31st October. Prerorgation of Parliament, sequestration of the Queen, a front with Farage, all steps will be taken to ensure Johnson secures election in the current Tory voting round. Jeremy Hunt on the other hand, thinks Brexit will all be over by Christmas. Boris, the historian is well aware, difficulties in Europe tend to take much longer ... Back to work in May ... Good news on the economy this week. The car industry went back to work in May. The Brexit shutdown, over for the moment, business went back into action. Let's not get too excited. Manufacturing output in the month was flat compared to prior year. This marked a recovery from the one percent drop prior month. In the second quarter of the year, we expect a modest fall in manufacturing output compared to prior year. Construction output is likely to expand by 2.3% in the quarter compared to a 3% plus rise in Q1. Service sector growth is expected to rise by just under 2% in the current three months. The data suggests growth could be around 1.4% in the second quarter. A slow down perhaps but still consistent with growth for the year overall of 1.4%. The trade deficit continues to be a problem for the UK economy. The trade deficit in goods was around £12 billion in May. £36 billion is the likely deficit for the quarter. This would be a significant reduction from the £47 billion recorded in the first quarter of the year when stock building ahead of the March 31st deadline, accelerated the shortfall. For the year as a whole we expect a deficit of over £150 billion. Leaving the EU without a deal, will compound the problem. Boris and Brexit is becoming the major concern for voters and business. Survey data suggests investment and hiring decisions are being postponed ahead of the hurdle date in the Autumn. Trump and Tariffs, Boris and Brexit, the challenges loom large for business in the UK and around the world ... Trump will get his rate cut ... Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal reserve gave the clearest indication yet, base rates will be cut later this month. Trump will have his way in the development of monetary policy. In a statement before Congress this week, Powell explained ... “Since June, uncertainties around trade tensions and concerns about the strength of the global economy continue to weigh on the U.S. economic outlook." James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed, a dove, said, “Sitting here today I would argue for a 25 basis point cut at the next meeting,” Bullard wanted to see a cut in June but lost that fight. “I put 50 basis points worth of reductions by the end of the year. So that would mean this cut plus another one at some point later in the year.” Powell made clear the independence of the Fed from political interference is of paramount importance. Despite intense criticism from the President, the chair made it clear he had no intention of resigning. Markets reacted with a strong Wall Street rally. The S&P, Dow and NASDAQ pushed to new highs. The Fed remit to nurture markets continues. Powell explained, “Our baseline outlook is for economic growth to remain solid, labor markets to stay strong and inflation to move back up over time to the 2 per cent objective". The Fed is moving ahead of the curve. The twin deficits will emerge as the major problem for the U.S economy in the medium term. At that stage the need for rate hikes will become more urgent. No need to squander ammunition now. The Fed believes downside risks to the economy have “increased significantly”. Latest forecasts suggest growth in the USA will slow to 2.5% this year, from over 3% in the first quarter of the year. Trump and tariffs the major concern. The White House may blame the Fed for the slow down. The Oval Office alone is witness to the major culprit. That's all for this week, have a great weekend. We will be back with more news and updates next week! John  It's the Boris sausage machine for sure ...
Hang on to your apron strings ... Boris Johnson is set walk into Number Ten as the next Prime Minister of Great Britain. Johnson is set for a landslide victory according to the latest poll numbers. He is backed by 74% of Tory voters. Jeremy Hunt, is supported by just 26% according to a YouGov/Times poll. Significantly, 90% of believe Boris Johnson will force through a no-deal Brexit. Just 27% think My Hunt would push through the no deal resolution. "Boris and Brexit" is emerging as the second greatest threat to the world economy. We have "Trump and Tariffs" in top spot despite the sound bites and photo ops emerging from the President's visit to the East last week. The race to find a personality for Hunt just ran out of time, despite the substantial resources committed to the project. The candidate declared last week, he was "happy" for people to hunt foxes with horse and hound. The Hunt campaign position on cock fighting, bear baiting and bare knuckle fighting was not revealed. What is it about the Tories and fox hunting? You may recall Theresa May decided to include a review in the Tory manifesto in 2017. Hardly a vote winner, the Hunt campaign team appear to have forgotten completely the irrelevance of this anachronistic pastime, to the majority of voters. Boris Johnson is on a winning rampage. So proud to have a sausage named after him this week, the "Boris sausage" man has put his weight behind plans to erect an enormous sausage overlooking the AI(M). It could dwarf the angel of the North, it is said. It would be a firm, long lasting, commitment to the Northern Powerhouse at least. The New Prime Minister, promises to make Great Britain Great again, unify the country and deliver a no deal Brexit. In office on the 22nd of this month, the one hundred day honeymoon, would continue until the 30th of October. Just one day, then remaining to deliver the deal, well good luck with all that ... Not being taken for suckers ... Trump declared in Osaka last week, the US is not "being taken for suckers anymore", a great transition since he entered the Oval Office as president. Not being taken for suckers? The world is perplexed by the mixed messages from inside the Oval Office. This week, the President enjoyed his military parade. The 4th July celebrations, were high jacked by the White House. The Trump speech included a reference to the great success of the American soldier in the revolutionary wars of 1775 to 1783. A success most heroic augmented by the President's claim "Our army, manned the air, it rammed the ramparts, it took over the airports, it did everything it had to do." Yeah like taking over airports, flying planes, great planes and things ... history never a strong point for the 45th President of the United States. Trump and Tariffs, trade wars are weighing on the world economy. Mark Carney Governor of the Bank of England warned this week, trade tensions triggered by Donald Trump’s tariff policies could “shipwreck” the global economy. "They are having a chilling effect on growth." World leaders are confused. Kim Jong-un received an invitation to the White House last week. This week the North Korean leader warned the U.S. is hell bent on hostile acts. How else to explain the invitation to the White House coinciding with the call to the U.N to implement tougher sanctions on Pyongyang. China made the position clear this week, the U.S. must remove all the tariffs placed on Chinese goods as a condition for reaching a trade deal. “If the two sides are to reach a deal, all imposed tariffs must be removed,” Ministry of Commerce Spokesman Gao Feng said on Thursday. “China’s attitude is clear and consistent.” Korea, China in confusion, Trump turned on Vietnam. The President expressed displeasure when asked about unfair trading practices, calling Vietnam “almost the single worst abuser of everybody.” The U.S. Commerce Department imposed duties of more than 400% on steel imports from the South East Asian country in response. The Trump administration took a shot at Scotch whiskey in the latest trade spat with the E.U. A $4 billion catalogue of European goods is now threatened with tariffs on products including Scotch whisky and Edam cheese. The latest world trade data confirms volume growth has stalled in the first quarter of 2019 compared to a 3.4% growth last year. The slowdown became evident through the year as manufacturing growth slowed around the word. Trump and Tariffs, Boris and Brexit, the two biggest threats to world growth. Lessons from history, so true, self imposed injuries are always the worst ... E.U. open for business ... Job growth in the U.S. this week confirmed the economy will continue to enjoy the ten year plus period of economic expansion. The trade deficit increased in May, despite the imposition of tariffs. The President continued his assault on the Federal Reserve."If we had a Fed that would lower interest rates, we would be like a rocket ship". A rocket ship overheating and heading for a crash. The President's grasp of macro economics is as well grounded as his grasp of aeronautical history. The European Union on the other hand has decided to just "get on with it". While the Trump administration walks away from trade deals and throws up ever more barriers to free trade, the rest of the world is racing headlong to deepen globalization, according to Foreign Policy magazine. U.S. consumers are paying higher prices at home, and U.S. producers are facing greater obstacles for their exports. “We reinforce multilateral agreements whilst others rip them up,” EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom said on Twitter Wednesday. After 20 years, the EU and four Latin American countries making up the Mercosur customs union finally completed a sweeping trade deal covering almost $100 billion worth of bilateral trade a year. Days later, as the Trump administration sanctioned Vietnam, the EU and Vietnam announced a new free trade deal. The Mercosur countries of Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay, together with the EU, are set to become the world's biggest trade bloc by the end of the year, dwarfing the free trade area between, the E.U and Japan. China will look to Europe as a great trading partner. The world is not dependent on the U.S. The period of adjustment may be a little painful in the short term. The E.U. has an ambitious free trade agenda. The U.K would benefit from a Brexit deal which includes membership of the single market and the customs union ... no need then for the Northern Ireland back stop ... The UK needs more than a free trade deal with the Faroe Islands ... That's all for this week, have a great weekend. We will be back with more news and updates next week! John  China and US make progress ...
Great new from Osaka this week, the trade talks between China and the USA are back on track. "Good Trump" was on display in Osaka. The President, following "excellent talks" with President Xi, promised no further tariffs for the moment, eased the pressure on Huawei and agreed to meet Kim Jong-un in the Korean DMZ on the way home. Earlier in the week it hadn't looked so good. Days ahead of the crucial G20 meeting, China’s state media ramped up the rhetoric. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was described as the “source of all chaos” in international affairs by the Global Times. “It is extremely rare for a world power to have such a crazy person as their top diplomat" claimed the tabloid, "Pompeo has become a person who threatens world peace and adds fuel to flash points between countries with conflicts.” Pompeo may well be flattered, talking an obvious hit for the President. He may also feel badly done to, the "bad boy" role is usually assigned to National Security Advisor John (the mustache) Bolton. North Korea had previously made clear the regime views on Bolton. “Crooked sound will always come out the mouth of a man who is structurally flawed. It is best this defective human product goes away as soon as possible.” It is not clear if Bolton will accompany President Trump to the Demilitarized Zone. Donald Trump has declared US trade negotiations with China to be “right back on track” after the highly anticipated meeting with Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka. Trump said the US would not impose further tariffs in a trade war that threaten the global economy. The world’s two biggest economies will restart negotiations on a trade deal. The tariff policy is facing increasing pressure at home. More than 300 companies were in discussions with government officials in Washington this month. The trade war between the U.S. and China has been detrimental to business. As Best Buy's merchandising director explained ... “American manufacturers may lose share almost immediately to foreign competitors whose products are not made in China and, therefore, not subject to price increases in the form of tariffs.” Apple, having warned of the potential threat to competitiveness last week, announced this week, the decision to move the Mac Pro assembly out of the U.S. and into China. It is a clear blow to the President's policy on trade and tariffs. The President is obliged to ease back on the aggressive trade stance. The new deal includes a promise to farmers they would win back lost markets as a result of the revived talks with China ... Vauxhall issues warning ... In the U.K, Boris Johnson may be committed to leaving the EU on the 31st October with or without a deal but Vauxhall issued a clear warning this week. French carmaker PSA Group has made it clear, it will only build the new Vauxhall Astra at Ellesmere Port, if the UK avoids a no-deal Brexit. PSA said, “The decision on the allocation to the Ellesmere Port plant will be conditional on the final terms of the UK’s exit from the European Union.” No deal means no new Astra. The new line will be headed for Poland instead. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders also warned this week, a no deal Brexit could deliver a “knockout blow” for UK car manufacturing. Frictionless trade with the EU is essential to maintain markets and supply lines. Border delays could cost the industry up to £50,000 a minute if the country were to leave the European Union without an agreement. Projections released by the society suggest that British automotive producers and suppliers would face costs of up to £70 million a day. Disruptions at the border would fracture just-in-time manufacturing lines. The industry generates a turnover of £82 billion. It made about 1.3 million vehicles for export last year, the majority of which are destined for Europe. The outlook for the UK and world economy is threatened by Trump and Tariffs on the one hand and Boris and Brexit on the other. We cannot be sure if the President is really going to be capable of a long term detente on trade. Neither can we be sure, the next Prime Minister of the UK will be able to deliver an exit from the EU on the 31st October with or without a deal. For the moment, the prospects for progress, appear to be more promising from the President but then ... G20 looks on ... In a G20 declaration issued at the end of the two-day summit, the world leaders committed themselves to realizing “free, fair and non-discriminatory” trade and to “keep markets open”. The declaration avoided criticism of Trump style protectionism. On climate change, all G20 nations except the US reiterated their determination to implement the Paris agreement. A separate note stated Washington intended to withdraw from the agreement “because it disadvantages American workers and taxpayers”. Fears that disagreement over the climate crisis could sink the G20 declaration were overcome with a compromise that again left the US isolated in international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The lack of progress on the climate emergency, despite it being flagged as a priority by the summit’s Japanese hosts, drew an angry reaction from campaigners. Kimiko Hirata, international director of the Kiko Network, said Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, had “raised expectations that he would use this G20 moment to take bold action for the planet. Instead, the Japanese Prime Minister falied to build a clear majority of support for climate action. “Prime Minister Abe and other G20 leaders need to get serious about their climate commitments and make sure they don’t show up empty-handed for the climate action summit in September.” The Kiko network is a non-governmental organization (NGO) supported by individuals, organizations and regional networks from all over Japan. The primary goal is the practical implementation of the Kyoto Protocol and the prevention of dangerous climate change. So some progress on trade in Osaka, little progress on climate change. The Japanese government seized the moment to re launch the whaling fleet. Japan has withdrawn from the International Whaling Commission which banned hunting. Japan will send out its first official whaling fleet next month, in local waters of course. That's all for this week, have a great weekend. We will be back with more news and updates next week! John  Central Bankers Hold Fire For Now ...
Drama in the air ... Donald Trump held back on a missile attack on Iran this week. "We were cocked and loaded, ready to retaliate" tweeted the President, "When I asked how many will die, 150 was the answer. Ten minutes before the strike, I stopped it." The Iranians had shot down a US unmanned drone earlier in the week. The President considered 150 deaths would be disproportionate to the loss of a $250 dollar flying machine. Capable of many things, the Iranians claimed the drone was flying in Iranian air space. Not so, according to Trump, the drone was flying in "international waters". A "submersible" flying drone, versatile indeed. "We had the evidence" said Trump "it was scientific evidence, not just words". The Iranians had the evidence, bits of the RQ-4 Global Hawk drone were on parade. There was some suggestion the shooting was executed by a rogue command rather than a regime call. Hence the Trump reprieve. US protocols have been amended to ensure the death toll is assessed before launch buttons are pushed next time. In similar news, central bankers were "Cocked and Loaded" but decided to hold fire for now. Mario Draghi received a standing ovation. He told the European Union that additional monetary stimulus and a much more expansionary fiscal policy may be needed to overcome persistent economic weakness. The President of the EU Central Bank promised once again, to do whatever it takes to support the growth objective. In the UK, the MPC voted to keep rate changes on hold. Noise from the hawks, including Ben Broadbent and Andy Haldane, was offset by the UK inflation slow down, announced earlier in the week. Headline inflation CPI basis slowed to 2%. Andy Haldane's call, to nip inflation in the bud, appeared premature for now. In the US, the Fed also held rates but signaled the possibility of a rate cut later in the year. The first cut could appear as early as July. The Fed appeared to forego the pledge to be "patient" in formulating interest-rate policy. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears to be promising to cut rates if need be, to extend the recovery into 2020. Markets rallied, bond yields fell. Stocks rose to records, bonds surged, oil prices jumped and gold rose above $1,400 dollars an ounce. The fundamentals in the US economy remain strong. The risk of the Trump trade policy remains the chief threat to growth this year ... in the US and around the world. Retail Sales ... Blowing in the wind ... In the UK, retail sales growth slowed to 2.3% in May. Cold wet weather kept shoppers from the high street. Clothing and footwear sales fell by 4.5% the biggest drop since July 2015. Online sales growth slowed to just over 8% accounting for almost 20% of total sales in the month. The pressure on the high street continues. Some slow down was to be expected. Total sales volumes had averaged 5% in the first four months of the year. Consumer confidence remains firm. Real income growth continues as the inflation data demonstrated this month. We still expect overall growth of around 3.5% this year. The level of inflation CPI basis eased back to 2% in May from 2.1% prior month. Service sector inflation fell back to 2.6%. Goods inflation increased slightly to 1.5%. Inflationary pressures remain subdued. Oil prices remain weak, despite the slight rally to $65 dollars Brent crude basis this week. Manufacturing prices fell in the month. Input costs pressures fell significantly. Cost price rises slowed to 1.3% from 4.5% in April. Output prices slowed to 1.8%. No pressure on the Bank of England to increase rates for the moment. The MPC will await developments in the Brexit debacle before making any significant move. Borrowing figures for the first two months of the fiscal year were released this week. Public sector borrowing was £5.1 billion in May, £1 billion higher than during the same month last year. In the first two month, borrowing was £1.8 billion up on prior year. Markets expect an increase in the current financial year to around £30 billion from £24 billion last year. The result is broadly in line with expectations. Tax receipts rose by £1.9 billion, or 3.5 per cent, to £56.7 billion on the back of higher income tax revenue and national insurance contributions. VAT receipts rose by £500 million over the same period. Corporation tax revenue fell by 0.8 per cent. Expenditure, in the month increased by £2.5 billion, or 4.2 per cent, to £61 billion. The task of the Chancellor made more difficult as austerity eases slightly. Global Economic Growth is Slowing ... Around the world further evidence appears of a slow down in global growth. Trump’s trade war is damaging business investment, confidence and trade flows across the world. The slow down in Europe and elsewhere, coincides with Trump’s intensified trade fight with China and other partners. A further escalation of tariffs on Chinese goods or levies on EU autos, could slow global growth to a crawl. French wine came under attack as the President railed against protective tariffs in the EU. Weakness in China, driven in part by fallout from the trade war, has damaged the economies of Germany, Australia and the Asian block. Exports from Singapore fell by 16% in May as sales to China and Hong Kong fell by 25%. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are “highly exposed” to the Chinese economy, supplying goods for the mainland market and re-export. Trump may think "tariffs are a beautiful thing" but others including US business are not so sure. Retaliation is inevitable. India imposed higher customs duties on a raft of U.S. goods this week, in response to similar measures taken by Washington. Apple has warned the tariff war with China could harm the company’s international standing and reduce its contribution to the American economy. Imposing an import tax on the iPhone and other products assembled in China, will “weigh on Apple’s global competitiveness”. Toy makers, telecom officials, port workers and shoemakers kicked off a seven-day hearing in Washington this week. The warning is simple. Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on nearly all Chinese imports would raise costs for consumers, disrupt supply chains and potentially force them to lay off employees or go out of business. Trump may think the Mexicans will pay for the wall and China will pay for the tariffs. Tariffs are in effect a domestic consumption tax, impacting on US growth. Tariffs and trade wars are a real threat to world growth. Just as Brexit is a clear and present danger to UK and European business. In the UK frustration at politicians has morphed into outright anger in the three years since the referendum. Companies continue to lose customers and delay investments, it is said. “It’s not that the Brexit uncertainty and fear of no deal is going to have an impact in the future, it’s having it right now,” said Carolyn Fairbairn, director general of the Confederation of British Industry. Trump launched his election campaign this week. It was much of the same. "Build that wall, drain that swamp, lock her up". Make America Great Again has been updated to "Keep America Great". It may not be so easy. Good news for the White House. The President may soon have friends in Downing Street to help the cause. Johnson is set to walk in to Number Ten. A snap election, followed by a deal with the Brexit Party could then see Farage next door as Chancellor ... That's all for this week, have a great weekend. We will be back with more (Shock) news and updates next week ... John  Causes Shock to Output ...
Manufacturing output fell in April. Latest data suggests activity fell by almost 1% year on year. The car industry shutdown grabbed the headlines. A 7% drop in investment and capital goods the major reason. It is a continuing story of lost exports of investment goods, as world activity slows. The trade in goods deficit was £12 billion in the month. A reversion to the mean, following the stock build augmented £47 billion deficit in the first quarter. It remains a huge deficit and a significant drain on growth. Service sector growth in the month was 1.7%. Construction activity was up by 2.4%. The job market continues to reflect growth in the economy. The unemployment rate in April was unchanged at 3.8%. There were 1.3 million unemployed and almost 840,000 vacancies. Excluding bonuses, average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain were estimated to have increased by 3.4, a 1.5% increase in real earnings. The ONS fast figure estimate for growth in the economy was 1.3% in the month, compared to 1.8% in the first quarter. Most analysts expect growth of 1.4% for the year as a whole, in line with the prior year figure. The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meets next week. Hawks are beginning to ruffle a few feathers. Deputy governor, Ben Broadbent, suggested the Bank’s latest health check on the UK economy warranted higher interest rates than financial markets currently expect. Chief Economist Andy Haldane said the time was nearing for a rate rise to nip inflation pressure in the bud. The MPC is unlikely to raise rates this month, or this year for that matter. Brexit remains a huge concern for policy makers in the UK. Fears of a global slowdown are haunting policy makers around the world. The Governor is unlikely introduce a rate hike during his tenure. His term in office comes to an end in January. We expect rates to remain on hold when the MPC meets on Thursday next week. Fed Set to Cut Rates ...? Last week, markets were pretty convinced the Fed was set to cut rates this year. As many as three cuts of around 75 basis points were expected. Stock markets rallied, ten year bond yields fell. The latest jobs figures didn't help. Just 75,000 new jobs in April supported fears of a significant slow down, pushing the Fed into action. The IMF reduced forecast growth this year to 2.6%, the World Bank to 2.5%. The Fed has suggested growth may fall below 2% this year. A significant slowdown following growth of over 3% in the first quarter. The White House team are more confident of growth. Larry Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council, said Tuesday that the U.S. economy will continue to grow at a strong pace through the rest of 2019 with or without a trade deal with China. Kudlow also shrugged off the release of weaker-than-expected economic data from last week. “The U.S. economy is very strong,” he told CNBC’s “Power Lunch. “I think we’re in very good shape and I think we’ll maintain a 3% growth pace this year.” “What has changed is lower tax rates, massive deregulation, opening up the energy sector and various trade reforms.” Good news from the Department of Commerce. Retail sales, increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.5% in May from a month earlier. April sales were revised to a 0.3% increase from a 0.2% decline. Indications continue to suggest a strong performance in terms of unemployment, retail sales and consumer confidence. For the moment inflation remains subdued. There is no pressure to hike rates, nor much pressure to reduce rates either. “Fade the futures.” That’s market jargon for going against the financial futures market is gaining traction. The market is betting on multiple reductions in the Federal Reserve’s main interest-rate target later this year. The trouble is, the futures market was just as certain late last year that multiple rate increases were ahead. Ten year bond yields closed up two basis points this week. Technically, a stronger rally may be in play as the Fed is likely to hold off any move this year. China tariffs remain a concern. Trump may consider "tariffs to be a beautiful thing", most economists are not sure. In effect they are tax on consumption supressing consumer demand and inhibiting investment as uncertainty continues. Hopes for a positive development on trade talks soon will be disappointed. At the moment we cannot be sure, the Presidents will meet for talks at the G20 meeting at the end of the month. China inflation on the rise ... In China, inflation increased to 2.7% in May. Food prices increased by almost 8%. Fresh food prices increased by 27%. Pork prices increased by 18%. The swine flu epidemic continued to impact on supply and price. Output is slowing.The latest industrial output figures from China fell short of expectations, with growth dropping to 5 per cent in the year to last month, down from 5.4 per cent in April. Analysts had forecast a modest recovery for May, with a growth estimate of about 5.5 per cent. Forecasts for growth this year have been reduced but not by much. GDP growth is expected to increase by 6.3% this year compared to 6.6% last year. The trade war is a significant inconvenience, not the major disaster Peter Navarro, Assistant to the President, and Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy would have Trump believe. Author of "Death By China, Confronting the Dragon" Navarro is a super hawk in the implementation of tariffs. Agreement is unlikely to be reached anytime soon. Unless President Xi meets for Dinner with Trump at the G20 meeting, further tariffs will be applied. A rare step in diplomacy and the art of the deal. It all depends on the mood of the President and how much Provigil Trump has imbibed. Reading this week, "The Siege Trump Under Fire" by Michael Wolff, the sequel to "Fire and Fury" Wolff revealed (p 54) “Admiral Jackson was the go-to doctor for the president. Jackson was a popular get-along figure, not least because he was casual about prescribing medication. He kept the president stocked with Provigil, an upper, which Trump’s New York doctor has longed prescribed him.” Interesting. Provigil is a medication that promotes wakefulness. It is thought to work by altering the natural chemicals in the brain. The medicine may impair thinking and or reactions. The warning ... "Be careful if you do anything that requires you to be alert." Stop using Provigil and call your doctor at once if you have, anxiety, hallucinations, unusual thoughts, unusual behaviour, aggression, being more active or talkative than usual. Evidence of overdose ... confusion, rapidly changing moods, agitation or excitement. So much explained and now revealed. Presidents Xi and Putin will have compared notes ... That's all for this week, have a great weekend. We will be back with more news and updates next week! John Our next Brabners Quarterly Economics Briefing will take place on the 25th and 27th June. We are in Manchester at the Lowry Hotel and in Liverpool at the Radisson Blu. Places are limited but you can still register here for the FREE Breakfast session. It would be great to see you there ... J |
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