On Thursday last week, the ONS released the monthly estimate of GDP growth for September. For some analysts, growth was stalling. For others growth was crawling, with some evidence of modest growth year on year.
We should call this the Schrodinger's cat economy. An economy both simultaneously alive or dead, With a government, objectively standing aside, undertaking a sort of quantum thought experiment to see what happens next. The data set was flat compared to the previous three months. Compared to the third quarter last year, growth was up by 0.7%. This, after growth year on year, of 0.6% in Q1 and Q2. Assuming no growth in the final quarter, the economy will have expanded by 0.6% for the year as a whole. This projection (0.6%) is in line with the Bank of England latest Monetary Policy Report for November. It's also in line with the latest National Institute (NIESR) UK Economic Outlook Autumn edition also released last week (0.6%). The devil, as they say, is in the detail. Manufacturing growth was up by 3% in the third quarter. Construction output was up by 2.5%. Service sector growth was up by just 0.5% as a whole. Strong growth in admin and support (5.2%) was offset by 5.2% decline in transport and storage. Strong growth in accommodation and food (2.3%) plus 3% growth in information and communications, was offset by slowdowns in financial services, professional services, insurance and real estate. (-0.8%.) It is a story of sectors, not widespread economic malaise. Car sales are up 20% year in year. Interest rates appear to have peaked. The Bank of England is projecting zero growth next year and just 0.4% in 2025. As we said last year, Why So Gloomy? The models ain't that great. NIESR have plugged in growth of 0.5% in 2024 and 1.0% in 2025. The average of forecasts from the panel of independent forecasts published monthly by Treasury is 0.5% in 2023 and 0.5% in 2024. The OBR (published in March) had a negative 0.2% out turn for the current year and 1.3% growth next year. So what do we know about growth? Not stalling but crawling. Crawling until the government gets a grip on policy. The King's speech was well articulated in presentation but stuttering in content. The Autumn statement does not offer up much hope of a boost to growth. The NIESR expectations seem reasonable for now.
0 Comments
Stalling or Falling ... What to expect from inflation ...
The inflation figures for October will be released on Wednesday this week. The Bank of England and most analysts are convinced the headline CPI index will fall to 4.7% from 6.2% last month. Thereafter inflation CPI may hit 4.5% by the end of the year. The large fall expected is a result of the adjustments to the Ofgem energy price caps. The 25% increase introduced in October last year, is now consolidated into the twelve month comparison. In October this year a 7% reduction in the price cap is now included into the year on year comparison.The Ofgem effect could have reduce the headline rate by over 1%. The impact on the underlying or core rate will not be as dramatic. Last month the core rate fell from 6.2% to 6.1%. Service sector inflation increased to 6.9% from 6.8%. The core rate may fall below 6% but service sector inflation remains a key concern for the Bank of England and the Monetary Policy Committee. Of further concern is the trend for earnings. Average earnings at 8% is just not compatible with a 4% inflation target, let alone the 2% inflation mandate. The MPC models assume a more modest interpretation of the earnings trend. 7% growth in earnings is the figure best sought in this week's data. If the data on earnings and inflation fail to meet expectations, then Chief Economist Huw Pill's projections of a early rate cut will fail to materialise. But this was never our forecast view anyway and it is certainly not the view of the Governor ... Meeting last week, the MPC voted by six votes to three to leave base rates unchanged at 5.25%. Three members Megan Greene, Jonathan Haskel and Catherine L Mann voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points to 5.5%.
Interest rates will remain high for an “extended” period of time and may even have to rise again if inflation trends off track, Governor Andrew Bailey has warned. “Let me be clear, there is absolutely no room for complacency. Inflation is still too high. We will keep interest rates high enough for long enough to make sure we get inflation all the way back to the 2% target. We will be watching closely to see if further increases in interest rates are needed. But even if they are not, it is much too early to be thinking about rate cuts.” The Bank expects inflation to fall (have fallen) significantly in October, thereafter to hold below five per cent by the end of the year. “We expect inflation to take another, larger, step down in October’s data when it is published in two weeks’ time. From 6.7% in September, we think it will probably fall to just below 5%. We then expect it to remain around that level for the rest of year.” Inflation is unlikely to return to target 2% until the first quarter of 2025. The Bank published projections showing the economy will grow by 0.6% this year, then flat line next year with zero growth expected in 2024. In 2025 the economy is predicted to grow by 0.4 per cent. Major concerns include service sector inflation and wage growth. “Despite the softening in the labour market, nominal wage growth remains much higher than would be consistent with the inflation target, if sustained at these rates.” It was said. The ONS measure of annual growth in regular average weekly earnings in the private sector was 8.0% in August, higher than expected and more consistent with an inflation out turn of 4.5% rather than the 2% target. “The MPC’s latest projections indicate that monetary policy is likely to need to be restrictive for quite some time yet. How long a restrictive stance will be needed will ultimately depend on what the incoming data tell us about the outlook for inflation over the medium term.” Financial markets expect the Bank to begin cutting interest rates in the second half of next year, although some analysts think the UK’s sluggish economic performance may prompt the MPC to start loosening policy sooner. The monetarists in the camp. alarmed by the latest money supply figures. think now is the time to start cutting rates. Friedman claimed “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”. M4 growth slumped to negative -3.9% in September. The 2% target could be hit much sooner than expected with a more damaging outlook for jobs and growth, if the monetary maxims hold. So interest rates may have to rise ... or may have to be slashed? The Pound trades at $1.24 this morning up from the October $1.21 low. Ten year bond yields trade down at 4.3% down from the 4.7% high last month. For the moment, the markets have decided, no cuts or hikes in prospect, rates on hold well into the New Year. In September, a majority of FOMC participants judged that one more increase in the target federal funds rate, at a future meeting would likely be appropriate. At the meeting last week, the decision was made to leave the policy interest rate unchanged. This despite strong economic growth, a strong labour market and fears headline inflation may be ticking up again.
The FOMC believes, the stance of policy is considered to be restrictive. Tight monetary policy is putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. The full effects of tightening to date have yet to be felt. It was time to hold and pause to monitor future developments. The suspicion also is the Fed seeks to bring stability to the bond market, especially at the long end of the curve. Ten year and thirty year bond yields peaked at 5% in October, reviving fears the Bond Market Vigilantes were saddling up once again. This morning ten years trade at 4.6%. Thirty year rates trade at 4.8%. Hardly a decisive move down but enough to steady nerves in a difficult market. "We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting, based on the totality of the incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation as well as the balance of risks. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. We remain committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2 percent goal and to keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below-potential growth and some softening of labor market conditions. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Markets now assume no further interest rate hikes. Rates will remain on hold until the second quarter next year. Our CME Fedwatch chart suggests two or possibly three cuts may be invoked by the end of 2024. It all goes to show ... by the end of 2024 ... If the markets weren't confused before, they are definitely getting there now .... At the October meeting, the ECB Governing Council decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility remained unchanged at 4.50%, 4.75% and 4.00% respectively.
According to the policy statement, "The latest information broadly confirmed the previous assessment of the medium-term inflation outlook. Inflation is still expected to stay too high for too long, and domestic price pressures remain strong. At the same time, inflation dropped markedly in September and most measures of underlying inflation have continued to ease. The Governing Council’s past interest rate increases continue to be transmitted into financing conditions. This is increasingly dampening demand and thereby helps push down inflation. The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner. Based on its current assessment, the Governing Council considers the key ECB interest rates are at levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to this goal. The Governing Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data." Official figures showed inflation in the Eurozone eased to 4.3 per cent in September from 5.2 per cent in August. Inflation is expected to average 5.6% in 2023, before dropping to 2.9% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025 according to projections from ECB staff. EU annual inflation eased to 4.9% in September, down from 5.9% in August, according to latest data from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. The IMF latest forecasts assume growth of 0.7% in 2023 rising to 1.2% in 2024. So trick or treat? The hold on rates is in line with our expectations. Rates may be on hold for longer as inflation trends unwind. Fed On The Fence ... The Fed is more agnostic. In their discussion of monetary policy for the September meeting, members agreed that economic activity had been expanding at a solid pace, the wording changed from "moderate" to "solid." They also concurred job gains had slowed in recent months but remained strong, and the unemployment rate had remained low. Inflation had remained elevated. A majority of participants judged that one more increase in the target federal funds rate at a future meeting would likely be appropriate, while some judged it likely that no further increases would be warranted. Now it would appear the Federal Reserve is virtually certain to keep rates on hold at the meeting on November 1st. That’s according to recent statements from Fed policymakers and the expectations of fixed income markets. According to the CME FedWatch Tool markets attach a 98.6% probability to the rates on hold event, this despite strong economic data in growth and jobs. Latest growth data for the U.S.A. suggests the economy expanded by 2.7% year on year in the third quarter. Forecasts for the year as a whole will be upgraded to 2.4% for the year, an upward revision from the latest IMF estimate of 2.1%. The job market continues to run hot. Inflation is steadying. Core PCE inflation in September was 3.4%. in the month and for the third quarter of the year as a whole. A hold on rates may bring some stability to bond markets. Ten year yields were trading at 4.3% prior to the Fed September meeting. At close this weekend, rates had risen to 4.9%. Thirty year rates were trading at 5.0% up from 4.4%. Are the bond market vigilantes saddling up?, the theme of our special edition this month Don't miss that. We had expected one further rate rise next week. Now this seems unlikely. Rates on hold trick or treat, more trickery than treat. Rates on hold to steady the bond markets. There will be further rate hikes ahead, to steady growth, wage increases and inflation. MPC In The Middle ... The MPC meets on Thursday this week. We had expected a further rate rise of 25 basis points but "rates on hold" is now the more likely outcome, or so it would appear. Speaking in Marrakech earlier this month, Andrew Bailey said “Our last meeting was such a tight one and as my colleague Huw Pill has said, they’re going to go on being tight ones,” he told the Institute of International Finance annual membership meeting. At its meeting ending on 20 September 2023, the MPC voted by a majority of 5–4 to maintain Bank Rate at 5.25%. Four members preferred to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 5.5%. Five voted for rates to remain on hold. Inflation remains "sticky", CPI held at 6.7% in September unchanged from 6.7% in August. Core inflation, eased to 6.1% from 6.2%. Food inflation has eased to 12.3%. Energy costs eased to 5.0% from 23.3% in June. Service sector inflation increased to 6.9% from 6.8%. Goods inflation eased to to 6.2% from 6.3%. Producer Prices are moving in the right direction. Input prices were at -4.5 % in September. Output prices moved to -0.1% from -0.4% prior month. We expect input and output prices to be negative in Q3 and Q4. Markets expect headline inflation to fall below 5% in the final quarter. Markets and the MPC have been spooked by the latest data on earnings. Earnings increased by 8.1% in August. Public sector pay increased by 12.5%. Private sector pay increased by 7.1%. Earnings at such inflated levels are not compatible with an inflation target of 2%. Neither are they compatible with base rates on hold at just over 5%. Ten year gilt rates closed at 4.6% this weekend from 4.5% at the end of September. The UK bond vigilantes not saddling up, just "walking and chewing gum" as the MPC is stuck in the middle between policy makers in Europe and the U.S. So rates on hold trick or treat? We'll have to keep watching the data on that one ... The Tories received a bit of a shock this week. Bye election results in Tamworth and Mid Bedforshire delivered wins for Labour with significant reversals of Conservative majorities.
Tamworth Labour tweeted that it was an “absolutely sensational result”. The Tories starting the night with a majority of almost 20,000 but Labour won with a majority of 1,316. Election expert Sir Jon Curtice said that “no government has hitherto lost to the principal opposition party in a by-election a seat as safe as Tamworth.” Tory Party Chairman Greg Hands said he will not resign despite the losses. "The swing to Labour was clearly disappointing but bye elections are not a good indicator of how the general election will turn out." "People think Rishi is doing a good job, He is the best leader to take the country forward. We are committed to halving inflation, restoring growth, cutting debt, reducing hospital waiting list and stopping the boats. We are making the right decisions on transport infrastructure, smoking and mathematics." OK don't mention prison overcrowding and popup cells in courtyards. Greg Hands sought to deflect blame away from Rishi Sunak, saying the defeats, which came on the back of two by-election losses in July, were the result of "legacy issues" that pre-dated Mr Sunak's time in office. The party's defeats have been criticised by its own MPs, with Dame Andrea Jenkyns saying the Tories needed to make "far-reaching major changes now". David Frost, the UK's former chief Brexit negotiator, said the results were "extremely bad for my party". I don't think it helps to suggest otherwise, as some party figures have done this morning. The current national polls are dreadful for us but these results are even worse. These results show that the national polls are broadly correct and that a strategy of denial is unlikely to work." George Osborne said Sunak and chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, have restored a rational, serious approach to politics but he and other Cameroons were offended when Sunak tried to present himself as the radical-change candidate after 13 years of a failed Tory government. I don't think he's really going to be able to pull that off, Osborne said. You can't say, "All that went before me was pointless or useless, because people will say: Well you were part of that party, you are pointless and useless." It''s a fair point. The bye elections occurred when Chris Pincher resigned for groping, Nadine Dorries resigned for sulking. There was no swing to Labour. Labour picked up 800 votes in Tamworth but lost 150 votes in Mid Bedfordshire. The Tories lost 16,000 votes in Bedforshire and 20,000 votes in Tamworth. Tory voters stayed at home. Legacy issues, thirteen years in office, pointless and useless. That's a lot of electoral baggage ... and a clear message to Number Ten ... It was Liam Byrne Chief Secretary for the outgoing Labour government in 2019, who penned the note for his successor to say "I'm afraid there is no money". Byrne came to regret the comment, which he described as stupid and offensive. Offensive to the millions of people who had made sacrifices to achieve the budget cuts. Stupid because it became easy for Labour opponents to bash the economic mess inherited.
Perhaps the comment was not quite as offensive as that made by the Tory Chancellor Reggie Maudling, who bounced down the steps of the Treasury in 1964 to tell Jim Callaghan, "Sorry to leave it in such a mess, old cock." Jeremy Hunt has wasted no time in advising there is no money for tax cuts in the forthcoming Autumn statement. Perhaps little chance of tax cuts in the Spring either, which will be the last budget before the 2024 election. The IFS have made it quite clear, the economy is in a bit of a mess "Old Cock". "We are in a horrible fiscal bind as low growth and high debt interest payments mean there is no room for manoeuvre." "The UK economy remains stuck between weak growth on the one hand and the risk of persistently high inflation on the other. An ill-timed fiscal loosening, such as an unfunded package of pre-election tax cuts might give a short-term economic sugar rush, but could prove unsustainable. This could lead to a protracted recession as interest rates rise even further to bring inflation back under control. The state of the public finances also undermines the case for net tax cuts any time soon. The Chancellor is in a terrible bind, as will be whoever is Chancellor after the general election. Poor growth and very high spending on debt interest over the next few years mean that the national debt is stuck at close to 100% of national income. In the first six months of the year, Public Sector Borrowing was £81.7 billion. That's £15.3 billion up on prior year, an increase of 23%. In the full year, 2022/23, borrowing was £128.3 billion. Pro rata the government is set to borrow over £150 billion this year [in line with OBR forecasts]. Total debt has risen to £2.6 trillion, 97.8% of GDP. Political pressure are rising, especially following the bye election results this month. Jeremy Hunt may well caution, "I'm afraid there is no money." The response may well be, "Well just print some more then anyway. We can sort the mess out later ... The Labour Party was in Liverpool this week. "Let's Get Britain's Future Back" the slogan. The Conservative Party was in Manchester last week, "Let's Get Britain's History Behind Us" the objective. For the Labour Party, it was the best of times. For the Tories, it was the worst of times.
News that NHS waiting lists had topped 8 million was bad, but then came news waiting lists would have to be added to prison occupation. Judges were warned sentencing should be delayed, the prison cells were full. But where to put them. Criminals could be handcuffed to trolleys outside A&E or held over in prison delivery vehicles, or put on a flight to Rwanda, the home office favourite option, perhaps. Rishi Sunak was forced to admit the list of project for infrastructure in the North was "illusory". Although the word used was "illustrative", I guess we knew what he meant. OK, the metro link to Manchester airport was on the list, even though it was completed over seven years ago. A simple mistake by a few SPADs, late at night, over drinks and pizza in the Midland hotel. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt was in cautious mode. Tens of billions of pounds of higher debt interest payments and a slowing economy suggest the UK's fiscal picture is far worse than it was in the spring. The growth outlook has worsened, ruling out the possibility of tax cuts this Autumn. No excitement ahead of the Autumn statement. So what is the point of an Autumn statement at all? "Make UK" has urged the Chancellor to drop the concept of an Autumn statement altogether, there really is nothing to add. If the best policy offer from the Prime Minister is a ban on smoking and maths to eighteen, then what can a beleaguered Chancellor offer, in a week in which the IMF downgrades forecasts for growth. So it was left to Prime Minister in waiting, Sir Kier Starmer to fill the void. Starmer's conference speech was considered to be one of his best yet. It didn't get off to a great start. When he walked on stage, a protester sprang upon him with a handful of glitter before being tackled to the ground by security. "If he thinks that bothers me, he doesn't know me," Starmer quipped. John Prescott would have thumped the intruder. Starmer didn't look bothered. He just took off his sparkly jacket, rolled up his sleeves and carried on. His audience loved him for it. According to Freddie Hawyard in the New Statesman, his main theme was rebuilding the future through infrastructure investment, planning reform and 1.5 million new homes. Starmer wants to build another generation of new towns, like Clement Attlee before him. He spoke of investment not as a burden on the national debt but as an opportunity to save money, crowd in private finance, create jobs and growth. "Government must steer the ship on industrial policy. That's a crucial part of any plan for growth," Starmer insisted, he wanted "not state control, not pure free markets, but a genuine partnership between business and government." It was a speech devoid of detail but offered direction. ‘Never interfere with an enemy while he’s in the process of destroying himself.’ the guideline. Starmer was keen to avoid giving the Tories too much ammunition. Tony Blair had carefully avoided detail in the run-up to the election of 1997. So careful was he, not to go into any detail in that campaign, that Roy Jenkins famously described Tony Blair as being "like a man carrying a Ming vase across a highly polished floor". "Sir Kier Starmer", according to Philip Johnston in The Telegraph, "is the latest Labour leader tip-toeing towards an election, terrified he will drop the priceless piece of porcelain". "His windy speech at the party conference, was replete with hackneyed generalizations and low on specifics." The Labour leader said "he wanted the nation to "walk towards a decade of national renewal and face down the age of insecurity". "Contrasting 13 years of things can only get better, with 13 years of things have only got worse". So what to make of it all? Rishi Sunak's rating has fallen to a record low since the Conservative Party conference, according to polling for The Times. The YouGuv survey found that only 20 per cent of voters believed Sunak would make the best Prime Minister. Sir Keir Starmer's rating fell by two points, to 32 per cent. Highlighting the uncertainty among voters a year before the possible date of the next election. 43 per cent of voters said they were not sure who would make the best leader. Matt Hancock in The Times today reports "In our monthly Times Radio focus group we asked a group of undecided voters what they made of it all. Sunak was seen as "quietly confident" "wealthy", "unbelievable", "untrustworthy" and "very, very, very rich". Starmer, by contrast, was "boring", "hopeless', "drab", "rubbish", "wet", "uninspiring" and "vanilla". It just goes to show, "not all that glitters can be sold." Even so, the latest YouGov/Times voting intention poll, post conference, shows the Conservatives on 24% to Labour's 47% up two points. It promises to be an interesting year ahead. Well we didn't see that coming. Rachel Reeves delivered what many consider to be her best speech yet.
According to Freddie Hayward in the New Statesman, "This was the best speech of her career so far. She spoke with seriousness and conviction. OK, there was little new substantive policy. A commitment to crowding-in private investment, a reduction in the government's use of consultants, a new team to claw back the money fraudsters stole during the pandemic. Restrictions on ministers use of private planes. A few million here or there is not going to change the purpose of the state. But it still matters politically." Reeves's key objective is reassuring voters that Labour won't crash the economy, but the Tories will. "The biggest risk to Britain's economy, is five more years of the Conservative party." Richard Partington writing in the Guardian, distilled five key takeaways from the speech. 1 Labour is open for business ... 2 Reeves is opposed to tax increases ... 3 Labour Backs Spending Discipline ... 4 Business Investment is a Labour Priority ... 5 Starmer wants to build not block ... And business was there in support or out of curiosity. Exhibition stands for Google, Ineos and Specsavers; slick videos for Amazon and Uber, fringe events sponsored by Deliveroo and Goldman Sachs. The parliamentary lounge was sponsored by Lloyds Bank. Make UK were impressed. "I'm very impressed by Rachel Reeves. She seems extremely competent" says Stephen Phipson, the chief executive of the manufacturing trade group Make UK. "What we've seen from the Labour party is a really strong commitment to making things in this country. We never saw that last week at the Tory conference. The whole thing about stability ... it was perfect. We have been calling for this for years." Greg Fitzgerald, the chief executive of housebuilder Vistry said, "We are encouraged by the moves which seek to deliver short, medium and long-term changes to unblock and reform the planning system." Sir Nigel Wilson, group chief executive at Legal & General, says: "We welcome Labour's approach, which seeks to take a holistic view of barriers to deliver ambitious outcomes [in the housing sector]." It was Mark Carney who delivered the surprise intervention into the Reeves presentation. Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England between 2013 and 2020 in a video message ahead of her speech, described Rachel Reeves as a "serious economist" "She began her career at the Bank of England, so she understands the big picture," he said. "But, crucially she understands the economics of work, of place and family. It is beyond time we put her energy and ideas into action." Well we didn't see that coming either. He didn't say that about Jeremy Hunt. Maybe all that glitters, can be sold after all, with a little bit of central bank sparkle. Ready To Serve, Ready To Lead, Ready To Rebuild, Ready For Action ... Let's Get Britain's Future Back on Track ... In London this week. The trip as part of a series of events, with Praetura. Praetura Group is the Manchester based financial services company specializing in lending and equity solutions for startups and SMEs. Dave Foreman MD, one of the founder members was presenting, a number of invested companies formed part of a fascinating panel. I opened the session with a thirty minute round up of the UK and World Economy. Lot of discussion about inflation and interest rates especially in view of the "Bond Market Mayhem" in the U.S. this week, but more on that later. Our trip did not get off to a great start.
Traveling from Lancaster to London, the scheduled train was cancelled. The next available train was overcrowded. The train eventually arrived in Euston, thirty minutes late. We were held up in Warrington station. Someone pulled the emergency cord. The pressure of the trip from Glasgow, too much perhaps. One guy just couldn't take any more. For him, the remainder of the trip to London was scrapped. Rishi Sunak's speech in Manchester came to mind. He had done a lot of scrapping this week, including HS2. News of the Sam Bankman-Fried trial filtered through, the FTX boss had stolen over $10 billion in an "Empire Built on Lies", the jury was told. This as nothing. Rishi Sunak had stolen almost $50 billion dollars from the people of the North in his speech. The promise of a ten billion dollar spend on potholes, evidence of myopia and misdirection, offering little comfort. No high speed rail, a ban on cigarettes, the promise of mathematics into the future the greater vision. For some it gets worse. If you've been struggling to find Walkers Worcester Sauce crisps, there is bad news. Walkers confirmed the derivative has been scrapped. Walkers has not confirmed why the decision was made. Rumours are circulating of an intervention by Number ten. Fans have flocked to Twitter to lament the loss. One said: "Walkers sacking off Worcester sauce crisps is absolutely criminal, as if the damage hadn't been done enough by getting rid of beef and onion." The Tories are blaming Labour for that one. Yep that and the tax on meat. |
The Saturday EconomistAuthorJohn Ashcroft publishes the Saturday Economist. Join the mailing list for updates on the UK and World Economy. Archives
April 2024
Categories
All
|
The Saturday Economist |
The material is based upon information which we consider to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or omissions of opinion or fact. In particular, no reliance should be placed on the comments on trends in financial markets. The presentation should not be construed as the giving of investment advice.
The Saturday Economist, weekly updates on the UK economy.
Sign Up Now! Stay Up To Date! | Privacy Policy | Terms and Conditions | |