Good news for the economy continued this week. A fall in the rate of unemployment AND an increase in output and orders for the construction industry. Who would believe it was just a few months ago headlines were devoted to the risk of a triple dip recession? The year is becoming a tale of two halves with a significant pick up in activity and sentiment into the third quarter. Get ready, we are leaving Planet ZIRP. Speed bumps in the housing market It is a strange recovery with strange roles in evidence. The Bank of England is hoping to keep base rates on hold for three years. The RICS warned this week of the need to maintain a stable and sustainable path for house prices. “We suggest setting an annual growth rate threshold in a national index, which if exceeded, triggers tighter macro prudential policy” said Josh Miller Senior Economist in the RICS report. The RICS is advocating “speed bumps” to limit the rate of price increases. The Bank of England (in the form of the FPC) should intervene to regulate mortgage allocations of LTV ratios across the UK if prices moved over 5%. That sort of thing. “Taking away the punch bowl as the party gets started” is the traditional role of the central banker. Now some of the heavy drinkers are suggesting, we dilute the hooch. How strange. Most commentators have reacted badly to the suggestion. Why 5%? Is there a regional variation? Is it the same for maisonettes and mansions? Should the government confiscate revenues where prices exceed the guidelines? Are the RICS advocating a prices and incomes board, monitored by the RICS perhaps? Graeme Leach at the IOD has suggested it is a “statist solution to a state created problem”. Calm down Graeme, it was just for fun and not to be taken too seriously. The FPC is to meet this week. Top of the agenda will be the need to limit loan to value ratios. The government “homes for heroes” scheme, (the scheme in which the tax payer underwrites high loan values for house buyers) will be on the agenda no doubt. Unemployment The unemployment rate ticked down in July to 7.7% in July. The claimant count fell to 4.2% in August. The number of claimants - down by 32,000 to 1.4 million. Further indicators the recovery is on track, towards trend rate of growth, into the final quarter. What does this mean for forward guidance? The models still suggest it will be the end of 2015 at least before the 7% threshold will be reached. That is the rate at which the MPC will begin to think about base rate rises, (speed bumps and knock out drops aside). The caveat about earnings continues. The recovery cannot be sustained without a change in household fortunes, either lower inflation or higher earnings growth is required. Plus, the UK cannot grow at a faster rate then Europe for too long, without the trade deficit coming under severe pressure. The trade deficit, of itself, “a speed bump or pothole”, where growth is concerned. Construction Good news on construction. Output increased in July by 2% compared to July last year. Orders for new work, especially in the housing market, were up by 33% compared to the same time last year. This is an important change indicator for the sector. Overall the growth in services continues. The recovery in manufacturing and construction will look much stronger into the final quarter of the year. The UK recovery is on track. It is just over eighteen months to the election. Buckle up, we are leaving Planet ZIRP. Gilts are already in low orbit. What happened to sterling? Sterling responded to the economics news, moving up against the dollar and also against the Euro. The pound closed at $1.5871 from $1.5627 and at €1.1940 from €1.1860 against the euro. The dollar moved up against the yen closing at ¥99.4 from ¥99.0 Oil Price Brent Crude closed at $111 from $114. The average price in September last year was almost $113. We expect oil to average $112 in the current quarter, with no real inflationary impact. Markets, rallied - The Dow closed up at 15,376 from 14,923. The FTSE closed up at 6,584 from 6,547. The Fed statement this month will mark the larger DOW move. Still a good time to move in? The FTSE will clear 7000 within ten weeks and the DOW will press 16,000. UK Ten year gilt yields closed at 2.94 from 2.95, US Treasury yields closed at 2.89 from 2.93. Long rates are decoupling from shorts, returning to fair value. They are just a bit reluctant to leave! Gold closed at $1,312 from $1,388. The bulls have it or do they? Some still worry about tapering. That’s all for this week, don’t miss The Sunday Times and Croissants out tomorrow. Join the mailing list for The Saturday Economist or forward to a friend UK Economics news and analysis : no politics, no dogma, no polemics, just facts. John © 2013 The Saturday Economist. John Ashcroft and Company, Dimensions of Strategy . The material is based upon information which we consider to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or omissions of opinion or fact. In particular, no reliance should be placed on the comments on trends in financial markets. The receipt of this email should not be construed as the giving of investment advice.
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Economics news – growth revised up in second quarter ... The second estimate of GDP for the second quarter was released on Friday. Growth was revised up by 0.1% providing a quarter on quarter gain of 0.7% and a 1.5% gain on the same quarter last year. Good news? ... of course. Consensus forecasts for the rest of the year are now around the 1.1% level with 1.8% in prospect for 2014. The revisions in the quarter attributed to smaller falls in output in manufacturing, construction and agriculture. Service sector growth overall was unchanged at 2.1% year on year. Service sector growth remained dominant accounting for 80% of total output in the economy. Manufacturing and construction (accounting for almost all of the remainder) fell by 0.5%. Real investment growth continued to fall but there was some good news on trade as export growth was up by almost 5% and import growth was flat in the quarter. Blip or flip? More of a blip, the trend in trade will not be sustainable for the year as a whole. Imports will increase as the economy grows. Exports will suffer as world trade slows. World Trade : according the the latest data from the CPB World Trade Monitor, world trade growth slowed to 2% in the first six months of the year. Although the latest data from the USA, China and Europe is more positive on output, UK export growth will be a challenge over the next six months. Our current forecast for world trade growth is just 3% but even this may be too optimistic. Particularly if we examine what is happening to the BISTO kids. Brazil, Indonesia, India, South Africa and Turkey are facing the challenge of currency weakness as capital flows are repatriated to the USA. The BRIC wall is under pressure as the beginning of the end of tapering in the USA, i.e. the end of QE, is putting real yield into US treasury investment once again. Dollars are returning to the homeland as Uncle Sam calls time on financial repression. Government Borrowing: In other UK news, the government borrowing figures were released on Wednesday. At first glance the figures for July Public Sector Borrowing were disappointing. Borrowing was £0.1 billion, this was £0.9 billion higher than last year when the government was in surplus. Not a huge amount - it’s only a £ billion after all - but it would appear the trend is heading in the wrong direction. A closer look at the figures reveals, receipts in the first four months of the year were 10% up on prior year driven by a steady increase in VAT receipts (up by 3%) and a significant increase in tax receipts, income, capital taxes and other taxes. Spending, on the other hand was up by just 4% in the year, interest payments and social security spending increased by less than 2%. In the current financial year, for the Chancellor, the news will get just better. On current trends we expect borrowing to fall to around £100 billion as spending plans are limited and an increase in growth, jobs, incomes and spending boosts receipts. The overall picture for the Treasury will look much better as the year progresses. What happened to sterling? Sterling responded to the economics news, moving lower. The pound closed at $1.5569 from $1.5633 and at €1.1629 from €1.1713 against the euro. The dollar moved up against the yen closing at ¥98.6 from ¥97.50 Oil Price Brent Crude closed up at $111.04 from $110.40. The average price in August last year was almost $115. We expect oil to average $112 in the current quarter. Markets, stabilised - The Dow closed at 15,010 from 15,081. The FTSE closed down at 6,492 from 6.499.99. A further chance for market makers to clean out the bear pit. A good time to average in. We still think the FTSE will clear 7000 within ten weeks. UK Ten year gilt yields closed unchanged at 2.72, US Treasury yields closed up at 2.82 from 2.83. Gold closed up at $1,397 from $1,377. The bulls may have it as prices edge higher. That’s all for this week, don’t miss The Sunday Times and Croissants out tomorrow. If you enjoy the Saturday Economist, please forward to a colleague of friend. Here's is the link to join the Mailing list for The Saturday Economist. John 10,000 now receive the Saturday Economist each week. UK Economics news and analysis : no politics, no dogma, no polemics, just facts. John Ashcroft is the Saturday Economist, Chief Economist at the Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce, Economics Adviser to Duff & Phelps and Chief Executive of pro.manchester. The views expressed are personal and in no way reflect the policy statements of organisations with which we work. The material is based upon information which we consider to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or omissions of opinion or fact. In particular, no reliance should be placed on the comments on trends in financial markets. The receipt of this email should not be construed as the giving of investment advice. It's just for fun, what's not to like! Dr John Ashcroft is The Saturday Economist. Economics news – for a further week, the good news keeps on coming ... falling inflation, a fall in unemployment plus a boost to retail sales in July ... Inflation figures were reported on Tuesday. The CPI inflation index fell to 2.8% in July from 2.9% in the prior month. By the end of the year we expect inflation to fall below the 2.5% threshold but the 2% target will be elusive for many months if not years ahead. In October the hefty tuition fees will fall out of the index providing a drop of 20 - 30 basis points. The 2% target will be a challenge - goods inflation averaged 2.4% and service sector inflation averaged 3.1%. Bad news for rail travelers, the rail fares will be indexed to RPI plus 1%. A 4.1% increase in fares is in prospect for 2014, placing additional pressure on retail prices and disposable incomes. The unemployment picture continues to improve, for those who can find work at least. The claimant count fell by 29,000, to a rate of 4.3% in July. The wider LFS data suggests a more modest fall in the three months to June. The rate of unemployment at 7.8% was unchanged, still way above the 7% threshold that may signal a change in monetary policy. Retail sales volumes increased by 3% in July as sunshine and consumer confidence provoked a spending rush, stimulated by sunny weather, a Murray win at Wimbledon and the Royal baby allegedly. Sunny weather boosted sales across a range of products including food, alcohol, clothing and outdoor items. By value retail sales increased by almost 5%. After a slow start to the year, the retail outlook has improved in the summer months. Will this continue? Why not! Employment is increasing and earnings are improving. A further 400,000 are in work compared to this time last year and earnings increased by 2% in the three months to June. We expect the retail rally to continue, though perhaps not at the 3% rate for the rest of the year. Housing - The big story continues to be the housing market. Prices are rising, mortgage activity is increasing, the help to buy scheme is providing a boost to first time buyers. New home build is set to increase by almost 30% this year. The housing market is on the move, time to lock up your fixed rates, as prices rise, the real cost of borrowing is zero, capital appreciation - the bonus. So what does this mean for the year? Our forecast is for growth of around 1.2% plus, rising to 2% in 2014. The economy has turned, the real risk - monetary policy is behind the curve. It is difficult to believe rates will be kept on hold until 2016, watch the US and add six months the best guide as always. Markets were equally sceptical, gilts and treasury yields are rising - gold is beginning to glitter again. What happened to sterling? Sterling responded to the economics news, moving higher. The pound closed at $1.5633, from $1.5505 against the dollar and at €1.1713 from €1.1617 against the euro. The dollar up against the yen closing at ¥97.5 from ¥96.24 Oil Price Brent Crude closed up at $110.40 from $108.22. The average price in August last year was almost $115. We expect oil to average $112 in the current quarter. Markets, were troubled - The Dow fell to 15,081 from 15,425. The FTSE closed down at 6.499.99 from 6,583. It’s a chance for market makers to clean out the bear pit. A good time to make a move. We still think the FTSE will clear 7000 within ten weeks. UK Ten year gilt yields closed at 2.72 from 2.45, US Treasury yields closed up at 2.83 from 2.58. Yields are moving higher, despite the wishes of central bankers. The name is Carney not Canute after all. Gold closed up at $1,377 from $1,315. Still waiting for the next big move but which way? Last week we said, the arguments are building for the bulls. It looks like they have made a decision. That’s all for this week, don’t miss The Sunday Times and Croissants out tomorrow. Check out The Saturday Economist web site, and the new Chart of the Day Page. That’s all for this week, don’t miss The Sunday Times and Croissants out tomorrow. The Saturday Economist.com is mobile friendly, no need for a special app any more! Join the mailing list for The Saturday Economist or forward to a friend to let them share the fun! John John Ashcroft is the Saturday Economist, Chief Economist at the Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce, Economics Adviser to Duff & Phelps and Chief Executive of pro.manchester. The views expressed are personal and in no way reflect the policy statements of organisations with which we work. The material is based upon information which we consider to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or omissions of opinion or fact. In particular, no reliance should be placed on the comments on trends in financial markets. The receipt of this email should not be construed as the giving of investment advice. It's just for fun, what's not to like! Dr John Ashcroft is The Saturday Economist. In the service sector, manufacturing , construction and housing, the news is good news... The August Inflation Report was presented this month by Mark Carney, the new Governor of the Bank of England. The Bank is forecasting growth of almost 1.5% this year and 2.5% next. Inflation will remain above target but base rates may be kept on hold for a further three years. So much for forward guidance. The time may come when the central banker "will take away the punchbowl" but for the moment Carney is "putting his credit card behind the bar". Enjoy. Business activity in the service sector increased in July at fastest rate since late 2006 according to the latest survey data*. The headline Business Activity Index climbed to its highest reading since December 2006, posting 60.2 up from 56.9 in June. Above 50.0 readings have now been recorded for seven months in a row, with growth accelerating continuously throughout this period. *Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI® data. In the manufacturing sector, output was up by 2% in June compared to prior year after a disappointing first half. Capital goods, continue to drive recovery with strong growth of almost 4%. Consumer goods also rallied in June with output of consumer durables increasing by 2%. In construction, output in the second quarter was estimated to be 1.4% higher when compared with Q1 2013. Comparing Q2 2013 with the same period a year ago, construction output actually fell by 0.5%. We expect a further recovery in output into the second half with growth of 1% year on year, boosted by some housing activity. On trade, the deficit on trade in goods reduced to £24.9 billion in Q2 2013 from £26.5 billion in the first quarter. Exports of goods in the second quarter of 2013 reached £78.4 billion, the highest on record. Imports of goods also increased in Q2 2013 to £103.3 billion. Seasonally adjusted, the UK’s deficit on trade in goods and services was estimated to have been £1.5 billion in June, compared with a deficit of £2.6 billion in May. The deficit of £8.1 billion on goods, was offset by an estimated surplus of £6.5 billion on services. So what does this mean for the year ahead? We still expect the deficit trade in goods to increase to £105 billion in the year. Exports of goods will improve as world trade recovers but imports will increase to meet the improving demand in the domestic economy. The service sector will continue to drive recovery with a trend rate accelerating from 1.5% to 2% over the next six months. Manufacturing and construction output will improve in the second half but contribution to growth for the year will be muted following such a poor start. Our forecast for growth this year is around 1.2% with further growth in 2014 of around 2%. Slightly more bearish than the “Bank”. For the moment, the good news keeps on coming, a sustained recovery will require a growth in real household incomes. In the housing market, the Halifax reported prices increasing by almost 5% in July. There is little sign of a great change in the volume of activity for the moment, although the Council of Mortgage Lenders reported a strong recovery in buy to let activity. Lenders advanced 40,000 mortgages, worth £5.1 billion, to buy-to-let investors in the second quarter of 2013. Both the number of buy-to-let loans, and the value of lending, were the highest since the third quarter of 2008. The promise of low rates will push prices higher as the real cost of borrowing falls. Strong rental yields, low costs of borrowing and the prospects of capital appreciation present a heady cocktail for buy to let. More pressure on first time buyers, the real price of life on planet ZIRP. What happened to sterling? Sterling responded to forward guidance, moving higher. The pound closed at $1.5505 from $1.5284 against the dollar and €1.1617 from €1.1504 against the euro. The dollar slipped against the yen closing at ¥96.24 Oil Price Brent Crude closed largely unchanged at $108.22 from $108.95. The average price in August last year was almost $115. Not much pressure on price as we move into the Autumn. Markets, were up - The Dow fell to 15,425 from 15,658. The FTSE closed down slightly to 6,583 from 6,648. Markets trade softly into August. Still a good time to average in. The FTSE will clear 7000 within ten weeks. UK Ten year gilt yields closed at 2.45 from 2.42, US Treasury yields closed down at 2.58 from 2.60. Yields are set to move higher but the path will be slow, we remain parked on the runway of Planet ZIRP, the pilot has gone off the to pub. Gold closed down at $1,315 from $1,308. Still waiting for the next big move but which way? The arguments are building for the bulls. That’s all for this week, don’t miss The Sunday Times and Croissants out tomorrow. Check out The Saturday Economist web site, and the new Chart of the Day Page. That’s all for this week, don’t miss The Sunday Times and Croissants out tomorrow. The Saturday Economist.com is mobile friendly, no need for a special app any more! Join the mailing list for The Saturday Economist or forward to a friend to let them share the fun! John John Ashcroft is the Saturday Economist, Chief Economist at the Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce, Economics Adviser to Duff & Phelps and Chief Executive of pro.manchester. The views expressed are personal and in no way reflect the policy statements of organisations with which we work. The material is based upon information which we consider to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or omissions of opinion or fact. In particular, no reliance should be placed on the comments on trends in financial markets. The receipt of this email should not be construed as the giving of investment advice. It's just for fun, what's not to like! Dr John Ashcroft is The Saturday Economist. Base rates on hold this week as the MPC voted to hold rates at 0.5% and withstand any further pressure to increase QE above the £375 billion level. Speculation continues that rates will remain on hold into 2016 but can we really be so sure that UK base rates will remain at such low levels for a further three year period? In the USA Bernanke has opted for a QE infinite policy, injecting $85 billion monthly into the US economy until unemployment falls below 6.5% or inflation ticks higher above the 2.5% level. So much for forward guidance, it just gives the markets more things to fret about. In Europe the ECB held rates this week, forecasting negative GDP growth this year of -0.6%. Croatia with slowing growth and rising unemployment meets the convergence criteria apparently and will join the ranks of the soaring unemployed in Europe. It really is a difficult international back drop, against which to set rates in the domestic economy. The latest signals are that rates will rise sooner rather than later in the UK as a raft of data suggests the recovery in the second quarter could continue at trend rate of over 2%. Car sales in April and May have increased by almost 10% compared to 2012 and latest data from the British Retail Consortium suggests retail sales in May increased by almost 2% like for like. More convincingly, the latest survey data from Markit/CIPS PMI® surveys suggest the worst may be over in the construction sector. The short lived fillip to output from the outgoing labour administration has now worked it’s way in and out of the system. The latest boost to new home construction from the Treasury Homes for Heroes campaign may be having some effect. The construction index moved into positive territory led by residential building activity. The UK manufacturing sector continued its positive start to the second quarter of 2013. After returning to growth in April, May saw operating conditions improve at the fastest pace in over a year, with growth of production and new orders both improving. At 51.3 in May, up from 50.2 in April, the seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS Purchasing Manager’s Index® (PMI®) posted its highest reading since March 2012 and remained above the neutral 50.0 mark for the second straight month. But it was in the service sector, the most positive signals to growth were found. The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index hit 54.9, up from April’s 52.9, the index signaled a strong rate of growth, the largest since March 2012. New business activity increased at the fastest rate for three years. It has been a great couple of weeks for the Chancellor, with inflation falling, the deficit dropping and growth confirmed in the first quarter. Even the trade figures improved in April according to latest data this week. Alas, the improvement in trade for the wrong reasons, imports fell as exports remained flat. No signs of a booming economy in the second quarter but survey data suggests the recovery is continuing at a respectable pace. The UK economy should experience growth well above 1.0% this year, despite the problems in Europe. No pressure for rate rises in the short term. What happened to sterling? It’s all about dollar weakness this week. Sterling rallied to 1.552 from 1.5198 against the dollar and to 1.1763 from 1.1687 against the Euro. The Euro dollar closed at 1.3216 from 1.2996 and against the Yen, the dollar closed below the critical 100 level at 97.6. Why? US jobs data suggests more QE is guaranteed in the short term. Oil Price Brent Crude closed at $104.56 from $100.39. In June last year Brent Crude averaged $95! The best for inflation may be over, oil prices will be up 10% this month compared to last year. Markets, settlement week. The Dow closed at 15,248 from 15,115. The FTSE closed at 6,411 from 6,583. The easy calls have been made for the moment. Nervous money should move to the sidelines before the Autumn moves. UK Ten year gilt yields increased to 2.09 from 2.03 - US gilt yields closed up at 2.18 from 2.13. The great rotation continues albeit at a subdued rate. As for gold, closed at $1,384 from $1,387. The excitement is over for now, this is a hung chart. That’s all for this week, don’t miss The Sunday Times and Croissants out tomorrow. Join the mailing list for The Saturday Economist or forward to a friend UK Economics news and analysis : no politics, no dogma, no polemics, just facts. John The material is based upon information which we consider to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or omissions of opinion or fact. In particular, no reliance should be placed on the comments on trends in financial markets. The receipt of this email should not be construed as the giving of investment advice. Economics news – Inflation Report, a welcome change in outlook Inflation Report Wednesday, May Inflation Report, last in the series (of 82) for Sir Mervyn King as Governor. “There is a welcome change in the economic outlook". Projections are for growth to be a little stronger and inflation a little weaker than expected three months ago. "A recovery is in sight”. Excellent. The Governor is upbeat. The forecast is for growth - slightly above 1% for the year as a whole, with a gradual recovery thereafter. Base rates are likely to remain on hold until 2016, inflation will moderate from the current 2.8% level but is likely to remain above target by the end of the year. This all fits nicely with The Saturday Economist outlook outlined earlier in February this year! No black clouds, no stormy water, no difficult charts to navigate, the economy is headed for a safe harbour that even a Canadian novice could pilot apparently. The King has had his day, "now it is over to the next generation to have theirs", he added, before leaving the room with an obvious smile on his face. Concerns about Europe Well there are a still a few concerns about Europe! “The main downside risk to the recovery continues to stem from overseas, especially in the euro area”. So it proved with the Eurostat updates on the Euro economy mid week. Not doing quite so well, the flash estimate for the first quarter of 2013 suggested Euroland GDP fell by 1% compared to the first quarter of 2012. It is not looking too good, the pigs are breeding and heading north. The French economy slipped back into recession with a fall of 0.4% following a similar fall in the prior quarter. Even the Germans, took a knock, with output down by 0.3% in the first three months. NIESR predicts negative GDP out turn for the Euro in the year, which fits nicely with the IMF three speed world recovery outlined recently by Christine Lagarde. Hopefully the UK is moving away for European trends and joining the Anglo Saxon growth alliance, as the US recovery gathers pace. Employment UK Not quite so fast as hoped, perhaps, the employment stats released on Wednesday were a little disappointing. The claimant count continued to fall into April, down by 8,000 to 1.52 million and a rate of 4.5%. The number of vacancies also increased slightly but on the wider LFS count, the number in employment actually fell slightly in the three months to March. That’s the great thing about the employment stats, sixty pages with something therein for politicians of any hue. For two handed economists, the data is at times indecipherable, the earnings data, incomprehensible, flat at best. Confused? Check out The Saturday Economist web site, probably the best economics site in the UK. What happened to sterling? Once again, it’s all about the dollar, pushing to 103.1 from 101.5 against the yen and to 1.2838 (1.2992) against the Euro. Sterling also fell to 1.5168 from 1.5356, down slightly against the euro at 1.1811 from 1.1825. Oil Price Brent Crude closed at $104.64 from $103.91. No impact on inflation at this level. Markets, once again the beneficiaries of US hopes. The Dow closed at 15,354 from 15,118 and the FTSE closed at 6,723 from 6,625. Time to sell in May and go away perhaps our US readers cautioned otherwise last week. UK Ten year gilt yields held at 1.90 but US gilt yields closed up 1.95 from 1.90. As for gold, gold closed down at $1,361 from $1,447. That’s all for this week, don’t miss The Sunday Times and Croissants out tomorrow. The Saturday Economist.com is mobile friendly, no need for a special app any more! Join the mailing list for The Saturday Economist or forward to a friend to let them share the fun! Don't forget to check out the new web site The Saturday Economist.com. John The material is based upon information which we consider to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or omissions of opinion or fact. In particular, no reliance should be placed on the comments on trends in financial markets. The receipt of this email should not be construed as the giving of investment advice. It's just for fun, what's not to like! Dr John Ashcroft The Saturday Economist. |
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The material is based upon information which we consider to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or omissions of opinion or fact. In particular, no reliance should be placed on the comments on trends in financial markets. The presentation should not be construed as the giving of investment advice.
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