The Saturday Economist ... Monthly Round Up of Key US Economics Data
U.S Growth
US growth slowed into the final quarter to 2.0%. Growth for 2025 is estimated to be 2.1% down from the prior year high of 2.8%. For 2026 and 20277 we have growth marked at 2.3% rising to 2.5%. 
U.S Inflation Rate
The inflation rate averaged 2.8% in 2025 up from 2.3% in 2024. In the first quarter of 2026 we estimate a rate of 2.4% with core inflation at 2.5%. Our forecast for 2026 is an easing to 2.5%, then further easing. 
U.S Inflation
US inflation was 2.0% in the latest data for October. We expect inflation for the year as a whole to be 1.9% in 2019 rising to 2.0% in 2020. 
U.S Business Confidence
Business confidence fell to the lowest levels since 2016 as concerns rise about trade tariffs and a slow down in the US economy generally. Impeachment concerns will augment doubts about direction ... 
U.S Retail Sales Volumes
Retail sales volumes year on year have increased from the slow down at the start of the year to 2.1% in the latest data for October. We expect volume to increase in 2020 by just over 2% ... |
U.S Unemployment Rate
The US. unemployment rate is estimated to b 4.5% by the end of 2025 stabilised at that level for 2026 falling slightly into 2027. 
U.S Earnings
Latest earnings data suggests wages are rising by 2.7% in the US. We expect a further increase to 2.9% by the end of the year rising to 3.0% in 2020. 
U.S. Manufacturing Output
US manufacturing output fell by 1.3% in October as the economy slows. For the year as a whole we expect a fall of around 1.5% before rallying to 1.5% growth in 2020. 
U.S Consumer Confidence
From a low of 90 in August, consumer confidence has rallied slightly as employment increases and the unemployment rate holds steady at 3.5%. The rise in real incomes will assist sentiment. 
U.S Composite PMI
The IHS Markit Flash U.S. Output Index posted 52.2 in December, up from 52.0 in November. We expect U.S. growth this year of 2.3% slowing from 2.9% last year. Our 2020 expectation is growth of 2.1%. |
U.S. Recession Forecasting Model ... developed by Terrence Zhang of Wells Fargo ...
