The Saturday Economist ... Monthly Round Up of Key UK  Economics Data

Manufacturing ...
Manufacturing output fell by 2.5% in December. Output down by 5.6% from peak in 2008. For the year as a whole we  expect growth of -1.5% following growth of 0.8% in 2018 ...

Producer Prices ...
Producer output prices increased to  1.1% in January, input prices increased by -2.1%. We expect output prices to average around -2.1% in 2020 ...

Unemployment ...
Unemployment held at 1.290 million in December, the unemployment rate held steady at 3.8%. We expect this level to hold (3.8%) through 2020 ...

Retail Sales  ...
Volumes were up 0.8% in January. Values increased by 2.1%. Online sales increased by 4.9% accounting for 19% of all retail activity. Non food on line sales accounted for 30% of all activity

Borrowing ...
The surplus in January was £9.8 billion compared to £11.1 billion last year. For the financial year to date, the comparable figures are £44.9 billion versus £39.0 billion in 2018/19.  For the year as a whole we expect borrowing to rise to around £44.1 billion ...

ONS Monthly GDP Tracker
The monthly GDP growth tracker increased to  1.2% growth in December. Average growth in the final quarter was 0.9%. For the year as a whole growth increased by 1.4%

Retail Prices ...
Retail price inflation CPI basis increased to 1.8% in January. Service sector inflation increased to 2.3%. Goods inflation increased to 1.3%. We expect inflation to average 2.0% in 2020.

Earnings ...
Earnings averaged 2.9% in the three months to December. Real earnings are up by 1.6%. We expect earnings to average just over 3% through 2020 ...

Vacancies ...
Vacancies increased to 810,000 in December. We expect the level of vacancies to be average 800,000 through most of the year ahead ...

Retail Sales ... on line ...
Online sales in the month were up by 4.9%, accounting for 19% of all retail activity. Within five years, online action could account for 25% of all action, if current trends are maintained!

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Trade Deficit
The U.K. trade deficit in goods was £29.2 billion in the third quarter from £50 billion in the first quarter. For the year as a whole we expect the trade deficit in goods to be £150.4 billion compared to £139.4 billion in 2018. 

Quarter Forecast Model
Our quarterly analysis confirms growth of 1.0% in the third quarter of the year. We expect growth of 1.0% in the final quarter the year suggesting growth of 1.2% to 1.3% for the year as whole

 

The Saturday Economist ... Monthly Round Up of Key UK  Economics Data