The Economy Grew By 8% in 2021 ... Rates Set To Rise ...
Economic output exceeded pre-pandemic levels for the first time in November. GDP increased by 0.9% compared to prior month. Compared to prior year output increased by 8.1%. Despite an assumed setback in December, we now think the economy will have grown by 8% for the year as a whole.
In our forecasts for 2021 we model growth at 7.5% with an upside of 8%. We attached greater uncertainty at that time to the outlook for manufacturing and construction. Construction output was up by almost 7% in the month. Manufacturing growth slowed to just 0.4% year on year. Service sector growth was up by 9.5% in November.
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